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   White House 2008: Republican Nomination (p. 2)


Polls listed chronologically.

STATE POLLS are in our subscriber area. INFO     

.

         

Gallup Poll. Sept. 14-16, 2007. N=408 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE 5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. . . ." Names rotated

.

9/14-16/07 9/7-8/07 8/13-16/07    
% % %    
Rudy Giuliani

27

32

31

   
John McCain

18

14

10

   
Fred Thompson

18

20

16

   
Newt Gingrich

11

7

9

   
Mitt Romney

6

9

12

   
Mike Huckabee

3

4

4

   
Ron Paul

3

1

3

   
Duncan Hunter

2

-

1

   
Sam Brownback

1

2

1

   
Tom Tancredo

1

1

1

   
Someone else

-

1

1

   
None (vol.)/Unsure

9

8

10

   
Chuck Hagel

n/a

1

1

   

.

8/3-5/07 7/12-15/07 7/6-8/07 6/11-14/07 6/1-3/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

30

30

30

28

32

Fred Thompson

19

20

20

19

11

John McCain

14

16

16

18

19

Newt Gingrich

10

7

6

7

8

Mitt Romney

6

8

9

7

12

Mike Huckabee

2

2

2

3

2

Ron Paul

2

3

-

2

1

Sam Brownback

1

2

1

2

1

Chuck Hagel

1

-

1

1

-

Duncan Hunter

1

1

2

2

1

Tom Tancredo

1

-

2

-

2

Tommy Thompson

1

1

1

2

1

Someone else

2

1

-

-

1

None (vol.)/Unsure

9

10

9

8

9

Jim Gilmore

n/a

-

-

1

-

.

5/10-13/07 5/4-6/07 4/13-15/07 4/2-5/07 3/23-25/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

29

34

35

38

31

John McCain

23

20

22

16

22

Fred Thompson

12

13

10

10

12

Mitt Romney

8

7

9

6

3

Newt Gingrich

6

8

7

10

8

Sam Brownback

2

1

1

1

3

Tommy Thompson

1

2

1

2

2

Mike Huckabee

1

1

2

1

1

George Pataki

1

1

2

2

-

Tom Tancredo

1

1

-

2

1

Jim Gilmore

-

1

2

-

-

Chuck Hagel

-

1

-

1

-

Duncan Hunter

-

1

-

1

-

Ron Paul

-

-

2

2

1

Someone else

2

-

1

1

2

None (vol.)

5

3

2

2

3

Unsure

8

7

3

4

10

.

3/2-4/07 2/9-11/07 1/12-14/07 12/11-14/06 11/9-12/06
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

44

40

31

28

28

John McCain

20

24

27

28

26

Newt Gingrich

9

9

10

8

7

Mitt Romney

8

5

7

4

5

Tommy Thompson

2

2

2

2

n/a

Sam Brownback

1

3

1

2

1

Duncan Hunter

1

1

-

1

-

George Pataki

1

1

3

1

1

Tom Tancredo

1

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Jim Gilmore

-

2

2

n/a

n/a

Chuck Hagel

-

1

1

1

1

Mike Huckabee

-

2

1

2

1

Someone else

2

1

2

1

2

None (vol.)

3

2

3

3

3

Unsure

8

7

10

7

7

Condoleezza Rice

n/a

n/a

1

12

13

George Allen

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

2

Bill Frist

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

4


 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. Sept. 13-16, 2007. N=340 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE 5.3.

.

"I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008, and I will read the list twice. I would like you to tell me who would be your FIRST CHOICE for the nomination. . . ."  Names rotated

.

Without Gingrich (recalculated, based on second choice of Gingrich voters):

.

9/13-16/07 8/2-5/07 6/21-23/07 6/15-17/07 5/11-13/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

28

28

22

22

28

Fred Thompson

20

15

14

16

9

John McCain

16

17

21

16

25

Mitt Romney

9

8

12

7

9

Mike Huckabee

4

2

2

2

2

Ron Paul

3

1

2

2

1

Sam Brownback

1

-

1

1

1

Duncan Hunter

1

2

-

1

-

Tom Tancredo

-

-

1

1

-

Other (vol.)

2

2

2

3

-

Unsure

17

20

18

25

20

Tommy Thompson

n/a

2

3

4

2

Jim Gilmore

n/a

1

1

1

1

Chuck Hagel

n/a

1

1

1

1

.

Without McCain (recalculated, based on second choice of McCain voters):

.

9/13-16/07 8/2-5/07 6/21-23/07 6/15-17/07 5/11-13/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

33

32

27

26

35

Fred Thompson

20

14

15

18

11

Mitt Romney

10

8

11

8

11

Newt Gingrich

5

9

7

5

9

Mike Huckabee

4

1

4

2

2

Ron Paul

3

-

2

2

1

Sam Brownback

1

1

2

1

1

Duncan Hunter

-

2

-

1

-

Tom Tancredo

-

-

1

1

-

Other (vol.)

2

2

2

3

1

Unsure

21

23

24

28

23

Tommy Thompson

n/a

4

3

4

2

Jim Gilmore

n/a

1

1

1

1

Chuck Hagel

n/a

1

1

1

1

.

Without McCain or Gingrich (recalculated, based on second choice of McCain and Gingrich voters):

.

9/13-16/07 8/2-5/07 6/21-23/07 6/15-17/07 5/11-13/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

34

35

30

28

39

Fred Thompson

22

16

16

17

13

Mitt Romney

10

10

13

9

11

Mike Huckabee

4

2

4

3

3

Ron Paul

3

-

2

2

1

Sam Brownback

1

1

2

1

1

Duncan Hunter

1

2

-

1

-

Tom Tancredo

-

-

1

1

-

Other (vol.)

2

3

2

4

2

Unsure

21

24

25

29

24

Jim Gilmore

n/a

1

1

1

1

Chuck Hagel

n/a

1

1

1

2

Tommy Thompson

n/a

5

3

4

3


 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 11-12, 2007. N=297 Republican voters nationwide. MoE 6.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below]?" Names rotated

.

9/11-12/07 8/21-22/07 7/17-18/07 6/26-27/07  
% % % %  
Rudy Giuliani

32

29

27

29

 
Fred Thompson

21

14

16

15

 
John McCain

15

7

16

17

 
Mitt Romney

8

11

9

8

 
Newt Gingrich

4

5

2

8

 
Duncan Hunter

3

-

-

1

 
Sam Brownback

1

1

1

1

 
Chuck Hagel

1

-

-

1

 
Mike Huckabee

1

3

3

3

 
Ron Paul

1

3

2

-

 
Tom Tancredo

1

1

1

1

 
Other (vol.)

1

1

2

1

 
Unsure

11

23

20

11

 
Wouldn't vote (vol.)

1

3

2

2

 
Tommy Thompson

n/a

n/a

1

2

 
Jim Gilmore

n/a

n/a

n/a

-

 

.

6/5-6/07 5/15-16/07 4/17-18/07 3/27-28/07 2/27-28/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

22

24

35

36

39

John McCain

15

17

16

20

19

Fred Thompson

13

8

8

9

n/a

Mitt Romney

10

9

10

6

6

Newt Gingrich

8

6

9

6

7

Mike Huckabee

3

1

1

3

4

Ron Paul

2

1

-

n/a

n/a

Tommy Thompson

2

2

4

2

-

Chuck Hagel

1

-

-

-

1

Duncan Hunter

1

1

2

1

2

Tom Tancredo

1

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Sam Brownback

-

2

2

1

2

Jim Gilmore

-

1

-

1

-

Other (vol.)

-

1

-

3

4

Unsure

19

24

11

10

16

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

2

2

-

2

1

.

1/30-31/07 12/5-6/06 8/29-30/06 3/14-15/06 6/14-15/05
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

34

30

27

29

29

John McCain

22

23

25

22

26

Newt Gingrich

15

9

14

8

9

Mitt Romney

3

8

5

4

2

Duncan Hunter

2

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Sam Brownback

1

3

n/a

n/a

n/a

Jim Gilmore

-

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Mike Huckabee

-

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Tommy Thompson

-

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Chuck Hagel

-

-

3

1

n/a

Other (vol.)

4

1

3

3

2

Unsure

17

22

14

22

23

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

1

2

1

1

3

George Pataki

n/a

2

4

2

n/a

George Allen

n/a

n/a

3

3

3

Bill Frist

n/a

n/a

2

5

3


 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Sept. 7-9, 2007. N=379 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE 5.

.

"Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008. . . ." Names rotated

.

9/7-9/07        
%        
Rudy Giuliani

27

       
Fred Thompson

26

       
John McCain

14

       
Mitt Romney

10

       
Newt Gingrich

6

       
Mike Huckabee

4

       
Tom Tancredo

2

       
Sam Brownback

1

       
Duncan Hunter

1

       
Ron Paul

1

       

Unsure

8

       

.

8/6-8/07 6/22-24/07 5/4-6/07 4/10-12/07 3/9-11/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

27

30

25

27

34

Fred Thompson

19

19

13

11

n/a

John McCain

14

18

23

24

18

Newt Gingrich

12

8

9

8

9

Mitt Romney

11

9

10

10

9

Sam Brownback

3

1

2

1

2

Mike Huckabee

2

2

3

-

1

Tom Tancredo

2

1

2

1

1

Ron Paul

1

2

1

1

2

Tommy Thompson

1

1

1

1

1

Duncan Hunter

-

-

1

-

-

Unsure

8

10

8

13

17

Jim Gilmore

n/a

-

2

-

2

Chuck Hagel

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

2

George Pataki

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

3

.

1/19-21/07 12/5-7/06 11/17-19/06 10/27-29/06 8/30 - 9/2/06
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

32

29

33

29

32

John McCain

26

24

30

27

21

Newt Gingrich

9

13

9

12

12

Mitt Romney

7

6

9

7

6

Jim Gilmore

3

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

George Pataki

3

2

1

5

3

Sam Brownback

2

2

2

1

1

Chuck Hagel

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Mike Huckabee

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Duncan Hunter

1

1

2

n/a

n/a

Ron Paul

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Tom Tancredo

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Tommy Thompson

1

2

3

n/a

n/a

Unsure

12

23

8

11

14

Bill Frist

n/a

n/a

3

6

4

George Allen

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

7


 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 7-8, 2007. N=425 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE 5.

.

"Suppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to [see below]. Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president: [see below]?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani
Fred
Thompson
Unsure    
% % %    

9/7-8/07

53 40 8    

8/13-16/07

59 34 7    

8/3-5/07

55 38 7    

7/12-15/07

54 34 11    

6/11-14/07

53 41 7    

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Sept. 4-7, 2007. N=401 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide. MoE 5. Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.

.

Without McCain (recalculated, based on second choice of McCain voters):

.

9/4-7/07 7/18-21/07      
% %      
Rudy Giuliani

36

39

     
Fred Thompson

21

16

     
Mitt Romney

12

10

     
Newt Gingrich

6

8

     
Mike Huckabee

5

2

     
Sam Brownback

2

1

     
Duncan Hunter

1

2

     
Ron Paul

1

2

     
Tom Tancredo

-

1

     
Other (vol.)

1

1

     
None of these (vol.)

2

5

     
Wouldn't vote (vol.)

2

2

     
Unsure

11

6

     
Tommy Thompson

n/a

4

     

.

"Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president this year -- are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?"

.

Satisfied Dissatisfied Unsure    
% % %    
9/4-7/07

68

26

5

   
7/18-21/07

65

32

3

   
5/29 - 6/1/07

68

28

4

   
4/12-15/07

65

31

3

   
2/22-25/07

73

24

3

   

 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. Aug. 22-26, 2007. N=604 Republican registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"Are you generally satisfied with the candidates now running for the Republican nomination for president, or do you wish there were more choices?"

.

Generally
Satisfied
With There
Were More
Unsure    
% % %    

8/22-26/07

54 38 8    

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Aug. 21-22, 2007. N=314 Republican voters nationwide. MoE 5.5.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below]?" Names rotated

.

Without Fred Thompson (recalculated, based on second choice of Fred Thompson voters):

.

8/21-22/07 7/17-18/07 6/26-27/07 6/5-6/07 5/15-16/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

36

34

34

26

26

Mitt Romney

13

12

10

14

12

John McCain

9

18

21

16

19

Newt Gingrich

6

3

11

9

7

Mike Huckabee

4

3

3

3

1

Ron Paul

3

2

-

2

1

Sam Brownback

1

1

1

-

2

Tom Tancredo

1

1

1

1

1

Chuck Hagel

-

-

1

1

-

Duncan Hunter

-

-

1

1

1

Other (vol.)

1

2

1

-

1

Unsure

25

22

13

20

25

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

3

2

3

3

2

Tommy Thompson

n/a

1

2

3

2

Jim Gilmore

n/a

n/a

-

-

1


 

Gallup Poll. Aug. 13-16, 2007. N=451 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE 5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. . . ." Names rotated

.

Without Fred Thompson, Gingrich, Hagel (recalculated, based on second choice):

.

8/13-16/07        
%        
Rudy Giuliani

39

       
Mitt Romney

17

       
John McCain

15

       
Mike Huckabee

7

       
Ron Paul

3

       
Sam Brownback

2

       
Duncan Hunter

2

       
Tom Tancredo

1

       
Someone else

1

       
None (vol.)/Unsure

13

       

 

Quinnipiac University Poll. Aug. 7-13, 2007. N=611 registered Republicans nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"If the 2008 Republican primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"

.

8/7-13/07 6/5-11/07 4/25 - 5/1/07 2/13-19/07  
% % % %  
Rudy Giuliani

28

27

27

40

 
Mitt Romney

15

10

8

7

 
Fred Thompson

12

15

14

n/a

 
John McCain

11

15

19

18

 
Newt Gingrich

7

5

8

10

 
Mike Huckabee

2

2

2

2

 
Ron Paul

2

1

-

1

 
Sam Brownback

1

1

1

1

 
Duncan Hunter

1

1

1

2

 
Tom Tancredo

1

1

-

1

 
Tommy Thompson

1

1

1

1

 
Jim Gilmore

-

-

-

-

 
Other (vol.)

3

2

2

1

 
Wouldn't vote (vol.)

2

1

1

-

 
Unsure

16

17

16

15

 
George Pataki

n/a

n/a

1

1

 
Chuck Hagel

n/a

n/a

-

-

 

 

CBS News Poll. Aug. 8-12, 2007. N=295 Republican primary voters nationwide.

.

"Are you generally satisfied with the candidates now running for the Republican nomination for president, or do you wish there were more choices?"

.

Satisfied More Choices Unsure    
% % %    

8/8-12/07

46

49

5

   

7/9-17/07

36

60

4

   

6/26-28/07

30

61

9

   

5/18-23/07

38

57

5

   

 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Aug. 3-5, 2007. N=406 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE 5.

.

"Suppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to [see below]. Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president: [see below]?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani
John
McCain
Unsure    
% % %    

8/3-5/07

62 33 5    

6/1-3/07

56 38 6    

5/10-13/07

52 42 6    

5/4-6/07

56 38 6    

4/13-15/07

57 39 4    

4/2-5/07

57 38 6    

3/23-25/07

54 39 7    

3/2-4/07

58 34 8    

2/9-11/07

57 39 4    

1/5-7/07

50 42 8    

 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. July 19-22, 2007. Republican primary voters nationwide.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates were [see below]?" If "All": "If you absolutely had to choose, which one person would you support?" Names rotated. N=128 Republican primary voters.

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani 36        
Fred Thompson 21        
Mitt Romney 11        
Tommy Thompson 6        
Sam Brownback 5        
Ron Paul 2        
Duncan Hunter 1        
Tom Tancredo 1        
Mike Huckabee -        
None of these (vol.) 5        
Other (vol.) 4        
Unsure 8        

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. July 18-21, 2007. N=403 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide. MoE 5. Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.

.

Without Fred Thompson (recalculated, based on second choice of Fred Thompson voters):

.

7/18-21/07 5/29 - 6/1/07 4/12-15/07    
% % %    
Rudy Giuliani

39

37

37

   
John McCain

17

21

22

   
Mitt Romney

10

9

10

   
Newt Gingrich

8

10

7

   
Mike Huckabee

3

2

1

   
Tommy Thompson

3

1

2

   
Duncan Hunter

2

1

1

   
Ron Paul

2

1

1

   
Tom Tancredo

2

1

1

   
Sam Brownback

1

1

1

   
None of these (vol.)

6

4

5

   
Unsure

7

9

8

   
Jim Gilmore

n/a

1

1

   
George Pataki

n/a

n/a

1

   
Chuck Hagel

n/a

n/a

-

   

 

CBS News/New York Times Poll. July 9-17, 2007. Republican primary voters, from a sample of 1,554 adults nationwide.

.

"Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice among [see below]. Who would you most like to see nominated: [see below], or would you rather see someone else nominated?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani
John
McCain
Mitt
Romney
Other/None Unsure
% % % % %

7/9-17/07

37

19

10

26

8

6/26-28/07

42

26

8

19

5

5/18-23/07

36

22

15

21

6

4/9-12/07

47

25

10

13

5


 

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 7-10, 2007. N=408 Republican primary voters nationwide. MoE 5.

.

"What if the primary or caucus in your state was narrowed down to Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson? Regardless of your choice for president, if the election were being held today, for whom would you vote: Giuliani, McCain, Romney or Thompson?" Names rotated. Results include leaners.

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

32

       
Fred Thompson

28

       
John McCain

17

       
Mitt Romney

14

       
Unsure

9

       

 

McLaughlin & Associates (R). May 28-June 1, 2007. N=350 Republican voters nationwide. MoE 5.2. Note: McLaughlin & Associates polls for Fred Thompson. This question is from the McLaughlin & Associates National Omnibus Poll and was not paid for by the Thompson exploratory committee.

.

Preference for Republican Presidential Nominee:

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

24

       
Fred Thompson

18

       
John McCain

17

       
Mitt Romney

7

       
Newt Gingrich

5

       
Sam Brownback

1

       
Duncan Hunter

1

       
Mike Huckabee

1

       
Tom Tancredo

1

       
Ron Paul

0

       
Jim Gilmore

0

       
Tommy Thompson

0

       
Unsure

26

       

 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. May 16-20, 2007. N=196 Republican primary voters nationwide.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates were [see below]?" If "All": "If you absolutely had to choose, which one person would you support?" Names rotated

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani 26        
John McCain 17        
Newt Gingrich 10        
Fred Thompson 9        
Mitt Romney 8        
Sam Brownback 2        
Mike Huckabee 2        
Tom Tancredo 2        
Jim Gilmore 1        
Duncan Hunter 1        
Ron Paul 1        
Tommy Thompson 1        
Other (vol.) 1        
None of these (vol.) 2        
Unsure 18        

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. May 15-16, 2007. N=900 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republican voters (MoE 6).

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below]?" Names rotated

.

Without Giuliani (recalculated, based on second choice of Giuliani voters):

.

%        
John McCain

25

       
Mitt Romney

13

       
Fred Thompson

10

       
Newt Gingrich

7

       
Sam Brownback

2

       
Tom Tancredo

2

       
Tommy Thompson

2

       
Jim Gilmore

1

       
Mike Huckabee

1

       
Duncan Hunter

1

       
Ron Paul

1

       
Chuck Hagel

-

       

.

Without McCain (recalculated, based on second choice of McCain voters):

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

30

       
Mitt Romney

10

       
Fred Thompson

8

       
Newt Gingrich

6

       
Sam Brownback

3

       
Mike Huckabee

2

       
Tommy Thompson

2

       
Jim Gilmore

1

       
Chuck Hagel

1

       
Duncan Hunter

1

       
Ron Paul

1

       
Tom Tancredo

1

       

.

Without Romney (recalculated, based on second choice of Romney voters):

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

28

       
John McCain

18

       
Fred Thompson

8

       
Newt Gingrich

7

       
Sam Brownback

2

       
Mike Huckabee

2

       
Tom Tancredo

2

       
Tommy Thompson

2

       
Jim Gilmore

1

       
Duncan Hunter

1

       
Ron Paul

1

       
Chuck Hagel

-

       

 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. May 11-13, 2007. N=333 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE 5.4.

.

"I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008, and I will read the list twice. I would like you to tell me who would be your FIRST CHOICE for the nomination. . . ."  Names rotated

.

Without Fred Thompson (recalculated, based on second choice of Thompson voters):

.

5/11-13/07 4/27-29/07 3/29 - 4/1/07
% % %
Rudy Giuliani

28

33

38

 

 

John McCain

25

22

18

 

 

Mitt Romney

10

13

8

 

 

Newt Gingrich

8

7

10

 

 

Mike Huckabee

2

2

2

 

 

Tommy Thompson

2

4

3

 

 

Sam Brownback

1

1

1

 

 

Jim Gilmore

1

-

1

 

 

Chuck Hagel

1

1

-

 

 

Ron Paul

1

1

-

 

 

Tom Tancredo

1

3

-

 

 

Duncan Hunter

-

1

-

 

 

Other (vol.)

1

-

1

 

 

Unsure

20

13

14

 

 

George Pataki

n/a

n/a

2

 

 

.

Without Fred Thompson or Gingrich (recalculated, based on second choice of Thompson and Gingrich voters):

.

5/11-13/07 4/27-29/07 3/29 - 4/1/07
% % %
Rudy Giuliani

31

36

42

 

 

John McCain

27

23

20

 

 

Mitt Romney

11

14

9

 

 

Mike Huckabee

2

2

2

 

 

Tommy Thompson

2

4

4

 

 

Sam Brownback

1

1

2

 

 

Jim Gilmore

1

-

1

 

 

Chuck Hagel

1

1

-

 

 

Ron Paul

1

1

-

 

 

Tom Tancredo

1

3

-

 

 

Duncan Hunter

-

1

-

 

 

Other (vol.)

1

-

1

 

 

Unsure

21

15

14

 

 

George Pataki

n/a

n/a

3

 

 


 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. May 4-6, 2007. N=414 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE 5.

.

"Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008. . . ." Names rotated

.

Without Fred Thompson (recalculated, based on second choice of Fred Thompson voters):

.

5/4-6/07 4/10-12/07      
% %      
Rudy Giuliani

30

31

     
John McCain

25

25

     
Mitt Romney

11

12

     
Newt Gingrich

10

10

     
Mike Huckabee

4

1

     
Sam Brownback

3

1

     
Tom Tancredo

3

1

     
Jim Gilmore

2

1

     
Tommy Thompson

2

1

     
Duncan Hunter

1

-

     
Ron Paul

1

1

     

Unsure

8

14

     
Chuck Hagel

n/a

1

     
George Pataki

n/a

2

     

.

"How satisfied are you with the field of Republican candidates running for president? Are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not satisfied at all?"

.

Very
Satisfied
Fairly
Satisfied
Not Very
Satisfied
Not at All
Satisfied
Unsure
% % % % %

5/4-6/07

20

50

21

5

3


 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. May 2-3, 2007. N=324 registered Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE 7.

.

"Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination next year comes down to a choice between [see below]. Who would you MOST like to see nominated?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward [see below]?"

.

Rudy
Giuliani
John
McCain
Unsure    
% % %    

5/2-3/07

56 41 3    

2/28 - 3/1/07

59 34 7    

1/24-25/07

48 44 8    

.

Rudy
Giuliani
Mitt
Romney
Unsure    
% % %    

5/2-3/07

71 20 9    

2/28 - 3/1/07

70 20 10    

1/24-25/07

72 17 11    

.

John
McCain
Mitt
Romney
Unsure    
% % %    

5/2-3/07

66 21 13    

2/28 - 3/1/07

59 26 15    

1/24-25/07

69 19 12    

.

"All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the choice of candidates running for your party's presidential nomination?"

.

Satisfied Dissatisfied Unsure    
% % %    

5/2-3/07

52 38 10    

 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. April 27-29, 2007. N=258 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE 6.1.

.

"I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008, and I will read the list twice. I would like you to tell me who would be your FIRST CHOICE for the nomination. . . ."  Names rotated

.

Without Giuliani (recalculated, based on second choice of Giuliani voters):

.

4/27-29/07        
%        
John McCain

34

       
Mitt Romney

16

       
Fred Thompson

11

       
Newt Gingrich

10

       
Mike Huckabee

3

       
Tom Tancredo

2

       
Tommy Thompson

2

       
Sam Brownback

1

       
Chuck Hagel

1

       
Duncan Hunter

1

       
Ron Paul

1

       
Jim Gilmore

-

       
Unsure

16

       

.

3/29 - 4/1/07 2/15-18/07 11/9-12/06 8/25-27/06 6/1-4/06
% % % % %
John McCain

27

37

34

30

37

Newt Gingrich

13

20

16

14

9

Fred Thompson

12

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Mitt Romney

8

12

10

8

10

George Pataki

7

6

5

3

6

Tommy Thompson

4

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Jim Gilmore

2

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Mike Huckabee

2

2

2

3

-

Sam Brownback

1

3

1

1

2

Tom Tancredo

1

2

1

4

3

Chuck Hagel

-

1

1

1

1

Duncan Hunter

-

1

1

n/a

n/a

Other (vol.)

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Unsure

20

13

24

22

21

Bill Frist

n/a

n/a

5

11

5

George Allen

n/a

n/a

n/a

4

5


 

CBS News Poll. April 9-12, 2007. N=274 Republican primary voters nationwide.

.

"Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Who would you most like to see nominated: McCain or Giuliani, or neither of these two candidates?"

.

Rudy
Giuliani
John
McCain
Neither/
Other
Unsure
% % % %

4/9-12/07

52

29

15

4

3/7-11/07

43

34

11

12

2/8-11/07

50

29

13

8


 

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. April 5-9, 2007. N=437 Republican primary voters nationwide. MoE 5.

.

"What if the primary or caucus in your state was narrowed down to Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney? Regardless of your choice for president, if the election were being held today, for whom would you vote: Giuliani, McCain or Romney?" Names rotated. Results include leaners.

.

Giuliani McCain Romney Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
4/5-9/07

48

25

20

3

4


 

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. April 5-9, 2007. N=437 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE 4.

.

"What if your choices for the Republican nomination were just John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson -- which one would you vote for if you had to decide today?" Names rotated

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

35

       
John McCain

20

       
Newt Gingrich

11

       
Mitt Romney

10

       
Fred Thompson

10

       
Other (vol.)

5

       
Will not vote (vol.)

3

       
Unsure

5

       

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. March 27-28, 2007. N=900 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republican voters (MoE 6).

.

"If Rudy Giuliani and John McCain were the only choices in the Republican primary, how would you vote?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani
John
McCain
Unsure Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
 
% % % %  

3/27-28/07

50

37

10

4

 

2/13-14/07

56

31

11

2

 

12/5-6/06

42

40

15

3

 

8/29-30/06

46

36

16

2

 

 

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. March 23-26, 2007. N=407 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican.

.

"Now I'm going to read a list of candidates who might be running for the Republican Party presidential nomination in 2008. If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, listen carefully to the names and then tell me which candidate you would be most likely to vote for. . . ." Names rotated

.

3/23-26/07 3/9-12/07 2/23-26/07 1/22-23/07  
% % % %  
Rudy Giuliani

35

40

38

26

 
John McCain

22

20

24

30

 
Newt Gingrich

12

10

12

14

 
Mitt Romney

11

7

7

5

 
Sam Brownback

2

2

2

3

 
Jim Gilmore

1

1

-

1

 
Mike Huckabee

1

2

1

1

 
Chuck Hagel

-

1

1

1

 
Tom Tancredo

-

-

1

1

 
Other (vol.)

3

2

1

1

 
Will not vote (vol.)

1

2

1

1

 
Unsure

11

13

12

14

 
George Pataki

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

 

.

"What if your choices for the Republican nomination were just John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich -- which one would you vote for?" Names rotated

.

3/23-26/07 3/9-12/07      
% %      
Rudy Giuliani

35

43

     
John McCain

28

24

     
Newt Gingrich

14

13

     
Mitt Romney

12

9

     
Other (vol.)

1

-

     
Will not vote (vol.)

1

1

     
Unsure

9

9

     

 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). March 20-25, 2007. N=465 likely Republican primary/caucus voters nationwide.

.

"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about next year's Republican primary/caucus for president, if the Republican primary/caucus for president were held today and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

41

       
John McCain

23

       
Mitt Romney

12

       
Tommy Thompson

4

       
Sam Brownback

2

       
Mike Huckabee

2

       
Duncan Hunter

2

       
Tom Tancredo

2

       
Ron Paul

1

       
Jim Gilmore

0

       
Other (vol.)

2

       
None (vol.)

1

       
Unsure

8

       

 

McLaughlin & Associates (R). March 21-25, 2007. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. Results below are among Republicans and independents.

.

Preference for Republican Presidential Nominee:

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

29

       
John McCain

19

       
Newt Gingrich

7

       
Fred Thompson

6

       
Mitt Romney

5

       
Mike Huckabee

2

       
Sam Brownback

1

       
Chuck Hagel

1

       
George Pataki

1

       
Tommy Thompson

1

       
Ron Paul

0

       
Tom Tancredo

0

       
Duncan Hunter

0

       
Jim Gilmore

0

       
Unsure

28

       

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R). March 2-5, 2007. Asked of Republicans, and non-Republicans who said they would vote in a Republican presidential primary (from a total sample of 1,007 adults nationwide).

.

"Thinking of these same candidates again, are there any candidates for whom you would definitely NOT vote for the Republican nomination for president?"

.

3/2-5/07        
%        
John McCain

20

       
Newt Gingrich

14

       
Mitt Romney

9

       
Rudy Giuliani

7

       
Sam Brownback

6

       
Mike Huckabee

4

       
Tommy Thompson

3

       
Duncan Hunter

2

       
None (vol.)

24

       
Unsure

22

       

.

"If the choice for the Republican nomination came down to Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?"

.

Rudy
Giuliani
John
McCain
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure  
% % % %  

3/2-5/07

55 34 1 10  

 

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Feb. 23-26, 2007. N=447 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican.

.

"What if your choices for the Republican nomination were just John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani -- which one would you vote for?" Names rotated

.

2/23-26/07 1/22-23/07      
% %      
Rudy Giuliani

49

40

     
John McCain

30

43

     
Mitt Romney

12

8

     
Other (vol.)

1

-

     
Will not vote (vol.)

3

1

     
Unsure

6

8

     

 

Zogby America Poll. Feb. 22-24, 2007. N=397 likely Republican primary voters nationwide. MoE 5.0.

.

"If the Republican primary for president were held today, for whom would you vote: [see below]?"

.

2/22-24/07 1/5-9/07 12/6-8/05    
% % %    
Rudy Giuliani

29

21

17

   
John McCain

20

17

19

   
Mitt Romney

9

6

2

   
Newt Gingrich

7

8

4

   
Condoleezza Rice

7

7

12

   
Sam Brownback

4

1

1

   
Tom Tancredo

1

n/a

n/a

   
Duncan Hunter

1

-

n/a

   
Tommy Thompson

-

2

n/a

   
Chuck Hagel

-

1

1

   
Mike Huckabee

-

1

1

   
Someone else

4

5

4

   
Unsure

19

23

26

   
Jeb Bush

n/a

7

4

   
George Pataki

n/a

1

1

   
Fred Thompson

n/a

1

1

   
Bill Frist

n/a

n/a

3

   
George Allen

n/a

n/a

3

   
Tim Pawlenty

n/a

n/a

2

   
Rick Santorum

n/a

n/a

-

   
Haley Barbour

n/a

n/a

-

   
Mark Sanford

n/a

n/a

-

   

 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. Feb. 15-18, 2007. N=320 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE 5.5.

.

"I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008, and I will read the list twice. I would like you to tell me who would be your FIRST CHOICE for the nomination. . . ."  Names rotated

.

Without McCain (recalculated, based on second choice of McCain voters):

.

%
Rudy Giuliani

40

 

 

 

 

Newt Gingrich

17

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney

14

 

 

 

 

George Pataki

5

 

 

 

 

Sam Brownback

2

 

 

 

 

Mike Huckabee

2

 

 

 

 

Duncan Hunter

2

 

 

 

 

Tom Tancredo

2

 

 

 

 

Tommy Thompson

2

 

 

 

 

Jim Gilmore

1

 

 

 

 

Chuck Hagel

1

 

 

 

 

Unsure

12

 

 

 

 


 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Feb. 13-14, 2007. N=900 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republican voters.

.

"If John McCain and Newt Gingrich were the only choices in the Republican primary, how would you vote?" Names rotated

.

John
McCain
Newt
Gingrich
Unsure Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
% % % %

2/13-14/07

55

28

14

3


 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Jan. 19-21, 2007. N=365 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE 5.

.

"Regardless of who you support, please tell me whether you would or would not like to see each of the following people run for the Republican nomination for president . . . ." Names rotated

.

Would Would Not Unsure    
% % %    
Rudy Giuliani

77

17

6

   
John McCain

71

23

7

   
Newt Gingrich

44

46

9

   
Mitt Romney

34

36

30

   

 

WNBC/Marist Poll. Nov. 27-Dec. 3, 2006. N=967 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republicans and Republican leaners. MoE 5.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?"

.

11/27 -
12/3/06
9/18-20/06 2/13-15/06 10/12-13 &
17/05
2/14-16/05
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

24

23

22

21

25

John McCain

23

15

22

19

21

Condoleezza Rice

15

20

22

21

14

Newt Gingrich

8

7

5

5

5

Mitt Romney

4

4

4

-

1

Bill Frist

3

4

2

2

3

Chuck Hagel

2

-

1

1

-

Tommy Thompson

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Mike Huckabee

1

-

n/a

n/a

n/a

Tom Tancredo

1

1

1

1

n/a

George Pataki

1

2

2

2

1

Sam Brownback

-

1

-

2

n/a

Duncan Hunter

-

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Unsure

17

21

17

17

20

George Allen

n/a

2

2

4

-

Jeb Bush

n/a

n/a

n/a

5

7

Rick Santorum

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

Bill Owens

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

2


 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Nov. 9-12, 2006. N=1,191 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republican voters.

.

"Now I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in 2008. AFTER I READ ALL THE NAMES, please tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Republican Party's candidate for president." If unsure: "Well as of today, to whom do you most lean?" Names rotated

.

11/9-12/06 8/9-13/06      
% %      
Rudy Giuliani

27

24

     
John McCain

26

20

     
Condoleezza Rice

20

21

     
Mitt Romney

7

4

     
Newt Gingrich

6

9

     
Bill Frist

4

3

     
Sam Brownback

1

1

     
Other (vol.)

1

1

     
None (vol.)

2

9

     
Unsure

6

3

     
George Allen

n/a

5

     

 

McLaughlin & Associates (R). Nov. 7, 2006. N=1,000 Nov. 2006 general election voters nationwide.

.

Preference for Republican Presidential Nominee:

.

Republicans Republicans +
Independents
     
% %      
John McCain

28

26

     
Rudy Giuliani

22

22

     
Condoleezza Rice

13

12

     
Newt Gingrich

5

4

     
Mitt Romney

4

4

     
George Allen

2

2

     
Bill Frist

2

1

     
George Pataki

1

1

     
Mike Huckabee

1

1

     
Sam Brownback

1

-

     
Tom Tancredo

1

-

     
Duncan Hunter

0

-

     

Unsure

22

27

     

 

Gallup Poll. June 1-4, 2006. N=419 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE 5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. . . ." Names rotated

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

29

       
John McCain

24

       
Newt Gingrich

8

       
Mitt Romney

6

       
Bill Frist

6

       
George Allen

5

       
Sam Brownback

2

       
Mike Huckabee

2

       
George Pataki

1

       
Someone else

3

       
None (vol.)

4

       
All/Any (vol.)

1

       
Unsure

9

       

 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. March 16-19, 2006. N=602 registered Republicans nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates were [see below]?" If "All": "If you absolutely had to choose, which one person would you support?"

.

%        
John McCain 25        
Rudy Giuliani 23        
Newt Gingrich 7        
Bill Frist 5        
Mitt Romney 4        
George Allen 3        
George Pataki 2        
Chuck Hagel 1        
Tom Tancredo 1        
None of these (vol.) 4        
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1        
Unsure 22        

.

"Now, suppose the 2008 Republican presidential primary were being held today between John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani
John
McCain
Unsure Refused  
% % % %  
3/16-19/06 42 40 14 3  

 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. Feb. 23-26, 2006. Republican and Republican-leaning voters nationwide.

.

"Thinking now about the Republican nomination for president in 2008, will you support John McCain, the senator from Arizona, Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City, or someone else for the Republican nomination for president in 2008?" Names rotated

.

John
McCain
Rudy
Giuliani
Newt
Gingrich
Someone
Else
Unsure
% % % % %

2/23-26/06

30 30 11 12 16

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Feb. 9-12, 2006. N=400 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE 5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. Virginia Senator George Allen; Kansas Senator Sam Brownback; Tennessee Senator Bill Frist; former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani; Arizona Senator John McCain; Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney." Names rotated

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

33

       
John McCain

28

       
George Allen

7

       
Bill Frist

6

       
Mitt Romney

3

       
Sam Brownback

1

       
Condoleezza Rice (vol.)

1

       
Someone else

3

       
None (vol.)

6

       
Unsure

12

       

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Dec. 9-11, 2005. N=405 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE 5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. Virginia Senator George Allen; Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour; Tennessee Senator Bill Frist; Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani; Arizona Senator John McCain; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney." Names rotated

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

30

       
John McCain

22

       
Condoleezza Rice

18

       
George Allen

7

       
Bill Frist

3

       
Haley Barbour

2

       
Mitt Romney

2

       
Someone else

3

       
None (vol.)

3

       
Unsure

10

       

 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. Dec. 8-11, 2005. N=380 Republicans/Republican leaners nationwide.

.

"I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008, and I will read the list twice. I would like you to tell me who would be your first choice for the nomination: John McCain, the senator from Arizona; Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City; Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House; Bill Frist, the senator from Tennessee; Rick Santorum, the senator from Pennsylvania; Mitt Romney, the governor of Massachusetts; George Allen, the senator from Virginia; George Pataki, the governor of New York; Mike Huckabee, the governor of Arkansas; Mark Sanford, the governor of South Carolina; Chuck Hagel, the senator from Nebraska; Sam Brownback, the senator from Kansas; or Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota?" Names rotated

.

%
John McCain

25

 

 

 

 

Rudy Giuliani

25

Newt Gingrich

12

 

 

 

 

Bill Frist

5

 

 

 

 

Rick Santorum

4

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney

4

 

 

 

 

George Allen

3

 

 

 

 

George Pataki

3

 

 

 

 

Mike Huckabee

2

 

 

 

 

Mark Sanford

2

 

 

 

 

Chuck Hagel

2

 

 

 

 

Sam Brownback

1

 

 

 

 

Tim Pawlenty

-

 

 

 

 

Unsure

14

 

 

 

 

.

Without Giuliani (recalculated, based on second choice of Giuliani voters):

%
John McCain

30

 

 

 

 

Newt Gingrich

16

 

 

 

 

Bill Frist

7

 

 

 

 

George Pataki

6

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney

5

 

 

 

 

Rick Santorum

5

 

 

 

 

George Allen

5

 

 

 

 

Chuck Hagel

2

 

 

 

 

Mike Huckabee

2

 

 

 

 

Mark Sanford

2

 

 

 

 

Sam Brownback

1

 

 

 

 

Tim Pawlenty

-

 

 

 

 

Unsure

18

 

 

 

 

.

Without McCain (recalculated, based on second choice of McCain voters):

%
Rudy Giuliani

33

 

 

 

 

Newt Gingrich

15

 

 

 

 

Bill Frist

7

 

 

 

 

Rick Santorum

6

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney

6

 

 

 

 

George Pataki

5

 

 

 

 

George Allen

4

 

 

 

 

Mike Huckabee

3

 

 

 

 

Mark Sanford

2

 

 

 

 

Chuck Hagel

2

 

 

 

 

Sam Brownback

2

 

 

 

 

Tim Pawlenty

-

 

 

 

 

Unsure

17

 

 

 

 


 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. Nov. 11-15, 2005. Registered voters nationwide.

.

"Suppose the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would you support if the candidates were [see below]?" If "All": "If you absolutely had to choose, which one person would you support?" Names rotated. N=326 Republican voters, MoE 5.4.

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani 22        
Condoleezza Rice 22        
John McCain 21        
Jeb Bush 11        
Newt Gingrich 6        
Bill Frist 3        
None (vol.) 3        
Unsure 11        

.

"If John McCain were to run in the Republican primary election for president in 2008, how likely would you be to vote for him: very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?" N=326 Republican voters, MoE 5.4.

.

Very
Likely
Somewhat
Likely
Not Very
Likely
Not At All
Likely
Unsure
% % % % %
11/11-15/05 27 39 14 10 10

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Nov. 4-7, 2005. N=1,003 adults nationwide.

.

"Let me mention some people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008. If the next Republican primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote: [see below]?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?" Asked of registered voters who are Republicans/leaners, or are independents who would vote in a Republican presidential primary.

.

%
Rudy Giuliani

34

John McCain

31

 

 

 

 

Newt Gingrich

8

 

 

 

 

Bill Frist

5

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney

3

 

 

 

 

George Allen

3

 

 

 

 

Sam Brownback

1

 

 

 

 

Other (vol.)

2

 

 

 

 

None (vol.)

2

 

 

 

 

Unsure

11

 

 

 

 

.

"Are there any candidates on this list for whom you would definitely NOT vote for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination?" Multiple responses accepted. Asked of registered voters who are Republicans/leaners, or are independents who would vote in a Republican presidential primary.

.

%
Newt Gingrich

21

 

 

 

 

John McCain

19

 

 

 

 

Rudy Giuliani

8

Bill Frist

5

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney

3

 

 

 

 

Sam Brownback

2

 

 

 

 

George Allen

1

 

 

 

 

None (vol.)

26

 

 

 

 

Unsure

17

 

 

 

 


 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 27-28, 2005. N=900 registered voters nationwide.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below]?"  Names rotated. Among Republican voters; MoE 5

.

%
Rudy Giuliani

26

John McCain

23

 

 

 

 

Condoleezza Rice

18

 

 

 

 

Newt Gingrich

7

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney

3

 

 

 

 

Bill Frist

2

 

 

 

 

George Allen

2

 

 

 

 

Other (vol.)

2

 

 

 

 

Unsure

17

 

 

 

 

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

1

 

 

 

 


 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Aug. 5-7, 2005. N=406 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE 5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008: Virginia Senator George Allen, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, Tennessee Senator Bill Frist, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, Arizona Senator John McCain, New York Governor George Pataki, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney." Names rotated

.

%
Rudy Giuliani

27

John McCain

24

 

 

 

 

Condoleezza Rice

19

 

 

 

 

Bill Frist

9

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney

4

 

 

 

 

George Pataki

3

 

 

 

 

George Allen

3

 

 

 

 

Sam Brownback

2

 

 

 

 

Chuck Hagel

-

 

 

 

 

None (vol.)

2

 

 

 

 

All/Any (vol.)

1

 

 

 

 

Unsure

6

 

 

 

 


 

Zogby America Poll. June 20-22, 2005. Nationwide.

.

"If the Republican primary for president were held today and the candidates were John McCain, Sam Brownback, Rick Santorum, Bill Frist, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Chuck Hagel, Rudolph Giuliani, or George Pataki, for whom would you vote?" N=632 Republican primary voters, MoE 4

.

%
John McCain

35

 

 

 

 

Rudolph Giuliani

19

Bill Frist

6

 

 

 

 

Newt Gingrich

5

 

 

 

 

Rick Santorum

2

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney

2

 

 

 

 

George Pataki

2

 

 

 

 

Chuck Hagel

1

 

 

 

 

Sam Brownback

1

 

 

 

 

Unsure

27

 

 

 

 

.

"Now if the Republican primary for president were held today and the candidates were John McCain, Sam Brownback, Rick Santorum, Bill Frist, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Chuck Hagel, Rudolph Giuliani, George Pataki, Jeb Bush, Dick Cheney, and Condoleezza Rice, for whom would you vote?" N=632 Republican primary voters, MoE 4

.

%
John McCain

29

 

 

 

 

Condoleezza Rice

11

 

 

 

 

Rudolph Giuliani

11

Jeb Bush

7

 

 

 

 

Dick Cheney

6

 

 

 

 

Bill Frist

4

 

 

 

 

Newt Gingrich

4

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney

2

 

 

 

 

Rick Santorum

1

 

 

 

 

George Pataki

1

 

 

 

 

Chuck Hagel

1

 

 

 

 

Sam Brownback

-

 

 

 

 

Unsure

22

 

 

 

 

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

2

 

 

 

 


 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Feb. 4-6, 2005. Nationwide.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008: Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Tennessee Senator Bill Frist, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, or Arizona Senator John McCain -- or would you support someone else?" Names rotated. N=491 Republicans and Republicans leaners who are registered to vote, MoE 5.

.

%
Rudy Giuliani

33

John McCain

30

 

 

 

 

Jeb Bush

12

 

 

 

 

Bill Frist

7

 

 

 

 

Other

6

 

 

 

 

All/Any (vol.)

1

 

 

 

 

None (vol.)

3

 

 

 

 

Unsure

8

 

 

 

 


 

Ipsos-Public Affairs poll. Dec. 17-19, 2004. Nationwide.

.

"I know it is early, but if the Republican primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Republican nomination for president? . . . " N=381 registered voters who consider themselves Republicans or lean Republican, plus independent and undeclared voters who say they generally vote in Republican primaries; MoE 4.9

.

  %    
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani 29    
Senator John McCain 25    
Senator Bill Frist 7    
Governor Jeb Bush 7    
Senator Rick Santorum 3    
Governor George Pataki 3    
Senator George Allen 2    
Governor Mitt Romney 1    
Governor Bill Owens 1    
Senator Chuck Hagel 1    
Governor Haley Barbour -    
Other (vol.) 2    
Don't vote in primaries (vol.) 2    
Unsure 17    

 

Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (R). Nov. 14-16, 2004. Nationwide.

.

"If the Republican primary for president were held today and the candidates were John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, for whom would you vote?" Names rotated. N=389 Republican presidential primary voters, MoE 5.

.

%
Rudy Giuliani

42

John McCain

24

 

 

 

 

Unsure

34

 

 

 

 


 

Gallup Poll. Nov. 7-10, 2004. Nationwide.

.

"Looking ahead to four years from now when George Bush will have finished his two terms in office, who do you want to be the Republican Party presidential nominee in 2008, if you had to choose today?" Open-ended. N=505 Republicans and Republicans leaners, MoE 5.

.

%
John McCain

10

 

 

 

 

Rudy Giuliani

10

Colin Powell

7

 

 

 

 

Jeb Bush

3

 

 

 

 

Condoleezza Rice

2

 

 

 

 

Bill Frist

2

 

 

 

 

Arnold Schwarzenegger

2

 

 

 

 

None

3

 

 

 

 

Other

12

 

 

 

 

Unsure

49

 

 

 

 

.

"Suppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to Florida Governor Jeb Bush, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Arizona Senator John McCain. Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president: Jeb Bush or Rudy Giuliani or John McCain?" Names rotated. N=505 Republicans and Republicans leaners, MoE 5.

.

%
Rudy Giuliani

47

John McCain

27

 

 

 

 

Jeb Bush

17

 

 

 

 

Unsure

9

 

 

 

 


 

McLaughlin & Associates (R). Conducted the evening of Election Day, Nov. 2, 2004. N=1,000 Nov. 2004 general election voters nationwide.

.

"Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 Republican primary for president were held today and the candidates were John McCain, Bill Frist, Rudy Giuliani, George Pataki, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Bill Owens, for whom would you vote?"

.

Reps. +
Inds.
Repub-
licans
Indepen-
dents
% % %
Rudy Giuliani

30

34

17

.

.

John McCain

18

15

26

.

.

Jeb Bush

5

7

0

.

.

Bill Frist

2

2

2

.

.

George Pataki

2

2

3

.

.

Mitt Romney

1

1

2

.

.

Bill Owens

1

1

2

.

.

Unsure

40

37

49

.

.


 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Sept. 2-3, 2004. N=1,008 registered voters nationwide (MoE 4), including 374 Republicans (MoE 6).

.

"Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, please tell me which, if any, of the following Republicans you would like to see run for president in 2008. What about [see below]? Would you like him to run in 2008, or not?"

.

Would Would Not Unsure  
% % %  
Rudy Giuliani
  ALL voters 50 37 13  
  Republicans 65 24 11  

.

John McCain
  ALL voters 48 36 16  
  Republicans 47 39 14  

.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, if the Constitution were changed to allow foreign-born U.S. citizens to run
  ALL voters 22 66 12  
  Republicans 30 57 13  

.

Florida Governor Jeb Bush
  ALL voters 15 66 19  
  Republicans 28 49 23  

.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist
  ALL voters 11 55 34  
  Republicans 19 47 34  

.

New York Governor George Pataki
  ALL voters 15 55 30  
  Republicans 13 52 35  

 


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