|
|
|
White House 2012: General Election
(p. 5)
|
|
|
Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by
the Society for Human Resource Management. Oct. 21-24, 2010. N=1,006
adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 4. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Would you like to see Barack Obama run for president in 2012,
or not?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Yes |
No |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
10/21-24/10 |
47 |
42 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
Bloomberg National Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. Oct. 7-10, 2010. N=721
likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.7. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If the 2012 election for U.S. president were held today and the
candidates were Sarah Palin for the Republicans and Barack Obama for the
Democrats, for whom would you vote: Sarah Palin or Barack Obama, or would you
likely not vote?"
Candidate options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Sarah
Palin (R) |
Would likely
not vote |
Unsure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
10/7-10/10 |
51 |
35 |
10 |
4 |
|
|
|
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 28-29, 2010. N=900 registered
voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"How would you vote if the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama
and a candidate from the Tea Party movement?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Tea Party
candidate |
Other (vol.) |
Wouldn't
vote (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
9/28-29/10 |
43 |
32 |
7 |
3 |
15 |
|
1/12-13/10 |
48 |
23 |
5 |
5 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If the 2012 presidential election were held today, how would
you vote if the choices were Barack Obama,
the Democrat, Sarah Palin, the Republican, and Mike Bloomberg, an independent?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Sarah
Palin (R) |
Mike
Bloomberg (I) |
Other (vol.) |
Wouldn't
vote
(vol.)/Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
9/28-29/10 |
40 |
28 |
18 |
3 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If the 2012 presidential election were held today, how would
you vote if the choices were Barack Obama,
the Democrat, Sarah Palin, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, as an
independent candidate?""
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Sarah
Palin (R) |
Hillary
Clinton (I) |
Other (vol.) |
Wouldn't
vote
(vol.)/Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
9/28-29/10 |
30 |
29 |
27 |
4 |
10 |
|
|
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Aug. 6-10, 2010. N=935
registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Suppose the 2012 presidential election were being held today.
If Barack Obama runs for reelection, are you more likely to vote for Obama, the
Democrat, or for the Republican Party's candidate for president?" If unsure:
"As of today, do you lean more to Obama, the Democrat, or to a Republican
candidate?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Obama |
Republican |
Other (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
8/6-10/10 |
45 |
50 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
3/25-28/10 |
47 |
48 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
3/19-21/10 |
47 |
47 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
Time Poll conducted by Abt SRBI. July 12-13, 2010. N=1,003 adults
nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"There will be an election for president in 2012. If the
presidential election were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the
Democrat, and Sarah Palin, the Republican, and you had to choose, for whom would
you vote?"
Options rotated.
Among registered voters. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Sarah
Palin (R) |
Other/
Neither (vol.) |
Would not
vote (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
7/12-13/10 |
55 |
34 |
7 |
1 |
4 |
|
|
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. May 4-5, 2010. N=900 registered
voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Thinking ahead to the next presidential election: If the 2012
presidential election were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the
Democratic candidate, or for the Republican Party's candidate?"
If unsure:
"Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Obama |
Republican |
Other (vol.) |
Wouldn't
vote (vol.)/
Unsure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
5/4-5/10 |
41 |
41 |
6 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If the 2012 presidential election were held today, how would
you vote if the choices were Barack Obama, the Democrat, the Republican
candidate, and Mike Bloomberg, an independent?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Obama |
Republican |
Bloomberg |
Other (vol.) |
Wouldn't
vote (vol.)/
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
5/4-5/10 |
42 |
29 |
10 |
3 |
16 |
|
|
Clarus Research Group. March 17-20, 2010. N=1,050 registered voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If the next presidential election were held today, and the two
candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican [see below], for
whom would you vote?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Mitt
Romney (R) |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
3/17-20/10 |
45 |
41 |
14 |
|
|
|
8/14-18/09 |
47 |
38 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Mike
Huckabee (R) |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
3/17-20/10 |
47 |
39 |
14 |
|
|
|
8/14-18/09 |
48 |
38 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Sarah
Palin (R) |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
3/17-20/10 |
52 |
34 |
14 |
|
|
|
8/14-18/09 |
53 |
34 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Newt
Gingrich (R) |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
3/17-20/10 |
48 |
36 |
16 |
|
|
|
8/14-18/09 |
52 |
34 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Jeb
Bush (R) |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
3/17-20/10 |
49 |
37 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Feb. 12-15, 2010. N=954
registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Do you think Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or not?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Deserves
reelection |
Does not
deserve
reelection |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
2/12-15/10 |
44 |
52 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 12-13, 2010. N=900 registered
voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"What if the candidates were [see below]?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Newt
Gingrich (R) |
Other (vol.) |
Wouldn't
vote (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
1/12-13/10 |
53 |
29 |
5 |
4 |
9 |
|
|
Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
(D). Nov. 12-16, 2009. N=847 likely voters nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
"I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential
election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the
candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, Green Party
Candidate Ralph Nader and America First Party Candidate Lou Dobbs, for whom
would you vote?"
Results include leaners |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Barack
Obama (D) |
Mitt
Romney (R) |
Lou Dobbs
(AFP) |
Ralph Nader
(Green) |
Other (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
11/12-16/09 |
45 |
38 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
|
|
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Nov. 13-15, 2009. N=1,014
adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Please tell me whether you think each of the following is or is
not qualified to be president. . . ." |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Is qualified |
Is
not
qualified |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton |
|
11/13-15/09 |
67 |
32 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Vice
President Joe Biden |
|
11/13-15/09 |
50 |
48 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney |
|
11/13-15/09 |
47 |
42 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee |
|
11/13-15/09 |
43 |
47 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
Alaska governor Sarah Palin |
|
11/13-15/09 |
28 |
70 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009. N=1,021 adults
nationwide. MoE ± 4.
Per Gallup: "These questions were asked of random half-samples for two
nights of Gallup Daily polling, which interviews 1,000 U.S. adults each
night." |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Next, I'm going to read you a list of possible Republican
candidates in the 2012 presidential election. Please tell me whether you would,
or would not, seriously consider supporting each for president. How about . . .
?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Would |
Would not |
Unsure |
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee |
|
ALL |
40 |
51 |
10 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
71 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
40 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
18 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney |
|
ALL |
39 |
51 |
11 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
65 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
40 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
20 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
Alaska governor Sarah Palin |
|
ALL |
33 |
63 |
5 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
65 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
32 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
10 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
House speaker Newt Gingrich |
|
ALL |
29 |
63 |
9 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
60 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
28 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
8 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Minnesota
Governor Tim Pawlenty |
|
ALL |
18 |
60 |
22 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
32 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
17 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
11 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Mississippi
Governor Haley Barbour |
|
ALL |
15 |
65 |
21 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
26 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
15 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
7 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Please tell me whether you think each of the following people
is or is not qualified to be president. How about . . . ?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Is |
Is
not |
Unsure |
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee |
|
ALL |
50 |
36 |
14 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
72 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
48 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
38 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney |
|
ALL |
49 |
39 |
12 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
71 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
45 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
37 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
House speaker Newt Gingrich |
|
ALL |
44 |
46 |
10 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
68 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
39 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
32 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Former
Alaska governor Sarah Palin |
|
ALL |
31 |
62 |
7 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
58 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
28 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
14 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Minnesota
Governor Tim Pawlenty |
|
ALL |
25 |
51 |
25 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
33 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
23 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
21 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Mississippi
Governor Haley Barbour |
|
ALL |
18 |
57 |
26 |
. |
|
|
Republicans |
27 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Independents |
15 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
Democrats |
12 |
. |
. |
. |
|
|
|
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling
organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). July 24-27, 2009.
N=1,011 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Would you like to see Sarah Palin as president some day, or
not?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Would |
Would not |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
7/24-27/09 |
21 |
67 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Would you like to see Mitt Romney as president some day, or
not?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Would |
Would not |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
7/24-27/09 |
24 |
50 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by FD. July 9-13, 2009. N=800
registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Looking ahead to 2012, if the presidential election were held
today, would you vote to reelect Barack Obama or would you like to see someone
else become president?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Obama |
Someone
else |
Too early
(vol.) |
Unsure/
Refused |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
7/9-13/09 |
42 |
39 |
13 |
6 |
|
|
6/4-7/09 |
46 |
30 |
18 |
5 |
|
|
4/23-26/09 |
45 |
32 |
18 |
4 |
|
|
|
Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll. April 19-21, 2009. N=800 likely
voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Now, based on President Obama's performance to date and looking
ahead to the 2012 presidential election: Do you think you will vote to reelect
Barack Obama, consider voting for someone else, or will you vote to replace
Barack Obama?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Reelect
Obama |
Consider
someone else |
Replace
Obama |
Unsure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
4/19-21/09 |
42 |
22 |
24 |
11 |
|
|
|
Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. April 8-11, 2009. N=833
registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"And if the election for president were held today, would you
definitely vote to reelect Barack Obama, probably vote to reelect Barack Obama,
probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for
someone else for president?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Definitely
Obama |
Probably
Obama |
Probably
someone else |
Definitely
someone else |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALL |
32 |
18 |
13 |
26 |
11 |
|
Republicans |
5 |
8 |
24 |
53 |
8 |
|
Independents |
24 |
22 |
13 |
24 |
17 |
|
Democrats |
61 |
24 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2008. N=950
registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If Barack Obama is NOT elected president in November, would you
strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose Hillary
Clinton if she ran for president four years from now?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Strongly
support |
Somewhat
support |
Somewhat
oppose |
Strongly
oppose |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALL |
37 |
23 |
13 |
27 |
1 |
|
Democrats |
63 |
27 |
3 |
6 |
1 |
|
Independents |
29 |
29 |
16 |
25 |
2 |
|
Republicans |
12 |
12 |
21 |
55 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If John McCain is NOT elected president in November, would you
strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose Sarah
Palin if she ran for president four years from now?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Strongly
support |
Somewhat
support |
Somewhat
oppose |
Strongly
oppose |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALL |
22 |
18 |
13 |
46 |
1 |
|
Democrats |
3 |
7 |
10 |
78 |
1 |
|
Independents |
20 |
21 |
16 |
42 |
1 |
|
Republicans |
46 |
31 |
13 |
9 |
1 |
|
|
