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    White House 2012: General Election  (p. 5)


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.

Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by the Society for Human Resource Management. Oct. 21-24, 2010. N=1,006 adults nationwide. Margin of error 4.

.

"Would you like to see Barack Obama run for president in 2012, or not?"

.

Yes No Unsure
% % %

10/21-24/10

47 42 11

 

Bloomberg National Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. Oct. 7-10, 2010. N=721 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error 3.7.

.

"If the 2012 election for U.S. president were held today and the candidates were Sarah Palin for the Republicans and Barack Obama for the Democrats, for whom would you vote: Sarah Palin or Barack Obama, or would you likely not vote?" Candidate options rotated

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Sarah
Palin (R)
Would likely
not vote
Unsure
% % % %

10/7-10/10

51 35 10 4

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 28-29, 2010. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"How would you vote if the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and a candidate from the Tea Party movement?" Options rotated

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Tea Party
candidate
Other (vol.) Wouldn't
vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

9/28-29/10

43 32 7 3 15

1/12-13/10

48 23 5 5 18

.

"If the 2012 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the choices were Barack Obama,
the Democrat, Sarah Palin, the Republican, and Mike Bloomberg, an independent?"
Options rotated

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Sarah
Palin (R)
Mike
Bloomberg (I)
Other (vol.) Wouldn't vote
(vol.)/Unsure
% % % % %

9/28-29/10

40 28 18 3 12

.

"If the 2012 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the choices were Barack Obama,
the Democrat, Sarah Palin, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, as an independent candidate?""
Options rotated

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Sarah
Palin (R)
Hillary
Clinton (I)
Other (vol.) Wouldn't vote
(vol.)/Unsure
% % % % %

9/28-29/10

30 29 27 4 10

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Aug. 6-10, 2010. N=935 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error 3.

.

"Suppose the 2012 presidential election were being held today. If Barack Obama runs for reelection, are you more likely to vote for Obama, the Democrat, or for the Republican Party's candidate for president?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more to Obama, the Democrat, or to a Republican candidate?"

.

Obama Republican Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % %

8/6-10/10

45 50 3 1

3/25-28/10

47 48 4 1

3/19-21/10

47 47 4 2

 

Time Poll conducted by Abt SRBI. July 12-13, 2010. N=1,003 adults nationwide.

.

"There will be an election for president in 2012. If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Sarah Palin, the Republican, and you had to choose, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated. Among registered voters.

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Sarah
Palin (R)
Other/
Neither (vol.)
Would not
vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

7/12-13/10

55 34 7 1 4

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. May 4-5, 2010. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"Thinking ahead to the next presidential election: If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican Party's candidate?" If unsure: "Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?"

.

Obama Republican Other (vol.) Wouldn't
vote (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % %

5/4-5/10

41 41 6 12

.

"If the 2012 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the choices were Barack Obama, the Democrat, the Republican candidate, and Mike Bloomberg, an independent?" Options rotated

.

Obama Republican Bloomberg Other (vol.) Wouldn't
vote (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % %

5/4-5/10

42 29 10 3 16

 

Clarus Research Group. March 17-20, 2010. N=1,050 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the next presidential election were held today, and the two candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican [see below], for whom would you vote?"

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Mitt
Romney (R)
Unsure
% % %

3/17-20/10

45 41 14

8/14-18/09

47 38 15

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Mike
Huckabee (R)
Unsure
% % %

3/17-20/10

47 39 14

8/14-18/09

48 38 15

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Sarah
Palin (R)
Unsure
% % %

3/17-20/10

52 34 14

8/14-18/09

53 34 13

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Newt
Gingrich (R)
Unsure
% % %

3/17-20/10

48 36 16

8/14-18/09

52 34 15

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Jeb
Bush (R)
Unsure
% % %

3/17-20/10

49 37 15

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Feb. 12-15, 2010. N=954 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"Do you think Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or not?"

.

Deserves
reelection
Does not
deserve
reelection
Unsure
% % %

2/12-15/10

44 52 4

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 12-13, 2010. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"What if the candidates were [see below]?" Options rotated

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Newt
Gingrich (R)
Other (vol.) Wouldn't
vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

1/12-13/10

53 29 5 4 9

 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Nov. 12-16, 2009. N=847 likely voters nationwide.

.

 

"I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader and America First Party Candidate Lou Dobbs, for whom would you vote?" Results include leaners

.

Barack
Obama (D)
Mitt
Romney (R)
Lou Dobbs
(AFP)
Ralph Nader
(Green)
Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % % %

11/12-16/09

45 38 6 4 2 5

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Nov. 13-15, 2009. N=1,014 adults nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"Please tell me whether you think each of the following is or is not qualified to be president. . . ."

.

Is qualified Is not qualified Unsure
% % %

.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

11/13-15/09

67 32 1

.

Vice President Joe Biden

11/13-15/09

50 48 3

.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney

11/13-15/09

47 42 11

.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee

11/13-15/09

43 47 10

.

Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin

11/13-15/09

28 70 2

 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009. N=1,021 adults nationwide. MoE 4. Per Gallup: "These questions were asked of random half-samples for two nights of Gallup Daily polling, which interviews 1,000 U.S. adults each night."

.

"Next, I'm going to read you a list of possible Republican candidates in the 2012 presidential election. Please tell me whether you would, or would not, seriously consider supporting each for president. How about . . . ?"

.

Would Would not Unsure

.

% % %

.

.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee

ALL

40 51 10

.

Republicans

71

.

.

.

Independents

40

.

.

.

Democrats

18

.

.

.

.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney

ALL

39 51 11

.

Republicans

65

.

.

.

Independents

40

.

.

.

Democrats

20

.

.

.

.

Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin

ALL

33 63 5

.

Republicans

65

.

.

.

Independents

32

.

.

.

Democrats

10

.

.

.

.

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich

ALL

29 63 9

.

Republicans

60

.

.

.

Independents

28

.

.

.

Democrats

8

.

.

.

.

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty

ALL

18 60 22

.

Republicans

32

.

.

.

Independents

17

.

.

.

Democrats

11

.

.

.

.

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour

ALL

15 65 21

.

Republicans

26

.

.

.

Independents

15

.

.

.

Democrats

7

.

.

.

.

"Please tell me whether you think each of the following people is or is not qualified to be president. How about . . . ?"

.

Is Is not Unsure

.

% % %

.

.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee

ALL

50 36 14

.

Republicans

72

.

.

.

Independents

48

.

.

.

Democrats

38

.

.

.

.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney

ALL

49 39 12

.

Republicans

71

.

.

.

Independents

45

.

.

.

Democrats

37

.

.

.

.

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich

ALL

44 46 10

.

Republicans

68

.

.

.

Independents

39

.

.

.

Democrats

32

.

.

.

.

Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin

ALL

31 62 7

.

Republicans

58

.

.

.

Independents

28

.

.

.

Democrats

14

.

.

.

.

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty

ALL

25 51 25

.

Republicans

33

.

.

.

Independents

23

.

.

.

Democrats

21

.

.

.

.

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour

ALL

18 57 26

.

Republicans

27

.

.

.

Independents

15

.

.

.

Democrats

12

.

.

.


 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). July 24-27, 2009. N=1,011 adults nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"Would you like to see Sarah Palin as president some day, or not?"

.

Would Would not Unsure
% % %

7/24-27/09

21 67 12

.

"Would you like to see Mitt Romney as president some day, or not?"

.

Would Would not Unsure
% % %

7/24-27/09

24 50 26

 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by FD. July 9-13, 2009. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"Looking ahead to 2012, if the presidential election were held today, would you vote to reelect Barack Obama or would you like to see someone else become president?"

.

Obama Someone
else
Too early
(vol.)
Unsure/
Refused
% % % %

7/9-13/09

42 39 13 6

6/4-7/09

46 30 18 5

4/23-26/09

45 32 18 4

 

Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll. April 19-21, 2009. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"Now, based on President Obama's performance to date and looking ahead to the 2012 presidential election: Do you think you will vote to reelect Barack Obama, consider voting for someone else, or will you vote to replace Barack Obama?"

.

Reelect
Obama
Consider
someone else
Replace
Obama
Unsure
% % % %

4/19-21/09

42 22 24 11

 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. April 8-11, 2009. N=833 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"And if the election for president were held today, would you definitely vote to reelect Barack Obama, probably vote to reelect Barack Obama, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else for president?" Options rotated

.

Definitely
Obama
Probably
Obama
Probably
someone else
Definitely
someone else
Unsure
% % % % %

ALL

32 18 13 26 11

Republicans

5 8 24 53 8

Independents

24 22 13 24 17

Democrats

61 24 4 6 5

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2008. N=950 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If Barack Obama is NOT elected president in November, would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose Hillary Clinton if she ran for president four years from now?"

.

Strongly
support
Somewhat
support
Somewhat
oppose
Strongly
oppose
Unsure
% % % % %

ALL

37 23 13 27 1

Democrats

63 27 3 6 1

Independents

29 29 16 25 2

Republicans

12 12 21 55 1

.

"If John McCain is NOT elected president in November, would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose Sarah Palin if she ran for president four years from now?"

.

Strongly
support
Somewhat
support
Somewhat
oppose
Strongly
oppose
Unsure
% % % % %

ALL

22 18 13 46 1

Democrats

3 7 10 78 1

Independents

20 21 16 42 1

Republicans

46 31 13 9 1

 


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