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     Election 2004: Congress


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George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Snell Perry & Associates (D). Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. (Rolling sample, as of 9/13/04.) MoE 3.1.

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". . . If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?" Options rotated

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Republican Democrat Unsure
% % %
10/31 - 11/1/04 47 44 9
10/27-28 & 31/04 46 43 11
10/25-28/04 44 44 12
10/18-21/04 42 46 12
10/11-14/04 40 44 16
10/4-7/04 42 43 15
9/27-30/04 42 46 12
9/20-23/04 43 44 13
9/13-16/04 41 45 14

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8/15-17/04 43 46 11
6/20-23/04 41 49 11
3/28-31/04 39 46 14
9/03 42 43 15

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,866 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 1,573 likely voters (MoE 3).

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"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" Options rotated. In 10/29-31/04 poll, respondents who had already voted were asked which party's candidate they voted for.

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Republican Democrat Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %

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Among likely voters:

10/29-31/04

47 48 5

10/22-24/04

50 47 3

9/3-5/04

48 46 6

7/30 - 8/1/04

47 47 6
1/04 50 45 5

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Among registered voters:

10/29-31/04

45 49 6

10/22-24/04

47 49 4

9/3-5/04

44 48 8

7/30 - 8/1/04

44 49 7
1/04 46 45 9
11/03 47 46 7

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,014 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

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"What is your preference for the outcome of the upcoming congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"

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Republicans Democrats Unsure    
% % %    

Among likely voters:

10/29-31/04 43 44 13    
10/16-18/04 44 44 12    

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Trend, among registered voters:

9/17-19/04 42 46 12    
9/17-19/04 42 46 12    
6/25-28/04 42 44 14    
5/1-3/04 41 44 15    
3/6-8/04 42 45 13    

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Among ALL adults:

1/04 42 43 15    
12/03 42 42 16    

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=1,005 registered voters nationwide (MoE 4); 882 likely voters (MoE 4).

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"If the election for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward the Republican or the Democrat?" Options rotated

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Republican Democrat Other (vol.)/
Undecided

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% % %

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Among likely voters:
10/27-29/04 49 44 7

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10/21-22/04 47 46 7

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10/14-15/04 46 44 10

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Among registered voters:
10/27-29/04 46 45 9

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10/21-22/04 45 45 10

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10/14-15/04 43 46 11

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7/29-30/04 41 51 8

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3/18-19/04 42 49 9

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Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Oct. 26-28, 2004. N=1,503 likely voters nationwide. MoE 2.5.

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"Again, thinking about the elections in November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?"

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Republican Democrat Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
10/26-28/04 45 48 1 5
10/26-27/04 45 47 2 6
10/24-25/04 42 51 1 6
10/20-21/04 44 49 1 6
10/17-18/04 46 48 1 5
10/14-16/04 45 49 1 5
10/10-11/04 45 48 1 6
10/3-5/04 45 49 1 6
10/3-5/04 45 49 1 6
9/26-28/04 46 47 2 5
9/19-21/04 45 48 1 6
9/12-14/04 44 48 1 7
9/6-9/04 45 46 2 7
8/2-5/04 41 51 2 6
7/10-13/04 42 49 1 8
6/14-17/04 44 48 1 8
5/10-13/04 44 46 1 9
4/19-22/04 45 47 0 8
3/16-21/04 45 47 1 7
2/10-15/04 42 49 0 8
1/13-18/04 43 48 1 9
10/03 42 48 1 9
9/03 42 47 1 11
8/03 39 45 1 15
7/03 45 44 2 10
6/03 44 43 1 11
5/03 45 43 1 11
1/03 43 44 1 11

 

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=1,330 registered voters nationwide. MoE 2.5.

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"And if the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?"

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Republicans Democrats Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
Among likely voters:
10/18-20/04 46 47 4 3
10/4-6/04 44 48 5 3
9/20-22/04 49 46 3 2
9/7-9/04 49 46 3 2

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Trend, among registered voters:

9/7-9/04 47 45 5 3
8/3-5/04 44 48 6 2
7/5-7/04 43 47 6 4
6/7-9/04 42 47 7 4
5/3-5/04 41 50 6 3
4/5-7/04 43 46 8 3
3/1-3/04 43 44 8 5
2/2-4/04 41 44 11 4
1/5-7/04 44 42 9 5
12/1-3/03 42 44 10 4
10/21-23/03 44 44 8 4
10/7-9/03 43 46 7 4
8/19-21/03 40 45 9 6
6/17-19/03 40 47 10 3
6/3-5/03 42 42 10 6
5/20-22/03 45 43 8 4
5/6-8/03 41 45 9 5
4/15-17/03 47 39 10 4
4/1-3/03 47 41 8 4
3/18-20/03 44 41 11 4
3/4-6/03 39 43 12 6

 

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Oct. 14-17, 2004. N=931 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 678 likely voters (MoE 4). Per CBS: "Every registered voter is included in the likely voter model, and is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters."

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"If the 2004 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?"

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Republican Democrat Depends
(vol.)
Don't
Know
 
% % % %  

Among likely voters:

10/14-17/04 39 45 7 9  

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Trend, among registered voters:

9/12-16/04 39 41 8 12  
7/11-15/04 37 46 8 9  
3/10-14/04 38 42 8 12  

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"Do you think your representative in Congress from your district has performed his or her job well enough to deserve reelection, or do you think it's time to give a new person a chance?"

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Deserves
Reelection
New
Person
Depends
(vol.)
Don't
Know
 
% % % %  

Among registered voters:

10/14-17/04 51 27 3 19  

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 14-16, 2004. N=942 registered voters nationwide (MoE 4); 788 likely voters (MoE 4).

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"Please tell me whether you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be reelected, or not. How about [see below]?"

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Yes,
Deserves
No,
Does Not
No
Opinion
% % %

"The U.S. representative in your congressional district"

Among likely voters:

10/14-16/04

69 19 12

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Among registered voters:

10/14-16/04

63 21 16
10/03 65 24 11

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"Most members of the U.S. House of Representatives"

Among likely voters:

10/14-16/04

53 32 15

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Among registered voters:

10/14-16/04

51 34 15
10/03 50 37 13

 

The Los Angeles Times Poll. June 5-8, 2004. N=1,230 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3 (total sample).

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"If the November 2004 general election for Congress were being held today, which party would you like to see win in your congressional district: the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?" Includes leaners

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Repub-
lican
Demo-
crat
Indepen-
dent
Neither
(vol.)

Unsure

% % % % %
ALL 35 54 1 3 7
  Men 38 51 1 5 5
  Women 33 55 1 1 10

 

Time Poll conducted by Ken Dautrich and Chris Barnes. June 2-4, 2004. N=1,280 adults nationwide. MoE 2.7.

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"If the election for Congress were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress in your district?"

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Repub-
lican
Demo-
crat
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
 
% % % %  
6/2-4/04 37 49 4 11  

 

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. May 12-13, 2004. N=563 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4.1.

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"If the election for Congress were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district, or for the Republican candidate?" Options rotated

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Repub-
lican
Demo-
crat
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %

5/12-13/04

40 53 2 5

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. March 26-28, 2004. N=1,001 adults nationwide. MoE 3.

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"Do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress, or if the Democrats controlled Congress?"

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Repub-
licans
Demo-
crats
Neither
(vol.)
Same
(vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %

3/26-28/04

39 41 7 4 9
7/29-31/02 38 39 9 5 9
7/5-8/02 40 39 11 3 7

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. March 5-7, 2004. N=1,005 adults nationwide. MoE 3.

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"Do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress, if the Democrats controlled Congress, or would the country be the same regardless of which party controlled Congress?"

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Repub-
licans
Demo-
crats
Same
Regard-
less
No
Opinion
 
% % % %  
3/5-7/04 25 31 39 5  
11/8-10/02 28 22 47 3  
10/31 - 11/3/02 25 27 42 6  
10/23-25/98 24 22 48 6  

 

Zogby America Poll. Jan. 15-18, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.2.

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"In the congressional race in 2004, for which party's candidate do you intend to vote: Democrat or Republican?"
Repub-
lican
Demo-
crat
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
1/04 30 39 3 28
3/03 36 39 4 21

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 23-24, 2003. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

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"Thinking ahead to this November's elections [sic], if the congressional election were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?"

Repub-
lican
Demo-
crat
Other (vol.)/
Not Sure
% % %
9/03 36 41 23

 

Penn Schoen & Berland Associates for the New Democrat Network. June 8-15, 2003. N=1,001 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

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"If the election for Congress were held today and the candidates were a Democratic or Republican candidate, for whom would you vote?"

Repub-
lican
Demo-
crat
Not
Sure
% % %
6/03 39 41 20

 

McLaughlin & Associates (R). May 20-22, 2003. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide.

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Generic Ballot Test:

Repub-
lican
Demo-
crat
Not
Sure
% % %
5/03 40 39 21
2/03 37 35 29

 

Public Opinion Strategies (R). March 19-20 & 22, 2003. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

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"And thinking ahead to the next U.S. congressional election in your district in 2004: If the election were held today, for whom would you vote: [rotate] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? [If Republican/Democrat:] And would you say you would DEFINITELY be voting for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY voting for the Republican/Democrat candidate? [If undecided:] Which way do you lean as of today? Do you lean toward the Democratic or Republican candidate?"

Repub-
lican
Demo-
crat
Not
Sure
% % %
3/19-20 & 22/03 42 38 20
3/12-13/03 40 44 16
2/03 40 42 18
1/03 42 41 17

 


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