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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research 2/8
Campaign Finance Reform: Good Policy, Good Politics
Ratings for everyone in Washington are low and voters are deeply pessimistic about the direction the country is heading. Driving those sentiments is the belief that special interests are still running the show and that voters' voices are being drowned out by those who help fund politicians' campaigns. . . .

Des Moines Register 2/7
33% of Iowans support 'tea party' movement
A third of Iowans from across the political spectrum say they support the "tea party" movement, sounding a loud chorus of dissatisfaction with government, according to The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll. . . .

Tyler Cowen 2/7
Why Politics Is Stuck in the Middle
Economists approach political competition with a simple but potent hypothesis called the "median voter theorem." ... Any politician who strays too far from voters at the philosophical center will soon be out of office. . . .

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Washington Post 2/7
Majorities in D.C. back gay marriage, medical marijuana
District residents are generally supportive of the progressive, activist social agenda being pursued by the D.C. Council, putting their stamp of approval on efforts by government leaders to enact policies while Democrats control Congress. . . .

Harvard 2/5
Nearly Half of Americans Believe H1N1 Outbreak is Over
The latest poll from researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health shows that almost half of Americans believe the H1N1 flu outbreak is over (44%), and levels of concern about getting sick with the virus continue to decline. . . .

Gallup 2/5
Democrats Turn More Negative Toward Congress
Congress' job approval rating from Americans fell six points in the past month, from 24% to 18% -- the lowest reading in more than a year. Nearly 8 in 10 (78%) now disapprove. . . .

Gallup 2/5
Obama Approval: Hawaii Warmest to Obama
Of the 50 states, Hawaii gave its native son, President Barack Obama, the highest approval ratings in 2009, with an average of nearly 71% approving of his overall job performance from January through December. . . .

Jonathan Haidt, UVA 2/4
What Is Wrong With Those Tea Partiers?
The truth has triumphed, at least for those attending this week's Tea Party convention in Nashville: Obama is a socialist fascist communist statist Muslim whose healthcare "reform" would destroy the world's greatest healthcare system and force Americans to wait in long lines so that their medical requests could be reviewed by death panels. . . .

Pew Research Center 2/3
Social Media and Young Adults
Since 2006, blogging has dropped among teens and young adults while simultaneously rising among older adults. As the tools and technology embedded in social networking sites change, and use of the sites continues to grow, youth may be exchanging 'macro-blogging' for microblogging with status updates. . . .

Gallup 2/3
Asian-Americans Lean Left Politically
Gallup Daily tracking data reveal that Asian-Americans tend to be more Democratic and much less conservative than the general population in their political views. . . .

Gallup 2/3
Three Deep South States Are the Most Conservative
Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana are the most conservative states, with just under half of the residents in each identifying as politically conservative. Massachusetts and Vermont -- along with the District of Columbia -- have the greatest percentage of self-identified liberals. . . .

Mark Mellman 2/3
Robo-polls and human error
Political pollsters' conceit is that, unlike traditional market researchers, Election Day provides a report card on the quality of our work that reveals unequivocally whether we are right or wrong, accurate or inaccurate. By that standard, IVR, or robo-polls, that use recorded voices, not live interviewers, and ask respondents to push buttons on the phone keypad to record responses, have a pretty good record. . . .

Democracy Corps 2/2
The Economy Growing at Two Different Speeds
Voter reaction to the president's economic discussion in the State of the Union shows that Democrats have a lot to learn about their economic narrative in the coming year. . . .

Daily Kos 2/2
Poll of Self-Identified Republicans
... Ultimately, these results explain why it is impossible for elected Republicans to work with Democrats to improve our country. . . .

Washington Post 2/2
Liberals find backing in poll numbers
Progressive groups, worried that Democrats are too cautious, are speaking the language that lawmakers may hear clearest: poll numbers. . . .

Sam Stein 2/1
Luntz Pens Memo To Kill Financial Regulatory Reform
Nine months after he penned a memo laying out the arguments for health care legislation's destruction, Republican message guru Frank Luntz has put together a playbook to help derail financial regulatory reform. . . .

Gallup 2/1
Obama Approval Hits 50%
President Barack Obama's job approval rating is 50% in the most recent three-day Gallup Daily tracking, from Jan. 29-31. This follows 11 straight days of Gallup reporting in which Obama's approval rating was below the 50% mark. . . .

Gallup 2/1
Despite GOP Gains, Most States Remain Blue
Rhode Island and Massachusetts -- along with the District of Columbia -- were the most Democratic U.S. states in 2009, based on their residents' stated political affiliations. Wyoming and Utah ranked as the two most Republican states in the nation. . . .

George Skelton 2/1
California's independent streak
... California may be a Democratic state, but it's not true blue. And the best barometer of how it will vote in any general election is the fast-growing faction of independents. . . .

Vanity Fair 2/1
The 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair Poll
... Given a choice of changes to the Constitution, nearly half of us say, Leave it alone. And after abolishing the Electoral College (the most popular change), the two major parties-- reliably --split: Democrats next choose "Limit the right to bear arms," and Republicans opt for "Lessen separation of church and state." ...

Washington Post 1/31
D.C. Mayor Fenty's approval ratings plummet
Mayor Adrian M. Fenty's approval rating has plummeted over the past two years, with support eroding in all parts of the city and across demographic groups, particularly among African Americans, according to a new Washington Post poll. . . .

Anthony Salvanto & Mark Gersh 1/29
Senate Outlook: GOP, Dems Eye Races Coast to Coast
... Senate Democrats come into this year buffeted by the Massachusetts turnover, after being on quite a roll over the last two cycles. ... At this point we see at least eight states that look like they'll host some of the hottest contests -- five of these eight are Democratic-held, three of them are Republican. . . .

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/29
Perspectives on Partisanship
It's been noted this week that partisanship has been running high in views of President Obama's job performance. That's true - but is it new? . . . .

Rhodes Cook 1/28
For Democrats, It's Time to Worry
For Democrats, it is officially time to worry. The party's gubernatorial losses in Virginia and New Jersey last fall could be partially explained away as the states' usual off-year swing to the "out" party. But Republican Scott Brown's come-from-behind victory last week in the special Massachusetts Senate election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat is something else – a harshly delivered slap in the face from voters in one of the most loyally Democratic states in the country. . . .

CBS News 1/28
83% of Speech Watchers Approve of SOTU Proposals
A large majority of Americans who watched President Obama's State of the Union Address generally approve of the proposals he outlined in his speech, according to a CBS News Poll conducted online by Knowledge Networks immediately after the President's address. . . .

Democracy Corps 1/28
Obama Resonates with Swing Voters
In his first State of the Union address tonight, Barack Obama demonstrated a clear understanding of the problems facing the country and outlined a path forward that swing voters want to see their members of Congress follow. . . .

Ramesh Ponnuru 1/27
State of the Union: Right-Leaning
President Obama will be delivering his State of the Union address tonight to an increasingly conservative electorate. A new poll of 1,000 likely voters, done by John McLaughlin and Associates for the National Review Institute, finds voters skeptical of big government, hostile to the health-care legislation being considered on Capitol Hill, and interested in conservative alternatives. . . .

Gallup 1/27
Americans on State of the Nation: Better, but Not Great
Americans' opinions about the state of the nation have improved in several respects since President Barack Obama took office a year ago. Still, today's ratings are on the order of less bad rather than positive. . . .

Democracy Corps 1/27
Economic Crisis and Populist Revolt at a Boiling Point
... Voters are increasingly consumed by unemployment and want their leaders to address that priority, yet leaders in Washington seem polarized and gridlocked, pushing a health care bill now defined by special deals rather than its benefits and the reforms that voters want. . . .

Kaiser Foundation: Drew Altman 1/27
The Message from Massachusetts
The Massachusetts special election has roiled the political world and profoundly affected the prospects for health reform just when it looked like passage was a lock. ... [N]ot since powerful Ways and Means Chair Wilbur Mills fell into the Tidal Basin with Fanne Foxe in 1974, halting momentum on a deal on health reform that seemed ready to happen, has something this unexpected so affected the prospects for health reform at the eleventh hour. . . .

Gallup 1/27
News Media Get Tepid Ratings as Obama 'Watchdog'
Most Americans appear unimpressed by the media's performance as government watchdog in the first year of the Obama administration. . . .

Gallup 1/27
President's Support Usually Unaffected by SOTU
As Barack Obama prepares to give his first State of the Union address as president, a review of Gallup historical data suggests these speeches rarely affect a president's public standing in a meaningful way. . . .

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/27
In Race and Politics, Context Helps
With his first State of the Union address looming, dissections of President Obama's approval ratings are in full force – with some analyses in need of context. The often vexed question of race is a prime example. . . .

Mark Mellman 1/27
Meaning of Mass. election
It is by now axiomatic that Massachusetts voters were in revolt last week. But who, or what, were they rebelling against? Were they using their ballots to attack President Barack Obama? Not according to the data. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/26
It's All About Jobs, Except When It's Not
As the Obama administration redoubles its effort to communicate its concerns about unemployment in the face of sagging approval ratings, a look at the connection between the rise and fall of joblessness and the political fortunes of past presidents in the modern era is instructive. . . .

Independent Women's Voice (pdf) 1/26
Mass. Special Election: What Happened, What It Means
The Massachusetts Special Election last week upended "conventional wisdom" about "who can/might/should/ will win" and called into question just how "blue" politically -- Massachusetts, and the seat held by the late Ted Kennedy --really are. . . .

Gallup 1/25
Obama's Approval Most Polarized for 1st-Year President
The 65 percentage-point gap between Democrats' (88%) and Republicans' (23%) average job approval ratings for Barack Obama is easily the largest for any president in his first year in office, greatly exceeding the prior high of 52 points for Bill Clinton. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/25
Public's Priorities for 2010: Economy, Jobs, Terrorism
As Barack Obama begins his second year in office, the public's priorities for the president and Congress remain much as they were one year ago. Strengthening the nation's economy and improving the job situation continue to top the list. . . .

Gallup 1/23
Uptick in Healthy Eating
As many Americans set an eye on healthier eating in 2010, Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index data reveal mixed results on two key metrics in 2009 compared with 2008. . . .

Glen Bolger & Neil Newhouse 1/23
Republicans can win the midterm elections
After stinging defeats in the 2006 midterms and the 2008 presidential election, we Republicans were supposedly condemned to a lengthy penance in the political wilderness, searching for our souls and groping for big ideas to rival the new Democratic juggernaut. Well, that didn't take long, did it? . . .

Washington Post 1/22
Brown's Massachusetts victory fueled by frustration
Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, antipathy toward federal government activism and opposition to the Democrats' health-care proposals drove the upset election of Republican Sen.-elect Scott Brown of Massachusetts, according to a new post-election survey of Massachusetts voters. . . .

Pioneer Press 1/22
That 'census' form in your mailbox? It's from the GOP
Have you filled out your "2010 Congressional District Census" yet? It's arriving this week in mailboxes in Minnesota, New York and Washington state. At first glance, it might appear to be related to the upcoming once-a-decade count of every man, woman and child in the United States. It's not. . . .

KRC Research 1/22
American Public Response to the Earthquake in Haiti
Nearly half of American families are donating money to Haitian relief efforts and a similar proportion are sending their contributions online or via text messaging, according to a poll released today by KRC Research. . . .

Charlie Cook 1/22
An Ear-Splitting Alarm
Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown's victory in Tuesday's special election for the Senate should serve as an air-raid siren for the Democratic Party. Warnings began sounding last summer, and by now it seems impossible for Democrats to deny that something has gone terribly wrong for their party. . . .

Gallup 1/22
Public: Campaign Money Is "Free Speech"
Americans' broad views about corporate spending in elections generally accord with the Supreme Court's decision Thursday that abolished some decades-old restrictions on corporate political activity. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 1/22
A Formula For Futility
After Republican Scott Brown's stunning victory in Massachusetts' Senate race, one dreary lesson for President Obama -- and, for that matter, his successors -- is now unambiguous: Stick to school uniforms. . . .

New America Media 1/22
Ethnic Voters May Save CA Democrats
If Republicans want to build on Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts' Senate race in historically blue California this fall, they'll have to overcome the state GOP's inability to win over ethnic voters, or hope those voters stay home. That's the implication of findings from a new Field Poll of California voters released this week in collaboration with New America Media. . . .

USA Today 1/22
Regroup on health care, most say
A majority of Americans say President Obama and congressional Democrats should suspend work on the health care bill that has been on the verge of passage and consider alternatives that would draw more Republican support, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. . . .

AFL-CIO/Hart Research Associates (pdf)
Election Night Survey of MA Senate Voters
This was a working-class revolt, and it reveals the danger to Democrats of not successfully addressing workers' economic concerns. . . .

Gallup 1/21
New Normal Psychology Dominates Consumer Behavior
Consumer psychology continues to feel the aftershocks of the financial crisis, as the "new normal" still dominates self-reported spending behaviors. . . .

Washington Post 1/21
Americans' bias against Jews, Muslims linked
A poll about Americans' views on Islam concludes that the strongest predictor of prejudice against Muslims is whether a person holds similar feelings about Jews. . . .

Neil Newhouse 1/20
Massachusetts: Scott Brown’s Twelve Keys To Victory
... In addition to the #1 factor, which is Scott himself and his ability to connect with voters, following are the ten OTHER keys to Scott Brown's victory. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/20
Most View Census Positively, But Some Have Doubts
As the federal government gears up for its decennial count of the country's population, most Americans think the census is very important and say they will definitely participate. But acceptance of and enthusiasm for the census are not universal. . . .

Politico 1/20
Massachusetts exit poll: Health care mattered
Scott Brown's opposition to congressional health care legislation was the most important issue that fueled his U.S. Senate victory in Massachusetts, according to exit poll data collected following the Tuesday special election. . . .

Gallup 1/20
Approval Typically Falls 5 Pts in a President's 2nd Year
Most of the last eight elected U.S. presidents, starting with Dwight Eisenhower, saw their approval rating drop in the second year of their presidency -- on average by five percentage points. . . .

Pew 1/20
Haiti Dominates Public's Consciousness
... In the days following the earthquake that struck Haiti, 18% of Americans say they or someone in their household made a donation to help those affected by the catastrophe and 30% say they are planning to make a donation. . . .

CNN 1/20
Coakley Pollster hits back
Martha Coakley's top pollster Celinda Lake has a warning for Democrats, insisting that tonight's loss is part of an anti-incumbent fever that threatens to take down Democrats across the nation. "There's a wave here. The first shore was New Jersey and Virginia," Lake told CNN Tuesday, referring to Democratic losses in the governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia. "The second was Massachusetts, and it's coming to the island now, so we'd better do something about it." . . .

Washington Post 1/20
Democrats on wrong end of the politics of discontent
President Obama and the Democrats rode a wave of anger aimed at the presidency of George W. Bush to victories in 2006 and 2008. Now, a year to the day after Obama was sworn into office, in a dramatic reversal of fortunes, populist anger has turned sharply against the president and his party. . . .

Mark Mellman 1/20
Effect of polls on races
I'm frequently asked whether polls affect election outcomes. My typical response is, "Not really." Writing Monday, before the Massachusetts outcome is known, I just may have found a race that was dramatically affected by polling. . . .

CBS News 1/19
Obama Ends First Year with 50% Approval Rating
... Americans think Mr. Obama has had limited success in meeting his campaign themes of bringing change to Washington and getting past partisanship. A sharp partisan divide clouds many policy evaluations in this poll. . . .

Washington Post 1/19
MA Senate election could be harbinger for health care
Democrat Martha Coakley's struggle to stave off a potentially devastating defeat in Tuesday's special Senate election in Massachusetts marks a critical turning point in the year-long debate about national health-care reform. Regardless of the outcome of that race, the two parties appeared headed toward a monumental clash over health care in the coming midterm elections. . . .

Gallup 1/18
MA Leans Democratic, but Nearly Half Are Independent
As Massachusetts prepares for its high-visibility special Senate election on Jan. 19, a new Gallup analysis shows that the state has significantly more residents identifying as political independents (49%) than as Democrats (35%). . . .

Gallup 1/18
Obama Averages 57% Approval in First Year in Office
Barack Obama averaged 57% job approval during his first year in office. Compared with the first-year averages of other presidents elected to office since World War II, Obama's average ranks on the low end, tied with Ronald Reagan's, but better than Bill Clinton's historical low of 49%. . . .

Nancy L. Cohen 1/17
2010 as 1994? Relax, Democrats
... The 2010 midterms will not be a repeat of 1994. Why? Because almost everything we think we know about the 1994 election is wrong. . . .

Washington Post 1/17
Growing disappointment over Obama's performance
A year into his presidency, President Obama faces a polarized nation and souring public assessments of his efforts to change Washington, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

New York Times: Adam Nagourney 1/16
Democrats Fret That Public Is Dissatisfied
... [M]ost ominously for Democrats contemplating the midterm elections, the battle here suggests an emerging dangerous dynamic: that Mr. Obama has energized Republican activists who think he has overstepped with health care and the economic stimulus, while demoralizing Democrats who think he has not lived up to his promise. . . .

Charles M. Blow 1/16
Lady BlahBlah
... According to an analysis of New York Times and CBS News polls, Obama has the lowest approval rating among whites at the end of his first year in office than any president in the 30 years that The Times and CBS News have collected such data. And the gap between Obama and the others is significant, ranging from 10 to 36 percentage points. . . .

Bill Schneider 1/15
A Populist Eruption In Massachusetts?
Imagine this OMG moment for Democrats: a Massachusetts Republican wins Edward Kennedy's Senate seat. What an upset that would be. It's JFK's old seat, for goodness sake. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 1/15
A Season Of Discontent
One year after President Obama took office, the green shoots of optimism that accompanied his inauguration are withering, pummeled by gale-force discontent and anxiety over the prolonged recession, a new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll indicates. . . .

Center for Deliberative Democracy (pdf) 1/15
Hard Times, Hard Choices: Michigan Citizens Deliberate
... Results of Michigan's first Deliberative Poll show what the people of the state would think if they could all become more informed and discuss the issues in depth. ... The resulting changes of opinion in the final survey offer some dramatic recommendations for both policymakers and the public. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/14
Obama Image Unscathed By Terrorism Controversy
In the aftermath of the failed Christmas Day terrorist attack on a Detroit-bound airliner, the government’s ratings for reducing the threat of terrorism have slipped. . . .

McClatchy 1/13
Most Americans would trim liberties to be safer
After a recent attempted terrorist attack set off a debate about full-body X-rays at airports, a new McClatchy-Ipsos poll finds that Americans lean more toward giving up some of their liberty in exchange for more safety. . . .

Gallup 1/12
Healthcare Bill Support Ticks Up; Public Still Divided
Americans' support for U.S. healthcare legislation has crept up incrementally since early November. Now, slightly more Americans want their member of Congress to vote in favor of such legislation rather than against it, 49% vs. 46% -- a first since October. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/12
Blacks Upbeat about Black Progress, Prospects
Despite the bad economy, blacks' assessments about the state of black progress in America have improved more dramatically during the past two years than at any time in the past quarter century, according to a comprehensive new nationwide Pew Research Center survey on race. . . .

CBS News: Charles Cooper 1/12
The Irony Behind Obama's Poll Numbers
In a numbers-driven society, nuanced reflections about presidential job approval will only go so far. In the end, it always comes down to the final numbers - and the newest poll numbers about Barack Obama are not good. . . .

Gallup 1/11
Mormons Most Conservative Major Religious Group
Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or Mormons, are the most conservative major religious group in the country, with 59% identifying as conservative, 31% as moderate, and 8% as liberal. . . .

Politico 1/11
Coakley lead solid in Democratic poll
Martha Coakley enjoys a solid, double-digit lead in the Massachusetts Senate special election, according to an internal Democratic poll obtained by POLITICO. The survey, conducted by longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, has Democrat Coakley, the state attorney general, leading state Republican Sen. Scott Brown 50 percent to 36 percent. . . .

ABC News 1/11
Views Improve Sharply in Afghanistan
Hopes for a brighter future have soared in Afghanistan, bolstered by a broad rally in support for the country's re-elected president, improved development efforts and economic gains. Blame on the United States and NATO for violence has eased – but their overall ratings remain weak. . . .

New York Times 1/11
Voters Crave Reform of Health Care and Congress
... People from both sides of the political spectrum -- and apolitical consumers -- said they were deeply skeptical about the health care bill being put together by Congress and the White House. The concern illustrates the challenge Mr. Obama and Democratic lawmakers face in trying to meld House and Senate bills in a way that can be sold to the public. . . .

Washington Post 1/10
Is race a factor in opposition to health reform?
... According to a recent study by researchers from Stanford and the University of California at Irvine, negative views of the president do appear be correlated with racial bias. . . .

Charles M. Blow 1/9
G.O.P. Grief and Grieving
... According to polls by The New York Times, conservative identification was slightly higher on the verge of Bill Clinton's first-term election and Barack Obama's election than it was on the verge of George W. Bush's first-term election. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 1/8
A Dreary Decade's Long Shadow
... Terror loomed over the decade from start to finish. So did excessive partisan conflict, over security and everything else. That may be two reasons that polls suggest the "Aughts" couldn't end soon enough for most Americans. . . .

Bill Schneider 1/8
The Deepening Partisan Divide
... In 2008, Barack Obama got elected pledging to heal the nation's wounds. But in his very first year, the divisions in the country and in Congress worsened. . . .

Gallup 1/8
More Americans Went Uninsured in 2009 Than in 2008
While President Obama works with House and Senate leaders to hammer out a final healthcare bill before the State of the Union address, the legislation's goal of expanding coverage to the uninsured will need to cover a larger pool of Americans who are without health insurance. . . .

Alan Abramowitz 1/7
Open seats and U.S. House elections
... An examination of data from all 32 House elections since World War II reveals that the relationship between open seats and the outcomes of these elections is actually fairly weak. . . .

Gallup 1/7
Conservatives Finish 2009 as No. 1 Ideological Group
The increased conservatism that Gallup first identified among Americans last June persisted throughout the year, so that the final year-end political ideology figures confirm Gallup's initial reporting: conservatives (40%) outnumbered both moderates (36%) and liberals (21%) across the nation in 2009. . . .

Gallup 1/6
Democratic Support Dips Below Majority Level in 2009
The year 2009 marked the end of a three-year run of majority Democratic support among U.S. adults. Last year, an average of 49.0% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they leaned Democratic, the party's first yearly average below 50% since 2005. . . .

Washington Post 1/6
Results of polls on job satisfaction are at odds
If you're feeling unhappy with your job, you have lots of company. Or you're in a distinct minority. Depends on what poll you read. . . .

Gallup 1/6
Obama Starts 2010 With 50% Approval
President Barack Obama begins his second year as president with 50% of Americans approving and 44% disapproving of his overall job performance. This is well below the 68% approval rating Obama received in his first few days as president, and matches his average for all of December -- which included many days when public support for him fell slightly below that important symbolic threshold. . . .

Mark Mellman 1/6
What those polls really mean
One of the seemingly intractable problems in healthcare polling is deciphering exactly what voters are responding to when asked whether they favor or oppose "reform." Most polls fail to divulge any substantive content of reform plans. . . .
< Health care poll roundup >

Thomas B. Edsall 1/4
Dems' Only Hope: Make The Race About The Other Guy
Democratic incumbents face the most threatening political environment since the Republican landslide of 1994 -- and they know it. ... It's not that voters are suddenly becoming big fans of the Republican Party -- its poll numbers are falling just as rapidly as the Democrats' -- but political scientists and strategists from across the spectrum agree that simply by virtue of being the opposition, the GOP is positioned to make large gains on November 2. . . .

Vanity Fair 1/3
The 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair Poll
Americans like to think of themselves as a commonsensical people -- which, needless to say, often flies in the face of the evidence. And yet, deep down, we know that we're a seething mass of inanities and contradictions -- which demonstrates common sense. How else to wrap the mind around this month's poll? . . .

New York Times 1/3
Americans Doing More, Buying Less
... Quietly but noticeably over the past year, Americans have rejiggered their lives to elevate experiences over things. Because of the Great Recession, a recent New York Times/CBS News poll has found, nearly half of Americans said they were spending less time buying nonessentials, and more than half are spending less money in stores and online. . . .

Washington Post 1/3
Detroit: Grim conditions but optimistic outlooks
... In a new Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation-Harvard University poll about Detroit, almost all residents of the main three-county metropolitan area see their economy as in ruins. About half say this is a bad place to raise a family; as many describe a declining standard of living, swelling debt, deteriorating neighborhoods and a brutal job market. A steadfast optimism, however, shines through the poll. . . .

Politico 1/2
Low favorables: Dems rip Rasmussen
Democrats are turning their fire on Scott Rasmussen, the prolific independent pollster whose surveys on elections, President Obama’s popularity and a host of other issues are surfacing in the media with increasing frequency. . . .

Gallup 12/31
Revisiting the most defining findings of 2009
... January: George W. Bush ends his presidency with an average approval rating of 49%, earning a 34% approval rating in his last official measure. . . .

Washington Post 12/30
Republicans see political opportunity
Republicans are jumping on President Obama's response to the attempted Christmas Day bombing of a U.S. airliner as the latest evidence that Democrats do not aggressively fight terrorism to protect the country, returning to a campaign theme that the GOP has employed successfully over the past decade. . . .

Gallup: Frank Newport 12/30
Top 10 Intriguing Poll Findings of the Year
As the year (and the decade) winds down, I have created a Top 10 list. Not surprisingly, the list focuses on intriguing findings of the year relating to public opinion. . . .

USA Today 12/30
Americans most admire Obama, Clinton, Palin
President Obama is the man Americans admired most in 2009, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, while Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin are virtually tied as the most-admired woman. . . .

ABC News 12/29
Consumer Confidence 2009: Worst Year on Record
Consumer confidence plowed through its worst year in 24 years of weekly polls, weighted down by abysmal ratings of the national economy. . . .

Gallup 12/28
"Political Winners" Circle
In Americans' estimation, the top three political winners of 2009 are all women closely linked with the Obama administration: Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Sonia Sotomayor. . . .

Gallup 12/23
The Decade in Review: Four Key Trends
As 2009 draws down, Gallup reviews four of the key trends that reveal how Americans reacted to the twists and turns experienced in public affairs and the economy over the past decade. . . .

ABC News 12/22
What We Want for Christmas
It's the little things people would like to have for the holidays this year: a job, peace on Earth, parole for the old man. Or, let's say, $20 million. . . .

Mark Mellman (pdf) 12/22
Healthcare Reform
Voters support the content of healthcare reform, while expressing opposition to a "content-less" plan identified with Congress. The individual elements of the legislation are very popular, as is the bill in total, when it is explained. Moreover, the public continues to trust Democrats and the President over Republicans to deal with the issue. . . .

Pew Research 12/21
Current Decade Rates as Worst in 50 Years
As the current decade draws to a close, relatively few Americans have positive things to say about it. By roughly two-to-one, more say they have a generally negative (50%) rather than a generally positive (27%) impression of the past 10 years. . . .

Washington Post 12/21
The big barometer
A new voter analysis of every midterm election from 1978 through 2006 suggests that the single most important number in determining how many House seats will be won or lost by the party in power is the president's job-approval score in the months leading up to the election. . . .

John Russonello 12/20
Spare the religiosity, it is political ideology that matters
A good rule to follow when interpreting election results and voter sentiments is to ignore explanations that rely on references to religion or God. . . .

Kaiser Family Foundation 12/18
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
The December Kaiser Health Tracking Poll finds a dip on several measures of public opinion on health care reform. . . .

Washington Post 12/18
On environment, Obama and scientists take hit in poll
As President Obama arrives in Copenhagen hoping to seal an elusive deal on climate change, his approval rating on dealing with global warming has crumbled at home and there is broad opposition to spending taxpayer money to encourage developing nations to curtail their energy use, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Andrew Kohut 12/17
Obama's 2010 Challenge
As with most presidents at the end of their first year in office, Barack Obama's approval ratings have slipped in 2009, though not as much as the clamor of his critics would suggest. He is almost exactly where Ronald Reagan was at the end of 1981, when he too was struggling with the bad economy he had inherited. . . .

David S. Yeager & Jon A. Krosnick 12/17
Were the Benchmarks Really Wrong?
In a recently posted essay, Humphrey Taylor of Harris Interactive offered a surprising interpretation of data we reported in a recent paper (Yeager et al., 2009). Our paper compared the accuracy of an RDD telephone survey with various surveys done via the Internet. . . .

ABC News 12/17
Glimmers of Recovery, Yet Economic Gloom Stays Deep
There's a slight glimmer of light in public views of the economy: Half of Americans say it's begun to recover. But negatives aplenty threaten to douse that candle. . . .

Pew Research Center 12/16
Mixed Views of Obama at Year's End
Public opinion about President Barack Obama and his major polices continues to be divided as the year comes to a close. . . .

NCHS 12/16
Wireless Substitution
Preliminary results from the January-June 2009 National Health Interview Survey indicate that the number of American homes with only wireless telephones continues to grow. . . .

Gallup 12/16
Majority of Americans Still Not Backing Healthcare Bill
As the U.S. Senate continues working to craft a filibuster-proof healthcare reform bill, a new USA Today/Gallup poll finds public support for such efforts still below the majority level. . . .

David Hill 12/16
Mulling the Muhlenberg message
... [T]his little study examines why Republicans in Pennsylvania have left the party to re-register as Democrats. It provides a descriptive demographic profile of the party-switchers and considers the likelihood that they will return home to the GOP. . . .

Mark Mellman 12/16
Revisiting the G-d gap
In the euphoria following victories in '06 and '08, Democrats' concern about the G-d gap receded. Unfortunately, the gap itself has not. Despite our current economic crisis, cultural politics remains firmly entrenched. . . .

Washington Post 12/15
Public cool to health-care reform
As the Senate struggles to meet a self-imposed, year-end deadline to complete work on legislation to overhaul the nation's health-care system, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds the public generally fearful that a revamped system would bring higher costs while worsening the quality of their care. . . .

Resurgent Republic 12/15
Independents Age 55 and Older Prefer GOP Positions
Voters 55 and older are now extremely concerned about the federal government's current level of spending and debt. Since Resurgent Republic's first survey in April, we have been noting the extent to which budgetary and fiscal issues have been driving Independents away from Democrats and toward Republicans. . . .

New York Times 12/15
Poll Reveals Depth and Trauma of Joblessness
Joblessness has wreaked financial and emotional havoc on the lives of many of those out of work, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll of unemployed adults, causing major life changes, mental health issues and trouble maintaining even basic necessities. . . .

Resurgent Republic 12/11
Older Voters Strongly Reject Dems' Health Care Reform
With their health care reform proposals, Democrats in Congress are digging an enormous political hole with voters age 55 and older, a demographic group that plays an outsized role in non-presidential year elections. . . .

Gallup 12/11
Religious Intensity Powerful Predictor of Politics
... A new analysis of more than 29,000 interviews Gallup conducted in November finds that Republicans outnumber Democrats by 12 percentage points among Americans who are classified as highly religious, while Democrats outnumber Republicans by 30 points among those who are not religious. . . .

Pew Hispanic Center (pdf) 12/11
How Young Latinos Come of Age in America
Hispanics are the largest and youngest minority group in the United States. ... By force of numbers alone, the kinds of adults these young Latinos become will help shape the kind of society America becomes in the 21st century. . . .

Pew Research Center 12/9
Many Americans Mix Multiple Faiths
The religious beliefs and practices of Americans do not fit neatly into conventional categories. A new poll by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life finds that large numbers of Americans engage in multiple religious practices, mixing elements of diverse traditions. . . .

Mark Mellman 12/9
Obama leads a surge -- and the country
... The president’s room for political maneuver is on vivid display in the polls taken after his speech last week in which he outlined his rationale for sending an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. . . .

David Hill 12/9
Tea Party poll results may mislead
... Just when the consensus seemed to be emerging among Tea Partyers that the movement is just that, a movement, provocateur Scott Rasmussen gratuitously and self-servingly stirred the pot by asking a generic congressional ballot question about a hypothetical situation in which Tea Party nominees run in three-way races against Republicans and Democrats. . . .

Gallup 12/9
Honesty, Ethics Poll Finds Congress' Image Tarnished
For the first time in Gallup's annual Honesty and Ethics of Professions poll, a majority of Americans -- 55% -- say the honesty and ethical standards of "members of Congress" are low or very low. ... By contrast, 83% of Americans say nurses have either very high or high ethical standards. . . .

ABC News: Gary Langer 12/7
The Price of Better Polling
Life can get complicated in survey research, and here's a prime example: On the way to better sampling in random-digit-dialed telephone surveys, the theoretical margin of error has, of all things, increased. . . .

Gallup 12/7
Top-Emitting Countries Differ on Climate Change Threat
Together, China, the United States, India, Russia, and Japan account for more than half of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. ... Public opinion about climate change across this mix of developed and major developing economies reveals some remarkable similarities and differences, both in awareness and in the perceived level of threat that global warming poses. . . .

BBC 12/7
Climate change poll shows rising concerns
Concern is rising about climate change around the world, according to a poll by GlobeScan for the BBC. Nearly two-thirds of 24,071 people polled in 23 countries said climate change was a "very serious" problem - up from 44% in a GlobeScan 1998 poll. . . .

New York Times 12/5
It's Just a Texas-Governor Thing
... The Texas Republican gubernatorial primary is thus shaping up to be a public airing of that national party's internal discontents. ... [T]he contest's central question -- whether a highly popular general-election Republican (Hutchison) can defeat a less-popular Republican (Perry) who nonetheless knows how to excite conservative primary voters -- goes to the heart of the party's overall vitality. . . .

Charlie Cook 12/5
Putting Faces On Attitudes
... Last Monday night I got to see Democratic pollster Peter Hart home in on the attitudes of 11 voters for the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center. ... The president's partisans can take comfort from the fact that his supporters have not abandoned him even after 10 months of a tough recession; but Democratic strategists should be quite worried because the warm and fuzzy, hopeful and admiring sentiments expressed about Obama do not extend to Democrats in Congress. . . .

USA Today 12/3
Narrow majority support Obama's Afghan strategy
A narrow majority of Americans support President Obama's revamped strategy on Afghanistan, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Wednesday, but there are broad concerns that the costs of the war will sap the government's ability to address problems facing the nation at home. . . .

Pew Research Center 12/3
U.S. Seen as Less Important, China as More Powerful
The general public and members of the Council on Foreign Relations are apprehensive and uncertain about America's place in the world. Growing numbers in both groups see the United States playing a less important role globally, while acknowledging the increasing stature of China. . . .

World Bank 12/3
Climate Change: Findings from a Multi-Country Poll
A new poll of 15 nations, most of them in the developing world, finds that majorities of the people canvassed want their governments to take steps to fight climate change, even if that entails costs. . . .

ABC News: Gary Langer 12/3
Understanding Answers
Pollsters spend a lot of time thinking about what to ask people. It's at least as important for us to think about how to understand their answers. Here's a suggestion in that direction: In literalism, at least in some data analysis, there's considerably more vice than virtue. . . .

Reuters 12/3
Most in U.S. want public health option
Most Americans would like to see a "public option" in health insurance reform but doubt anything Congress does will lower costs or improve care in the short term, according to a poll released on Thursday. . . .

Institute of Politics, Harvard University (pdf) 12/3
Young Americans' Attitudes Toward Politics
One year and a few weeks after young Americans aged 18 to 29 voted 66 percent to 32 percent to elect Barack Obama the 44th President of the United States, the President has an overall approval rating of 58 percent among this segment of the electorate (compared to 54 percent among all Americans 18+). . . .

Medill Reports 12/3
How to make sense of stories about polls
... Can one poll offer perspective on a topic as complex and controversial as abortion? Maybe, maybe not, according to Peter V. Miller, president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. . . .

Mark Mellman 12/2
Democrats' dilemmas on reform
Moderate and conservative Democrats may feel trapped in a political vise by the healthcare debate. Whatever their own views, the Republicans and conservatives who populate their states and districts are more likely than others to oppose whatever plan emerges. . . .

Pew Research Center 12/1
GOP Seen as Friendlier to Religion than Democrats
More Americans continue to view the Republican Party as friendly toward religion (48%) than rate the Democratic Party that way (29%). President Barack Obama's administration, however, is seen as friendly toward religion by more people (37%) than the Democratic Party as a whole. . . .

ABC News: Gary Langer 12/1
Over Obama's Shoulder, Wartime Presidents Past
If there's a shadow over the proceedings as Barack Obama addresses the nation on his plans for Afghanistan tonight, it may be the ghosts of wartime presidents past. . . .

Washington Post 11/30
A party both united and divided
The Republican rank and file is largely in sync with GOP lawmakers in their staunch opposition to efforts by President Obama and Democrats to enact major health-care legislation, but a new Washington Post poll also reveals deep dissatisfaction among GOP voters with the party's leadership as well as ideological and generational differences that may prove big obstacles to the party's plans for reclaiming power. . . .

Democracy Corps 11/30
Job Creation Now, Deficit Reduction in Future
With unemployment now above 10% and still rising, a new survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Democracy Corps reveals a country more pessimistic than at any point since the earliest days of the Obama presidency. . . .

New York Times 11/30
Unemployment and Midterms
If they crave comfort, Democratic candidates can grab onto this: political science research finds little historical connection between unemployment and midterm Congressional elections. . . .

La Opinión 11/30
Obama still extremely popular among Latinos
President Barack Obama continues to be extremely popular among Latino voters nationwide and receives particularly strong backing from naturalized citizens, according to a new poll by Impremedia, Latino Decisions and the University of New Mexico's Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. . . .

Ross Douthat 11/30
A Generation in the Balance
Do downturns create Democrats? The Great Depression certainly did: The generation that came of age in the 1930s has cleaved to the Democratic Party like no population before or since. . . .

Des Moines Register 11/30
Iowa leans conservative, offering potential for GOP
More Iowans consider themselves to be conservatives than moderates or liberals, offering the state's Republican Party a potentially large pool of converts as it struggles to win back voters, according to a new Iowa Poll. . . .

Washington Post 11/25
Fewer Americans believe in global warming
The percentage of Americans who believe global warming is happening has dipped from 80% to 72% in the past year, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, even as a majority still support a national cap on greenhouse gas emissions. . . .

Pew Research Center: Scott Keeter 11/25
Where the Public Stands on Immigration Reform
Recently the Obama administration announced that it will push for legislation next year to overhaul the nation's immigration system. ... How is the public likely to react to this new push? ...

Pew Research Center: Jodie T. Allen 11/25
Polling Wars: Hawks vs. Doves
Though most Americans are not ready to cut and run, an increasing number are having second thoughts about U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. . . .

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 11/24
Public Opinion on Health Care Issues
As we head toward the holiday season, there is little movement in Kaiser's health reform tracking measures – either in favor or against reform proposals – despite the intense negotiations taking place on Capitol Hill. . . .

Media Matters 11/24
Palin almost as popular as Obama!
Los Angeles Times' Andrew Malcolm tries a nifty little sleight-of-hand in his November 23 blog post titled "Sarah Palin v. Barack Obama: The approval gap silently shrinks to a few points" and gets rewarded by Drudge for it. Problem is, it's not even close to true. . . .

New York Times 11/23
An Unsurprising Slide for Obama
President Obama returned from his trip to Asia facing some unsettling news: two new public-opinion polls showing that his approval rating has dipped below 50% for the first time. . . .

New York Times 11/22
Republicans Eye the Tiger of Populism
... Whatever else it said about America, [Sarah Palin's] return brought into focus a big question for Republicans as they watched the intense reactions she generated: To what extent should they try to energize their electoral prospects by hitching themselves to the powerful but volatile strain of populism — characterized by anti-elitism and deep skepticism of government — that Ms. Palin has come to embody? . . .

ABC News 11/22
Layoffs Take Heavy Emotional Toll
... Three in 10 Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they or someone in their household has lost a job in the past year -- a new high. And the impacts can be devastating: Beyond financial hardship, large numbers report anger, stress and depression as a result. . . .

New York Times 11/21
Whose Recession Is It, Anyway?
President Obama might not like the answer to that question, at least according to CNN: "Nearly two years into the recession, opinion about which political party is responsible for the severe economic downturn is shifting, according to a new national poll. . . ."

Gallup 11/20
Obama Job Approval Down to 49%
The latest Gallup Daily tracking results show 49% of Americans approving of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, putting him below the majority approval level for the first time in his presidency. . . .

A. Gelman, N, Silver, D. Lee 11/19
The Senate's Health Care Calculations
Critics of the health care reform plan often refer to it derisively as "ObamaCare." ... [W]hen it comes to politics, "ObamaCare" could hardly be more apt: lawmakers' support for or opposition to reform generally has less to do with the views of their constituents and more to do with the issue of presidential popularity. . . .

Pew Research Center 11/18
Modest Rise in Concern About Islamic Extremism
The public continues to express concern about the rise of Islamic extremism in the United States and abroad, but a survey taken shortly after the deadly Nov. 5 shootings at the Fort Hood Army base shows only a modest increase in these concerns since 2007. . . .

ABC News 11/17
Views on the Terror Trials
Americans divide evenly on whether to try 9/11 suspects in U.S. civilian courts or military tribunals, a split – like so many – driven chiefly by partisan and ideological differences. . . .

Washington Post 11/17
Deep divisions linger on health care
As the Senate prepares to take up legislation aimed at overhauling the nation's health-care system, President Obama and the Democrats are still struggling to win the battle for public opinion. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Americans deeply divided over the proposals under consideration and majorities predicting higher costs ahead. . . .

Washington Post 11/16
So much for the power of incumbency
Amid the spin spewing from the parties over what this month's elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York meant, there is one indisputable lesson learned: Voters don't like incumbents these days. . . .

Scott Rasmussen & Douglas E. Schoen 11/14
Obama Is Losing Independent Voters
The announcement a week ago of 10.2% unemployment is a significant political event for President Barack Obama. It could well usher in a particularly serious crisis for his political standing, influence and ability to advance his agenda. . . .

GQRR/POS 11/13
Prevention as Part of Health Care Reform
When it comes to health care reform, one thing is clear: the American electorate wants prevention to play a central role in shaping a new direction for our health care system. . . .

Rhodes Cook 11/12
'09 Elections: Some Parting Thoughts
No doubt off-year elections can be overanalyzed. They are few in number. They sometimes give evidence of conflicting trends. And their predictive value for the midterm elections to follow has been rather conclusively debunked. . . .

Pew Research Center 11/12
Battle of the Budget Bulge
Americans are famous both for being weight conscious, and at the same time unable to come to terms successfully with their bloated waistlines. The same paradox has applied to how the public looks at budget deficits for a very long time. . . .

Gary Langer 11/12
Chasing Feathers
... We swim in a sea of manufactured data – produced not to independently know and assess public attitudes or behavior but rather intentionally to misinform or even disinform – to promote a policy or product, an agenda or a point of view, a candidate or a career. . . .

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 11/12
The U.S. Role in Global Health
... As we found in March, the public continues to support maintaining or increasing spending on global health. . . .

David Hill 11/11
Independents recast pollsters
... Independents, by voting almost 2-to-1 for Republicans in Virginia and New Jersey, turned over two governors' mansions. This is particularly interesting because students of partisanship and opinions know that self-professed independents often have belief systems that are outrageously strange. . . .

Mark Mellman 11/11
Lessons from Election '09
Last week, I asserted that Tuesday's election would tell us precious little we did not already know. That prediction proved mostly, though not completely, correct. . . .

Pew Research Center 11/11
A Year Out, Widespread Anti-Incumbent Sentiment
The mood of America is glum. ... Despite the public's grim mood, overall opinion of Barack Obama has not soured – his job approval rating of 51% is largely unchanged since July, although his approval rating on Afghanistan has declined. But opinions about congressional incumbents are another matter. . . .

Gallup 11/11
Republicans Edge Ahead of Democrats in 2010 Vote
Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month. . . .

The State 11/11
South isn't buying Obama health plan
Barack Obama's push to revamp the nation's health care system is getting the cold shoulder from Southerners, according to a new poll by Winthrop University. But the president, who picked up a trio of Southern states in winning the 2008 presidential election, remains well-liked in this region, with solid majorities saying he is warm and friendly, trustworthy and concerned about people like those polled in South Carolina and 10 other Southern states. . . .

Robert Blendon 11/9
Keep an Eye on Public Opinion
... Regardless of public enthusiasm for health reform as a principle, and support for many policy elements in the House bill itself, most Americans do not see their health care situation as getting better if this legislation is signed into law, and some see their situation as getting worse. . . .

Washington Post: Dan Balz 11/8
Republicans seek a path to revival
One year after hitting bottom in the aftermath of President Obama's election, Republicans have taken their first concrete steps toward recovery. But they remain an embattled and divided force, facing an electorate still skeptical about their capacity to govern and embroiled in a struggle between party regulars and populist conservative forces over how to return to power. . . .

Los Angeles Times 11/8
California's best years have passed, voters say
Frustrated at California's woes, voters are sharply pessimistic about whether the next governor will be able to move the state in the right direction, and most believe California is in the midst of a long-term decline, a new Los Angeles Times/USC poll shows. . . .

Pew Research Center 11/6
Public Divided Over Afghan Troop Requests
As President Obama and his staff weigh their difficult choices in the Afghanistan theater, the public also appears to be finding it difficult to judge the merits of different options for expanding, maintaining or contracting the U.S. effort on that front. . . .

Los Angeles Times 11/6
Voters oppose putting gay marriage on ballot next year
A small majority of California voters supports the right of gay couples to marry, but a much larger portion of voters opposes efforts to place the issue back on the ballot next year, a new Los Angeles Times/USC poll has found. . . .

Harvard School of Public Health 11/6
Majority Unable to Get H1N1 Vaccine
A new national poll from Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) researchers found that a majority of adults who tried to get the H1N1 vaccine for themselves or their children have been unable to do so. . . .

ABC News 11/6
Year After Obama vs. McCain, Obama vs. the Economy
A year after he went one-on-one with John McCain, Barack Obama's now playing for time. For all that's transpired since his election as president, public opinion has not moved on the big issue, the current economy. . . .

Alan I. Abramowitz 11/5
What Happens in VA and NJ Stays in VA and NJ
... Before we conclude that Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey provide an early indication of what is likely to happen in next year's midterm elections, we need to take a more systematic look at the evidence. . . .

Monmouth University Polling Institute 11/5
New Jersey: Who Voted, Where and How?
Well, the pundits said that turnout would be the name of the game in New Jersey this year. The problem is we were looking at the wrong type of turnout. While we were busy focusing on core Democratic areas, the Republicans upped the ante on their own turf. . . .

Washington Post 11/5
For parties, the soul-searching begins
... [M]oderate and conservative Democrats took a clear signal from Tuesday's voting, warning that the results prove that independent voters are wary of Obama's far-reaching proposals and mounting spending, as well as the growing federal debt. . . .

Washington Post 11/5
As GOP celebrates, internal ideological battles remain
... As the party turns toward the 2010 midterm elections, pitched battles between moderates and conservatives -- and between the Washington establishment and the conservative grass roots -- are underway from Florida to Illinois to California. . . .

John Zogby 11/4
Reading Tuesday's election results
So what did we learn from Tuesday's elections? And what lessons should Democrats and Republicans draw from the results? . . .

Gallup 11/4
Political Climate Not as Favorable to Democrats
The 2010 election cycle begins in a political climate that is shaping up to be not as favorable to the Democratic Party as the 2006 and 2008 elections were. . . .

Glen Bolger 11/4
VA: An Analysis of Bob McDonnell's Win
Democrat claims that Bob McDonnell's victory in Virginia is just a Republican electorate reasserting itself and has nothing to do with Barack Obama are simply trying to put lipstick on a pig. Saying Virginia is a Republican state is like saying the Washington Redskins are a well-run organization. It was once true, but not any more. . . .

Washington Post: Dan Balz 11/4
Warning to Democrats: It's not 2008 anymore
... Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year's midterm elections. . . .

ABC News 11/4
Exit Polls: Voters Approve of Obama, Wary of Economy
Vast economic discontent marked the mood of Tuesday's off-year voters, portending potential trouble for incumbents generally and Democrats in particular in 2010. Still the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey looked less like a referendum on Barack Obama than a reflection of their own candidates and issues. . . .

David Hill 11/4
Ball-watchers focus on prior results
... While most fans try to follow the ball on every play, the expert's field of view widens to pay attention to defensive schemes, pulling linemen, downfield blocking and a host of other things nowhere near the ball. I wish most political pundits had a wider field of view. . . .

Mark Mellman 11/4
Tell me something I don't know
By the time you read this, thousands of words will have been written about what Tuesday's elections portend — not for the people of New Jersey, Virginia and New York's 23rd congressional district, but for the fate of Democrats and Republicans in 2010. . . .

Democracy Corps 11/3
The Economy at a Sensitive Juncture
With GDP growth having finally returned, but unemployment still rising slowly toward 10 percent, the economy is at a sensitive juncture as an issue for the 2010 elections. . . .

New York Times 11/3
3 Contests Could Signal Political Winds
In this supposedly quiet off-year election, there are three contests taking place Tuesday that are filling the void. Voters in New Jersey and Virginia will elect a governor, while voters in upstate New York are filling a vacant House seat in a race with national implications. Here are some things to look for as the results come in. . . .

Pew Research Center 11/2
End of Communism Cheered but with More Reservations
Nearly two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, publics of former Iron Curtain countries generally look back approvingly at the collapse of communism. ... However, the initial widespread enthusiasm about these changes has dimmed in most of the countries surveyed. . . .

ABC News: Gary Langer 11/2
Tomorrow's Elections: An Obama Referendum?
While spinmeisters from both sides will do their best after tomorrow’s results are in, it's a dicey business to draw broad conclusions from state and local off-year elections. ... But first things first: Is tomorrow's voting a referendum on Barack Obama? . . .

Gallup 11/2
Generic Ballot Provides Clues for 2010 Vote
One year from today, U.S. voters will head to the polls to elect all 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives. Gallup measures voting intentions in midterm elections using the generic congressional ballot, which has proven an accurate predictor of the eventual vote in midterm elections. . . .

John Harwood 11/2
If Fox Is Partisan, It Is Not Alone
The Obama White House's decision to challenge Fox News appears driven equally by strategy and frustration. It is also a test case for politicians in both parties. That is because partisan fragmentation throughout America's news media and their audiences has grown significantly. . . .

Frank Luntz 11/1
Health Reform Language Highlights
I was there in 1994. I saw what happened when a once-popular president tried to push healthcare legislation that Americans didn't want or appreciate. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 10/31
A Reaganite Or Jacksonian Wave?
... From the White House to Capitol Hill, Democrats are wagering that they can sell Americans on a sweeping and in some ways unprecedented expansion of government's reach to confront both the immediate economic downturn and such long-term challenges as health care and climate change. . . .

Gallup 10/30
Americans on Healthcare Reform: Five Key Realities
Americans are closely divided on the issue of passing comprehensive healthcare reform, meaning that public opinion offers no real political advantage to either champions or opponents of the idea. That said, a review of Gallup polls conducted throughout the debate reveals five realities crucial to understanding public opinion on this issue. . . .

Larry J. Sabato 10/29
VA: Look to the north stars
We're heading 'round the final bend in this year's Virginia contest for governor, so it's time to take a look at our traditional gubernatorial "north stars." These stars, fixed in the firmament and reliable indicators for decades, have long guided our prognostications. . . .

New York Times: Marjorie Connelly 10/29
Polls and the Public Option
In recent weeks, polls kept showing solid support for a public insurance option, seeming to breathe new life into its viability as a provision of the health care legislation under way in Congress. In fact, advocates of a public option, from left-leaning groups to pundits to lawmakers, seized on each new number and trumpeted the news across the 24/7 news spectrum of Twitter, TV ads, blogs and headlines. . . .

John Kenneth White (in The Polling Report) 10/28
Barack Obama's America
In 1970, Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg famously defined the "Real Majority" as being "un-young, un-poor, and un-black." ... A shift in the nation's demography and cultural thinking is tilting the electoral landscape in favor of the Democrats. Since 1970, the U.S. has experienced four historic transformations: (1) a racial revolution where whites will be a minority of the U.S. population by mid-century; (2) a revolution in family structures where having a mom, dad, and kids living at home with their biological parents is no longer the norm; (3) a gay rights revolution where greater tolerance toward homosexuals prevails; and (4) a religious revolution where the location of faith is not necessarily in a church building, but in the heart of the individual. Taken together, these trends are undermining Scammon and Wattenberg's Real Majority. This was especially noticeable in 2008, when John McCain performed well among un-young, un-poor, and un-black voters -- and still lost. . . .

USA Today 10/28
1-year poll shows changed views on Obama
Shannon Norris thinks President Obama deserves more time to deliver on his promises from last year's campaign. But not too much more. ... As the anniversary of the election approaches, the tidal wave of hope that swept Obama into office has ebbed and some perceptions of the president have changed, the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. . . .

David Hill 10/28
Gallup says conservatism surging
... But where the Gallup report gets juiciest is in its more important assertion that Americans are also shifting to the conservative perspective on some specific issues, notably government regulation, the influence of labor unions, gun laws, global warming, abortion and even "traditional values." . . .

E.J. Dionne 10/28
Is America really becoming more conservative?
If I were a conservative, I would probably tout the new Gallup study showing that conservatives now outnumber moderates, as Bill Kristol did in his column on Tuesday. But I'd be wary of making too much of what is a rather small shift in the ideological self-description of Americans. And out of curiosity, I checked around with other pollsters to see what they were finding. The results were mixed. . . .

Mark Mellman 10/28
Ironies of healthcare reform
In a republic such as ours, public policy is only loosely related to public opinion. Nonetheless, it is ironic that the most controversial element of healthcare reform with the public seems least controversial on Capitol Hill, while what is most controversial there is least controversial with voters. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/27
2010 Congressional Battleground
... A new survey from Democracy Corps conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research across the 75 most competitive congressional districts suggests potential losses for the Democrats well within the normal historical range. Their losses will be offset by some further Republican losses and are unlikely to approach what it would take for Republicans to regain congressional control. . .

Washington Post 10/27
The Obama factor: Virginia edition
Virginia Democrats hope President Obama's campaign stop today in Norfolk will boost Democratic gubernatorial candidate R. Creigh Deeds' standing and improve turnout in the final days of the campaign, but most in a new Washington Post poll say the president will not affect their vote next Tuesday. . . .

Washington Post 10/27
McDonnell has double-digit lead in Va. governor's race
Republican Robert F. McDonnell carries a double-digit lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds into the final week of the campaign for Virginia governor, according to a new Washington Post poll. . . .

Gallup 10/26
Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group
Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. . . .

Anti-Defamation League 10/26
American Support For Israel Remains Solid
The American people's strong support for Israel remains constant and their support for action to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power has substantially increased, according to a new nationwide survey released by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) today. . . .

Patrick Murray 10/26
NJ: Understanding Unaffiliated Voters
It's time to clear up some confusion about unaffiliated and independent voters. If you are a member of the media who reports on New Jersey election polls or turnout, you should read this. . . .

Washington Post 10/25
Va. GOP makes timely changes
... The changes in Virginia have mirrored shifts that have occurred nationally, helping Democrats win elections by appealing to increasingly diverse, moderate, well-educated and affluent suburban voters outside such cities as Philadelphia, Denver and Minneapolis. ... National Republicans think a victory by McDonnell, who has led in every poll since June, would resonate well beyond Virginia because it would show that although many new, suburban voters have backed Democrats in recent elections, they're not wedded to the party. . . .

Patrick Egan & Joshua Tucker 10/25
Obama and the politics of an Afghanistan troop surge
President Obama faces an enormous political challenge in figuring out how to respond to General Stanley McChrystal's request for more soldiers in Afghanistan. ... No matter what choice Obama makes, he should not be deluded into thinking that his rhetorical gifts can move public opinion on this issue. According to research by Professor George Edwards of Texas A&M University, recent presidents, no matter how golden-tongued, have had virtually no power to change public opinion on foreign policy. . . .

USA Today 10/24
Hopes buoyed on race relations
While some of the soaring optimism of Election Day has tempered, more than six in 10 Americans predict in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll that Barack Obama's presidency will improve race relations in the United States in the years ahead. . . .

Kaiser (pdf)  10/23
Health tracking poll
In contrast to recent months, public opinion on health care reform stabilized in October with no dramatic changes in support, opposition or even public interest. A majority continues to say now is the time for health care reform; several key proposals (individual mandate, public plan) garner public support; opinion on policy specifics remains malleable; partisans are poles apart; and a significant minority remains concerned about their personal welfare if health care reform passes. . . .

Gallup 10/22
Half See Own Costs Worsening Under Healthcare Bill
Compared with last month, Americans have become more likely to say the costs their family pays for healthcare will get worse if a healthcare bill passes. Forty-nine percent of Americans say this, up from 42% in September. Meanwhile, the percentage who expect their costs to improve is unchanged. . . .

Pew 10/22
Fewer See Solid Evidence of Global Warming
There has been a sharp decline over the past year in the percentage of Americans who say there is solid evidence that global temperatures are rising. And fewer also see global warming as a very serious problem – 35% say that today, down from 44% in April 2008. . . .

Rhodes Cook 10/22
Presidents and their party's primaries
On many of the great issues of the day, President Barack Obama has drawn some criticism for a lack of decisive leadership. But he has shown little hesitation in taking sides in some high-profile Democratic primaries that could just as readily divide the party in 2010 as unite it. . . .

Washington Post 10/22
Despite H1N1 fears, many worry about vaccination
Americans have become increasingly alarmed about the swine flu, but many are wary about getting vaccinated against the disease, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Gallup 10/21
Obama Quarterly Approval Average Slips to 53%
In Gallup Daily tracking that spans Barack Obama's third quarter in office (July 20 through Oct. 19), the president averaged a 53% job approval rating. That is down sharply from his prior quarterly averages, which were both above 60%. . . .

Harvard School of Public Health 10/21
MA: Physicians Support Continuing Health Reform Law
A study published in today's New England Journal of Medicine finds that a large majority (70%) of practicing physicians in Massachusetts support health reform three years after its passage in 2006. . . .

Washington Post 10/21
U.S. deeply split on troop increase for Afghan war
As President Obama and his war cabinet deliberate a new strategy for the war in Afghanistan, Americans are evenly and deeply divided over whether he should send 40,000 more troops there, and public approval of the president's handling of the situation has tumbled, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

USA Today 10/21
Americans skittish over health changes
Americans are increasingly worried about the cost and quality of medical care that could result from President Obama's effort to revamp health care, but a majority still trust him more than Republicans to change the system, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows. . . .

Mark Mellman 10/21
Thank heaven for Republicans
With Democrats allegedly on the ropes and voters concerned about rising debt and reeling from growing unemployment, you might think Republicans would be sitting pretty. They aren't -- the Republican brand is in tatters -- and Democrats should be grateful for the GOP's political ineptitude. . . .

ABC News 10/20
Pols, Polls and Pushback
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had some pretty harsh criticism of our latest poll today, charging in a radio interview that it was "deliberately rigged." He's entitled, of course, to his opinion. But not to a distortion of the facts. . . .

Washington Post 10/19
Majority now supports public health insurance option
As Democratic congressional leaders and White House officials work to shape health care bills that will go to the House and Senate floors, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that support for a government-run health plan to compete with private insurers has rebounded from its summertime lows and now wins clear majority support from the public. . . .

Dan Balz 10/18
2010 Threat to Democrats Comes From Three Directions
Three forces threaten Democrats in the 2010 elections: populist anger on the right, disaffection in the middle and potential disillusionment on the left. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 10/17
Is the American Dream a Myth?
One tenet that separates the United States from other countries is our belief in upward mobility. ... But as Brookings Institution scholars Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill demonstrate in a compelling new book, America's record doesn't entirely justify this optimism. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/16
Conservative Republicans: A world apart
The self-identifying conservative Republicans who make up the base of the Republican Party stand a world apart from the rest of America, according to focus groups conducted by Democracy Corps. These base Republican voters ... identify themselves as part of a 'mocked' minority with a set of shared beliefs and knowledge, and commitment to oppose Obama that sets them apart from the majority in the country. . . .

Center for American Progress 10/16
Shriver Report: A Woman’s Nation Changes Everything
... This is a report about how women becoming half of workers changes everything for men, women, and their families. The Rockefeller/Time nationwide poll, conducted in early September as the chapters of the report were being finalized, finds that the battle of the sexes is over and is replaced by negotiations between the sexes about work, family, household responsibilities, child care, and elder care. . . .

New York Times 10/16
Poll Finds Little Faith in New Jersey's Candidates
In New Jersey, one of only two states with governor's races this year, voters are gloomy about the future, upset about their own circumstances and deeply unsettled by the economy. . . .

Andrew Kohut 10/15
But What Do the Polls Show?
... Those who can back up their assertions by pointing to poll results find the going easier than leaders who cannot. In turn, news organizations cover policy initiatives differently when programs appear to have popular support compared with when they do not. As a result, the public has become a more important player in national affairs over the past three decades. . . .

Christian Science Monitor 10/14
Americans want healthcare reform at no cost to them
Democrats in Washington are navigating treacherous electoral terrain as they craft healthcare reform legislation, judging by new polls that show Americans pulled by conflicting desires on healthcare. They are eager for change but hesitant about paying for it. . . .

Gallup 10/12
Obama Job Approval at 56% After Nobel Win
Barack Obama appears to have gotten a slight bounce in support after he was announced as the Nobel Peace Prize winner on Friday. His 56% job approval rating for the last two Gallup Daily tracking updates is up from a term-low 50% as recently as last week, and 53% in the three days before the Nobel winner was announced. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 10/11
Paddling Alone On The Economic Rapids
... The Allstate/National Journal poll's two central findings -- of a shared conviction that average Americans can expect heightened economic instability and a bitter divergence over the proper government response -- seem a recipe for intense political conflict. One final ingredient makes the mix even more volatile: Most Americans say that the past year's tumult has diminished their confidence in government, big companies, banks, and Wall Street. . . .

Pew Research Center 10/9
Majority Continues to Support Civil Unions
A clear majority of Americans (57%) favors allowing gay and lesbian couples to enter into legal agreements with each other that would give them many of the same rights as married couples, a status commonly known as civil unions. . . .

Washington Post 10/8
Poll May Point to Democratic Worries Beyond Va.
The latest Washington Post poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race represents more than bad news for Democratic nominee R. Creigh Deeds. The findings paint a portrait of the electorate that, if replicated elsewhere, stands as a warning sign for President Obama and Democrats who will be running in next year's midterm elections. . . .

Brookings Institution / WorldPublicOpinion.org (pdf) 10/8
Health Care Reform: Battleground or Common Ground?
... Much polling has been conducted in recent months as the health care debate has heated up. However, a large portion of it has focused on the political dynamics. Support for reform has eroded. Views of the administration have cooled, but views of the Republicans are worse. It is not clear whether these tepid responses are to the actual content of reforms proposed or if they are a reaction to the highly partisan character of the debate. . . .

Pew Research Center 10/8
Mixed Views of Economic Policies, Health Care Reform
... On the economy, most Americans remain optimistic that Barack Obama's policies will help, but the public expresses mixed views of the steps he has taken so far and sees no clear signs of recovery at this point. Regarding health care reform, many of the key provisions remain popular though support for the overall package has slipped. . . .

Mark Mellman 10/7
The Jews and the Democrats
... Only three demographic groups gave margins of 50 points or more to John Kerry: African-Americans, gays and Jews. Three groups also gave margins of 50 points or better to Barack Obama: blacks, Jews and those who identify with no religion. . . .

Gallup 10/6
Approval of Congress Falls to 21%
Americans' approval of the job Congress is doing is at 21% this month, down significantly from last month's 31% and from the recent high of 39% in March. ... The current drop in overall job approval to 21% particularly reflects a substantial drop in approval among Democrats, whose 36% rating this month is 18 points lower than last month's 54%, and the lowest since January of this year. . . .

New America Media 10/6
Americans Largely Unaware of Stimulus Opportunities
Americans' opinions about the federal government's $787 billion stimulus package and its impact on the mired economy vary sharply among racial and ethnic groups, according to a survey released today, with ethnic Americans more likely than whites to say it is a "good thing." . . .

ABC News 10/6
The War in Afghanistan: Reassessment, Eight Years On
Significant public compunctions mark the eighth anniversary of the war in Afghanistan – more a gradual shift in Americans' attitudes than a sudden change, but a reassessment nonetheless, one that in many ways reflects the administration's own. . . .

Pew Research Center 10/6
Most Would Use Force to Stop Iranian Nukes
The public approves of direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, although most Americans are not hopeful the talks will succeed. And a strong majority – 61% – says that it is more important to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means taking military action. . . .

Gallup 10/5
Opposition to Healthcare Legislation Drops Modestly
Americans' views on healthcare legislation have shifted modestly over the past three weeks, with a slight plurality (40%) now supporting the passage of a new healthcare bill, and with fewer (36%) saying they oppose a new bill. . . .

Catholics for Choice (pdf) 10/5
National Opinion Survey of Catholic Voters
The fall 2009 Catholics for Choice/Belden Russonello & Stewart survey shows health care reform is among the top issues for Catholic voters. Catholic voters prove to be more progressive than U.S. Catholic Bishops, and to some extent, President Obama, when considering reforms to health care. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 10/3
A Fleeting GOP Boost In 2010
From all indications, the face of the electorate will look very different in 2010 from the way it did in 2008. That prospect presents an immediate danger for Democrats. But it also represents a more subtle, long-term threat for Republicans. . . .

New York Times 10/3
Polling Firm's Reprimand Rattles News Media
For Strategic Vision L.L.C., as for many polling companies, it was a regular practice: for five years the company sent out the results of its surveys on leading political races around the country, and they made their way into blog posts, articles and national television coverage. . . .

Economic Policy Institute (pdf) 10/3
Economic Policy Institute
In a recession often described as deep and severe, we now have one more adjective to add: personal. ... Because the pain of this recession is striking so close to home, Americans strongly support continuing government action to address unemployment. . . .

Harvard School of Public Health 10/2
40% "Absolutely Certain" They Will Get H1N1 Vaccine
In a new survey, Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) researchers found that just 40% of adults are "absolutely certain" they will get the H1N1 vaccine for themselves, and 51% of parents are "absolutely certain" that they will get the vaccine for their children. . . .

ABC News 10/2
Beyond Unemployment, the Damage Resonates
The employment numbers released today underscore what an ugly time it is for the American workforce – a reality that, as our polling shows, resonates beyond the economy to the health care debate, politics and public health alike. . . .

Gallup 10/1
More Independents Lean GOP; Gap Smallest Since '05
In the third quarter of this year, 48% of Americans identified politically as Democrats or said they were independent but leaned to the Democratic Party. At the same time, 42% identified as Republicans or as independents who leaned Republican. . . .

Alan Abramowitz 10/1
Ideology in the American Public
... There is no question that Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 presidential election and the Democratic gains in the 2006 and 2008 congressional elections dramatically changed the ideological make-up of America's political leadership. ... But did this leftward shift among our nation's political elite reflect a similar leftward shift among the American public? . . .

ABC News 10/1
Abortion Support: A Trend Away?
The Pew Research Center's out today with poll results indicating a decline in support for legal abortion this year. Consistency may be the hobgoblin of little minds, as Emerson said, but I'd still like to see more of it behind this argument. . . .

Pew Research Center 10/1
Support For Abortion Slips
... In Pew Research Center polls in 2007 and 2008, supporters of legal abortion clearly outnumbered opponents; now Americans are evenly divided on the question, and there have been modest increases in the numbers who favor reducing abortions or making them harder to obtain. . . .

[ See earlier items ]

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