White House
2004: Democratic Nomination
(p. 2)
All data are from nationwide surveys
of Americans 18 & older. |
See also:
Political figures |
| Polls listed chronologically. |
|
|
CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Poll. Sept. 8-10, 2003. N=407
Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide
who are registered to vote. MoE
± 5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may
be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election.
After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you
would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president
in the year 2004. . . ."
Names rotated
|
|
|
8/4-6/03 |
7/25-27/03 |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
18 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
15 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
15 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
12 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
5 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Other |
4 |
- |
|
|
|
|
No one |
5 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
No opinion |
10 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
6/12-18/03 |
5/30 -
6/1/03 |
4/22-23/03 |
3/14-15/03 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
21 |
20 |
22 |
15 |
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
17 |
14 |
16 |
20 |
|
|
John Kerry |
13 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
|
|
Bob Graham |
7 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
Howard Dean |
7 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
John Edwards |
6 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
|
|
Al Sharpton |
6 |
7 |
3 |
5 |
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
5 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
No one |
5 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
No opinion |
11 |
15 |
9 |
14 |
|
|
|
Zogby International for the Draft
Gore 2004 Committee.
Sept. 5-9, 2003.
N=615 Democratic and independent voters nationwide. MoE ±
4.1. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If the Democratic primary for president were held
today and the candidates were Howard Dean, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, Al
Gore, John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman, for whom would you vote?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Gore |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other (vol.) |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Not sure |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CBS News
Poll. Aug. 26-28,
2003. N=775 registered voters
nationwide. MoE ± 4
(total sample). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"From
what you have heard or read, can you name any of the candidates running for
the 2004 Democratic nomination for president?"
If "Yes":
"Who is the
first one who comes to mind?" |
|
|
|
ALL |
Repub-
licans |
Demo-
crats |
Indepen-
dents |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Yes, can name a candidate |
35 |
39 |
33 |
34 |
|
Howard Dean |
11 |
10 |
12 |
12 |
|
John Kerry |
7 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
5 |
7 |
2 |
6 |
|
John Edwards |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
Richard Gephardt |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
Bob Graham |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
Al Sharpton |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Other |
3 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
|
No, can't name a candidate |
65 |
61 |
67 |
66 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Who would you like to see the Democratic
Party nominate as its
presidential candidate in 2004:
[see below],
or someone else?"
Names rotated |
|
|
|
Demo-
crats |
Indepen-
dents |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
14 |
15 |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
11 |
9 |
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
10 |
8 |
|
|
|
John Kerry |
5 |
7 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
4 |
3 |
|
|
|
John Edwards |
2 |
5 |
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
Other |
15 |
16 |
|
|
|
Don't know |
32 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
Zogby International for DraftWesleyClark.com.
Aug. 16-19, 2003.
N=584 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. MoE ±
4.1. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Thus
far, the Democratic candidates for president in
2004 are [see below]. If
the primary were held today, for whom would you vote?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other (vol.) |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Not sure |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Time/CNN
Poll conducted by Harris Interactive.
July 16-17, 2003.
N=400 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Thinking ahead to the 2004
presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic
presidential nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats
would you vote for? . . ." |
|
|
|
Leaned
Vote |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Joseph Lieberman |
16 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
14 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
12 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
4 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Carol
Moseley Braun |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis
Kucinich |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Other |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Not sure |
23 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
ABC News/Washington
Post Poll. July 9-10,
2003. N=443 Democrats and
Democratic-leaning independents.
MoE ±
4.5. Fieldwork by TNS
Intersearch. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If
the 2004 Democratic presidential primary in your state were being held
today, and the candidates were
[see below],
for whom would you vote?"
Names rotated |
|
|
|
7/03 |
4/03 |
|
. |
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
. |
|
Joseph Lieberman |
13 |
29 |
|
|
|
John Kerry |
12 |
14 |
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
10 |
19 |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
8 |
3 |
|
|
|
John Edwards |
6 |
4 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
6 |
3 |
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
6 |
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
Other (vol.) |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
None (vol.) |
13 |
1 |
|
|
|
Wouldn't vote (vol.) |
7 |
0 |
|
|
|
No opinion |
16 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
ABC News Poll. May 28-June 1,
2003. N=1,029 adults
nationwide. Results shown are among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic.
Fieldwork by TNS
Intersearch. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If
the 2004 Democratic presidential primary in your state were being held
today, and the candidates were
[see below],
for whom would you vote?"
Names rotated |
|
|
|
% |
|
|
. |
|
Hillary Clinton |
37 |
|
|
|
|
Joseph Lieberman |
14 |
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
10 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
7 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
|
|
|
|
None (vol.) |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Wouldn't vote (vol.) |
2 |
|
|
|
|
No opinion |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
Time/CNN
Poll conducted by Harris Interactive.
May 21-22, 2003.
N=368 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"As you
may know, Al Gore has said he will not run for president in 2004. Now
suppose Al Gore changes his mind and runs for the Democratic nomination for
president -- who
would you vote for? . . ." |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Gore |
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joseph Lieberman |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dennis
Kucinich |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carol
Moseley Braun |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Not sure |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Poll. March 14-15, 2003.
N=420
Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide
who are registered to vote. MoE ±
5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may
be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election.
After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you
would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president
in the year 2004. . . ."
|
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Hillary
Rodham Clinton |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
No one |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
No opinion |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Los
Angeles Times Poll. Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 2003.
N=399 registered Democrats nationwide. MoE
± 5
(total sample). |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"I am now going to mention a list of Democrats who have
either declared themselves a candidate for president in 2004 or have formed
an exploratory committee to decide whether they will run for president. I
realize that the first caucus and primary are more than a year away, but if
the Democratic primary or caucus for president were being held in your state
today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote
[see below]?" |
|
|
ALL |
Men |
Women |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
25 |
12 |
35 |
|
|
|
John Kerry |
20 |
24 |
17 |
|
|
|
John Edwards |
8 |
9 |
8 |
|
|
|
Gary Hart |
8 |
10 |
6 |
|
|
|
Dick
Gephardt |
6 |
8 |
4 |
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
6 |
7 |
5 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
Someone else
(vol.) |
- |
1 |
- |
|
|
|
Don't know |
24 |
24 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
NBC News/Wall
Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and
Robert Teeter (R).
Jan. 19-21, 2003. N=1,025
adults nationwide.
These questions were asked of Democrats, as well as non-Democrats who said
they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If
Hillary Clinton decided to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in
2004, and if the next Democratic primary for president were being held
today, which one of these same candidates would you vote for: [see below]?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well,
which way do you lean?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
39 |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
13 |
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
10 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
8 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
|
|
|
|
None/Other
(vol.) |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Not sure |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
ABC
News/Washington Post Poll.
Jan. 16-20, 2003. N=1,133
adults nationwide. Results shown are among
Democrats and independents who lean Democratic.
Fieldwork by TNS
Intersearch. |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Suppose your state holds a
Democratic primary or caucus for president in 2004 and the candidates are
[see below]
-- for whom would you vote?"
If "Don't know":
"Which one are you leaning toward right now?" |
| |
|
1/03 |
7/02 |
|
|
|
| |
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
| |
Joseph Lieberman |
27 |
21 |
|
|
|
| |
Richard
Gephardt |
14 |
13 |
|
|
|
| |
John Edwards |
11 |
7 |
|
|
|
| |
John Kerry |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
| |
Al Sharpton |
7 |
n/a |
|
|
|
| |
Howard Dean |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
| |
Other (vol.) |
1 |
4 |
|
|
|
| |
None (vol.) |
4 |
n/a |
|
|
|
| |
Don't know |
24 |
29 |
|
|
|
| |
Tom Daschle |
n/a |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Poll. Jan. 10-12, 2003.
N=391
Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide
who are registered to vote. MoE ±
5. |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may
be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next
election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those
candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination
for president in the year 2004
. . . ." |
| |
|
1/10-12/03 |
1/3-5/03 |
12/02 |
11/02 |
|
| |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| |
Joe Lieberman |
19 |
18 |
25 |
12 |
|
| |
John Kerry |
17 |
17 |
21 |
12 |
|
| |
Dick Gephardt |
13 |
13 |
14 |
9 |
|
| |
John Edwards |
12 |
14 |
5 |
4 |
|
| |
Bob Graham |
6 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
| |
Gary Hart |
6 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
| |
Al Sharpton |
4 |
4 |
4 |
n/a |
|
| |
Howard Dean |
4 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
|
| |
Other |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
| |
No one |
5 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
|
| |
Undecided |
12 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
|
| |
Tom Daschle |
n/a |
14 |
10 |
12 |
|
| |
Al Gore |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
36 |
|
|
|
Time/CNN
Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Dec. 17-18, 2002.
N=400 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ±
4.9. |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Thinking ahead to the 2004
presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic
presidential nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats
would you vote for? . . ." |
| |
|
With
Clinton |
Without
Clinton |
|
|
|
| |
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
| |
Hillary Clinton |
30 |
n/a |
|
|
|
| |
John Kerry |
13 |
16 |
|
|
|
| |
Joseph Lieberman |
13 |
16 |
|
|
|
| |
Dick Gephardt |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
| |
Tom Daschle |
7 |
9 |
|
|
|
| |
John Edwards |
4 |
8 |
|
|
|
| |
| |