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     White House 2004: General Election (p. 6)


Polls listed chronologically. All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

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Quinnipiac University Poll. Jan. 28-31, 2004. N=1,219 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8.

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"Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?"

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George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
1/28-31/04 43 51 1 1 4
1/21-25/04 49 45 - 1 5
12/03 51 39 2 2 6
10/03 49 43 1 1 5
9/03 53 38 2 2 6
7/03 51 40 1 1 7
6/03 53 37 2 1 6
1-2/03 50 42 1 1 7

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George
W. Bush
John
Edwards
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
1/28-31/04 47 45 1 1 6
1/21-25/04 50 42 1 2 6
12/03 52 37 2 2 6

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Bush Howard
Dean
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
1/28-31/04 49 44 1 2 4
1/21-25/04 54 38 1 2 5
12/03 51 40 2 2 5
10/03 48 42 2 2 6
9/03 53 38 1 2 7
7/03 53 37 2 1 6
1-2/03 53 36 2 2 7

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George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
1/28-31/04 48 45 1 1 5
1/21-25/04 51 41 1 2 5
12/03 50 41 2 1 6
10/03 47 43 1 2 7

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George
W. Bush
Joe
Lieberman
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
1/28-31/04 49 44 1 2 4
1/21-25/04 53 39 1 2 5
12/03 51 40 2 2 5
10/03 48 43 2 2 5
9/03 52 41 1 2 4
7/03 51 41 1 1 5
6/03 53 40 1 1 5
1-2/03 49 43 2 1 5

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Jan. 29-30, 2004. N=1,022 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

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"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or [see below], the Democrat?" Names rotated

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George
W. Bush
Joe
Lieberman
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
1/29-30/04 52 41 7
1/22-23/04 49 45 6
1/8-9/04 52 41 7
12/18-19/03 52 40 8
12/11-12/03 51 42 7
11/6-7/03 48 44 8
10/23-24/03 50 43 7
10/9-10/03 50 42 8
9/25-26/03 51 42 7
7/03 52 39 9
10/02 60 33 7

 

American Research Group Poll. Jan. 27-29, 2004. N=768 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5 (total sample).

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"If the election for president were being held today between George W. Bush, the Republican, and the Democratic nominee for president, for whom would you vote: Bush or the Democratic nominee?" Options rotated

George
W. Bush
Democrat Unsure

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% % %

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ALL 47 46 7

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Republicans 88 2 10

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Democrats 9 85 6

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Independents 46 49 5

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FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 21-22, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

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"If the 2004 presidential election were held today, do you think you would be more likely to vote for Republican George W. Bush OR for the Democratic candidate?" Options rotated

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Bush Democrat Depends
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 43 39 13 5
12/03 43 36 12 9
10/03 44 38 11 7

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"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat [see below]?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision

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George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 49 42 8 1
1/7-8/04 54 32 12 2
7/03 54 35 8 3
5/03 58 29 11 2
12/02 57 29 12 2

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George
W. Bush
John
Edwards
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 51 39 9 1

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George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 54 34 9 3
1/7-8/04 54 33 10 3
11/03 49 36 12 3
7/03 55 27 15 3

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George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 51 37 11 1
1/7-8/04 52 32 14 2
11/03 49 36 13 2
9/03 46 37 7 10

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George
W. Bush
Hillary
Clinton
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 52 39 7 2
11/03 52 38 8 2
7/03 52 35 10 3
5/03 60 30 8 2
11/02 59 24 16 1
8/02 58 28 12 2
1/01 45 34 21 -

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Jan. 15-18, 2004. N=1,036 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.

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"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, or for the Democratic nominee for president?" Options rotated

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Bush Democrat Neither/
Other (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
Among ALL adults:
1/15-18/04 48 46 2 2 3
Among registered voters:
12/18-21/03 51 41 4 1 3
10/26-29/03 48 47 2 1 2
10/9-13/03 44 49 3 1 3
Among ALL adults:
9/03 49 44 3 2 2
8/03 48 40 3 1 7
4/03 53 40 2 1 3

 

Zogby America Poll. Jan. 15-18, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

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"If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican George W. Bush or the Democratic candidate?" Options rotated. Trend includes slight variations in wording.

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George
W. Bush
Democrat Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
1/15-18/04 41 45 2 12
12/15-17/03 47 42 2 9
12/4-6/03 43 41 3 13
11/3-5/03 41 41 2 16
10/15-18/03 43 45 1 12
9/22-24/03 41 45 3 12
9/3-5/03 39 47 3 11
8/16-19/03 43 42 2 13
7/16-17/03 47 44 1 8
6/6-10/03 44 37 3 16
3/03 48 38 2 13

 

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Jan. 14-15, 2004. N=1,003 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

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"If George W. Bush runs for reelection, how likely are you to vote for him: very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?"

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Very
Likely
Some-
what
Likely
Some-
what
Unlikely
Very
Unlikely
Not
Sure
% % % % %

1/14-15/04

30 19 12 36 3

12/30/03 & 1/1/04

33 18 8 38 3

11/03

32 15 10 38 5

7/03

33 17 10 36 4

5/03

38 18 8 33 3

3/03

40 16 9 32 3

10/02

35 19 8 32 6

1/02

40 23 11 22 4

5/01

26 17 8 42 7

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Jan. 10-12, 2004. N=1,002 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

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"If the next election for president were held today, and George W. Bush were running as the Republican candidate and [see below] were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"

George
W.
Bush
Howard
Dean
Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % %
1/10-12/04 54 37 2 4 4
12/14/03 52 31 3 4 10
12/13/03 51 39 1 4 5
11/03 50 35 2 6 8
9/03 48 35 3 7 8
7/03 52 30 3 7 8

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George
W.
Bush
Wesley
Clark
Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % %
1/10-12/04 53 35 2 4 6
12/14/03 53 28 2 4 13
12/13/03 50 34 2 4 10
11/03 49 37 2 5 7
9/03 45 38 2 5 11