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White House
2004: General Election
(p. 6)
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| Polls listed chronologically.
All data are from nationwide surveys
of Americans 18 & older. |
|
Quinnipiac University
Poll. Jan. 28-31, 2004.
N=1,219 registered voters nationwide. MoE ±
2.8. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Suppose the
general election for president were being held today, and
the candidates were [see below] the
Democrat, and George W. Bush
the Republican, for whom would you vote?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Someone
Else
(vol.) |
Wouldn't
Vote
(vol.) |
Don't
Know |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
1/28-31/04 |
43 |
51 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
|
1/21-25/04 |
49 |
45 |
- |
1 |
5 |
|
12/03 |
51 |
39 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
|
10/03 |
49 |
43 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
|
9/03 |
53 |
38 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
|
7/03 |
51 |
40 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
|
6/03 |
53 |
37 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
1-2/03 |
50 |
42 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Edwards |
Someone
Else (vol.) |
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.) |
Don't
Know |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
1/28-31/04 |
47 |
45 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
|
1/21-25/04 |
50 |
42 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
|
12/03 |
52 |
37 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Bush |
Howard
Dean |
Someone
Else
(vol.) |
Wouldn't
Vote
(vol.) |
Don't
Know |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
1/28-31/04 |
49 |
44 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
|
1/21-25/04 |
54 |
38 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
|
12/03 |
51 |
40 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
|
10/03 |
48 |
42 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
|
9/03 |
53 |
38 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
|
7/03 |
53 |
37 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
1-2/03 |
53 |
36 |
2 |
2 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
Wesley
Clark |
Someone
Else
(vol.) |
Wouldn't
Vote
(vol.) |
Don't
Know |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
1/28-31/04 |
48 |
45 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
|
1/21-25/04 |
51 |
41 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
|
12/03 |
50 |
41 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
10/03 |
47 |
43 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
Joe
Lieberman |
Someone
Else
(vol.) |
Wouldn't
Vote
(vol.) |
Don't
Know |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
1/28-31/04 |
49 |
44 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
|
1/21-25/04 |
53 |
39 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
|
12/03 |
51 |
40 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
|
10/03 |
48 |
43 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
|
9/03 |
52 |
41 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
|
7/03 |
51 |
41 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
|
6/03 |
53 |
40 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
|
1-2/03 |
49 |
43 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
Newsweek Poll
conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Jan.
29-30, 2004. N=1,022 registered voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Suppose the next
general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose
between George W. Bush, the Republican, and
[see below],
the Democrat -- who
would you vote for?"
If "Other"
or "Undecided":
"As
of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the
Republican, or
[see below],
the Democrat?" Names rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
Joe
Lieberman |
Other (vol.)/
Undecided |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
1/29-30/04 |
52 |
41 |
7 |
|
|
|
1/22-23/04 |
49 |
45 |
6 |
|
|
|
1/8-9/04 |
52 |
41 |
7 |
|
|
|
12/18-19/03 |
52 |
40 |
8 |
|
|
|
12/11-12/03 |
51 |
42 |
7 |
|
|
|
11/6-7/03 |
48 |
44 |
8 |
|
|
|
10/23-24/03 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
|
|
10/9-10/03 |
50 |
42 |
8 |
|
|
|
9/25-26/03 |
51 |
42 |
7 |
|
|
|
7/03 |
52 |
39 |
9 |
|
|
|
10/02 |
60 |
33 |
7 |
|
|
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|
American
Research Group Poll. Jan. 27-29, 2004. N=768
registered voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3.5 (total
sample). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If the election for president were being held
today between George W. Bush, the Republican, and the Democratic nominee for
president, for whom would you vote: Bush or the
Democratic nominee?"
Options rotated |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
Democrat |
Unsure |
|
. |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
. |
|
ALL |
47 |
46 |
7 |
|
. |
|
Republicans |
88 |
2 |
10 |
|
. |
|
Democrats |
9 |
85 |
6 |
|
. |
|
Independents |
46 |
49 |
5 |
|
. |
|
|
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll.
Jan. 21-22, 2004. N=900 registered voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If the 2004 presidential election were held today, do
you think you would be more likely to vote for
Republican
George W. Bush OR for
the Democratic candidate?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Bush |
Democrat |
Depends
(vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
1/21-22/04 |
43 |
39 |
13 |
5 |
|
|
|
12/03 |
43 |
36 |
12 |
9 |
|
|
|
10/03 |
44 |
38 |
11 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
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"If the election for president of the United
States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were
Republican George W. Bush and Democrat
[see below]?"
Names rotated; respondents
pushed for decision |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Neither
(vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
1/21-22/04 |
49 |
42 |
8 |
1 |
|
|
|
1/7-8/04 |
54 |
32 |
12 |
2 |
|
|
|
7/03 |
54 |
35 |
8 |
3 |
|
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|
5/03 |
58 |
29 |
11 |
2 |
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|
12/02 |
57 |
29 |
12 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Edwards |
Neither
(vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
1/21-22/04 |
51 |
39 |
9 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
Howard
Dean |
Neither
(vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
1/21-22/04 |
54 |
34 |
9 |
3 |
|
|
|
1/7-8/04 |
54 |
33 |
10 |
3 |
|
|
|
11/03 |
49 |
36 |
12 |
3 |
|
|
|
7/03 |
55 |
27 |
15 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
Wesley
Clark |
Neither
(vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
1/21-22/04 |
51 |
37 |
11 |
1 |
|
|
|
1/7-8/04 |
52 |
32 |
14 |
2 |
|
|
|
11/03 |
49 |
36 |
13 |
2 |
|
|
|
9/03 |
46 |
37 |
7 |
10 |
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|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
Hillary
Clinton |
Neither
(vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
1/21-22/04 |
52 |
39 |
7 |
2 |
|
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|
11/03 |
52 |
38 |
8 |
2 |
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|
7/03 |
52 |
35 |
10 |
3 |
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|
5/03 |
60 |
30 |
8 |
2 |
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|
11/02 |
59 |
24 |
16 |
1 |
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8/02 |
58 |
28 |
12 |
2 |
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|
1/01 |
45 |
34 |
21 |
- |
|
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|
ABC News/Washington Post
Poll. Jan. 15-18, 2004.
N=1,036 adults nationwide. MoE ±
3. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If
the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for
George W. Bush, the Republican, or for the
Democratic nominee for president?"
Options rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Bush |
Democrat |
Neither/
Other
(vol.) |
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.) |
No
Opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Among ALL adults: |
|
1/15-18/04 |
48 |
46 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
|
Among
registered voters: |
|
12/18-21/03 |
51 |
41 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
|
10/26-29/03 |
48 |
47 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
10/9-13/03 |
44 |
49 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
|
Among ALL adults: |
|
9/03 |
49 |
44 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
8/03 |
48 |
40 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
|
4/03 |
53 |
40 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
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|
Zogby America Poll.
Jan. 15-18, 2004.
N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE
± 3.2. |
|
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|
|
. |
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|
"If
the election for president were held today, for whom would you
vote: the Republican George W. Bush or the
Democratic candidate?"
Options rotated. Trend
includes slight variations in wording. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
Democrat |
Other
(vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
1/15-18/04 |
41 |
45 |
2 |
12 |
|
|
12/15-17/03 |
47 |
42 |
2 |
9 |
|
|
12/4-6/03 |
43 |
41 |
3 |
13 |
|
|
11/3-5/03 |
41 |
41 |
2 |
16 |
|
|
10/15-18/03 |
43 |
45 |
1 |
12 |
|
|
9/22-24/03 |
41 |
45 |
3 |
12 |
|
|
9/3-5/03 |
39 |
47 |
3 |
11 |
|
|
8/16-19/03 |
43 |
42 |
2 |
13 |
|
|
7/16-17/03 |
47 |
44 |
1 |
8 |
|
|
6/6-10/03 |
44 |
37 |
3 |
16 |
|
|
3/03 |
48 |
38 |
2 |
13 |
|
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|
Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive.
Jan. 14-15,
2004. N=1,003
adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If George W. Bush
runs for reelection, how likely are you to vote for him: very likely, somewhat likely,
somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?" |
|
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|
|
. |
|
|
|
Very
Likely |
Some-
what
Likely |
Some-
what
Unlikely |
Very
Unlikely |
Not
Sure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
1/14-15/04 |
30 |
19 |
12 |
36 |
3 |
|
12/30/03 & 1/1/04 |
33 |
18 |
8 |
38 |
3 |
|
11/03 |
32 |
15 |
10 |
38 |
5 |
|
7/03 |
33 |
17 |
10 |
36 |
4 |
|
5/03 |
38 |
18 |
8 |
33 |
3 |
|
3/03 |
40 |
16 |
9 |
32 |
3 |
|
10/02 |
35 |
19 |
8 |
32 |
6 |
|
1/02 |
40 |
23 |
11 |
22 |
4 |
|
5/01 |
26 |
17 |
8 |
42 |
7 |
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|
NBC
News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted
by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R).
Jan. 10-12, 2004. N=1,002
adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If the next election for president were held today, and
George W. Bush were running as the Republican candidate and [see below]
were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?" |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
Howard
Dean |
Depends
(vol.) |
Neither/
Other (vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
1/10-12/04 |
54 |
37 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
|
12/14/03 |
52 |
31 |
3 |
4 |
10 |
|
12/13/03 |
51 |
39 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
|
11/03 |
50 |
35 |
2 |
6 |
8 |
|
9/03 |
48 |
35 |
3 |
7 |
8 |
|
7/03 |
52 |
30 |
3 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
George
W. Bush |
Wesley
Clark |
Depends
(vol.) |
Neither/
Other (vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
1/10-12/04 |
53 |
35 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
|
12/14/03 |
53 |
28 |
2 |
4 |
13 |
|
12/13/03 |
50 |
34 |
2 |
4 |
10 |
|
11/03 |
49 |
37 |
2 |
5 |
7 |
|
9/03 |
45 |
38 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
|
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