|
|
White House
2004: General Election
(p. 5)
|
|
| Polls listed chronologically.
All data are from nationwide surveys
of Americans 18 & older. |
|
CNN/USA
Today/Gallup
Poll. June 21-23, 2004.
N=722 likely voters nationwide. MoE ±
4. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If Massachusetts Senator
John Kerry were the Democratic Party's
candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who
would you be more likely to vote for: John Kerry,
the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?"
If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward John
Kerry, the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?"
Names rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Neither
(vol.) |
Other
(vol.) |
No
Opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
6/21-23/04 |
49 |
48 |
1 |
- |
2 |
|
6/3-6/04 |
44 |
50 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
5/21-23/04 |
47 |
49 |
1 |
- |
3 |
|
5/7-9/04 |
48 |
47 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
5/2-4/04 |
48 |
49 |
1 |
- |
2 |
|
4/16-18/04 |
51 |
46 |
2 |
- |
1 |
|
4/5-8/04 |
48 |
45 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
|
3/26-28/04 |
51 |
47 |
1 |
- |
1 |
|
3/5-7/04 |
44 |
52 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
2/16-17/04 |
43 |
55 |
1 |
- |
1 |
|
2/6-8/04 |
49 |
48 |
1 |
- |
2 |
|
1/29 - 2/1/04 |
46 |
53 |
- |
- |
1 |
|
1/9-11/04 |
55 |
43 |
1 |
- |
1 |
|
Among registered
voters: |
|
11/03 |
52 |
46 |
1 |
- |
1 |
|
9/03 |
47 |
48 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate,
who would you be most likely to vote for: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the
Republican, or
Nader, the independent?"
If undecided:
"As of today, do you lean more toward: Kerry, the Democrat,
Bush, the Republican, or
Nader, the independent?"
Names rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Ralph
Nader |
None/
Other (vol.) |
No
Opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
6/21-23/04 |
48 |
47 |
3 |
- |
2 |
|
6/3-6/04 |
43 |
49 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
|
5/21-23/04 |
46 |
47 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
|
5/7-9/04 |
47 |
45 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
|
5/2-4/04 |
47 |
47 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
4/16-18/04 |
50 |
44 |
4 |
- |
2 |
|
4/5-8/04 |
47 |
43 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
|
3/26-28/04 |
49 |
45 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
|
3/5-7/04 |
44 |
50 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
ABC News/Washington
Post
Poll. June 17-20,
2004. N=1,015 registered voters nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If the 2004 presidential
election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the
Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, or Ralph Nader, the independent?"
If undecided: "Which
one are you leaning toward?"
Names rotated.
Trend includes variation in wording. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Ralph
Nader |
None/
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.) |
No
Opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
6/17-20/04 |
44 |
48 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
|
5/20-23/04 |
46 |
46 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
|
4/15-18/04 |
48 |
43 |
6 |
3 |
- |
|
3/4-7/04 |
44 |
48 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
Asked of Nader
supporters and undecideds:
"If Nader
does not run or is not on the ballot, for whom
would you vote: Bush or Kerry?" If undecided:
"Which one are you leaning toward?"
Names rotated.
|
|
Combined results of this
question and preceding question: |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Neither
(vol.) |
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.) |
No
Opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
6/17-20/04 |
45 |
53 |
1 |
1 |
- |
|
5/20-23/04 |
47 |
49 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
4/15-18/04 |
49 |
48 |
2 |
1 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
TREND:
"If
the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for
George W. Bush, the Republican, or for John Kerry, the Democrat?"
Names rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Other/
Neither
(vol.) |
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.) |
No
Opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
3/4-7/04 |
44 |
53 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
2/10-11/04 |
43 |
52 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
10/03 |
52 |
43 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Among ALL adults: |
|
9/03 |
54 |
39 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
4/03 |
60 |
34 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
Pew
Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey
Research Associates International.
June 3-13, 2004. N=1,426 registered voters
nationwide. MoE ±
3. |
. |
|
"Now, suppose the 2004
presidential election were being held TODAY. If you had to choose between
George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat,
and Ralph
Nader, who would you vote for?"
If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more
to [see below]?"
Names
rotated |
. |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Ralph
Nader |
Other/
Unsure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
6/3-13/04 |
46 |
42 |
6 |
6 |
|
|
5/3-9/04 |
43 |
46 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
3/22-28/04 |
44 |
43 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
3/17-21/04 |
42 |
49 |
4 |
5 |
|
. |
|
"Suppose there were only two
major candidates for president and you had to choose between George W.
Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the
Democrat -- who would you vote for?"
If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more
to [see below]?"
Names
rotated |
. |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Other/
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
6/3-13/04 |
48 |
46 |
6 |
|
|
|
5/3-9/04 |
45 |
50 |
5 |
|
|
|
3/22-28/04 |
46 |
47 |
7 |
|
|
|
3/17-21/04 |
43 |
52 |
5 |
|
|
|
2/24-29/04 |
44 |
48 |
8 |
|
|
|
2/11-16/04 |
47 |
47 |
6 |
|
|
|
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 |
52 |
41 |
7 |
|
|
|
10/03 |
50 |
42 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll.
June 8-9, 2004. N=900 registered voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"In
the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President
George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for president and
[see below]
for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you
support?" |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Bush/
Cheney |
Kerry/
Gephardt |
Neither
(vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
6/8-9/04 |
44 |
45 |
3 |
8 |
|
|
|
5/18-19/04 |
43 |
42 |
3 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Bush/
Cheney |
Kerry/
Dean |
Neither
(vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
6/8-9/04 |
44 |
45 |
3 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public
Affairs. June 7-9, 2004.
N=788 registered voters nationwide. MoE ±
3.5 (total sample). |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"I'm going to read you the names of some possible
running mates for John Kerry on the Democratic ticket for president this
year. Please tell me which one of the following individuals you would most
like to see John Kerry choose as a candidate for vice president.
[See below.]"
Half-sample (Form A) |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
ALL |
Democrats |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
North
Carolina Senator John Edwards |
36 |
43 |
|
|
Missouri
Congressman Dick Gephardt |
19 |
19 |
|
|
Retired
General Wesley Clark |
18 |
18 |
|
|
Iowa Governor
Tom Vilsack |
4 |
4 |
|
|
Other/None of
these (vol.) |
6 |
4 |
|
|
Undecided |
17 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"I'm going to read you the names of some possible
running mates for John Kerry on the Democratic ticket for president this
year. Please tell me which one of the following individuals you would most
like to see John Kerry choose as a candidate for vice president.
[See below.]"
Half-sample (Form B) |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
ALL |
Democrats |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
North
Carolina Senator John Edwards |
34 |
42 |
|
|
New York
Senator Hillary Clinton |
24 |
31 |
|
|
Retired
General Wesley Clark |
17 |
13 |
|
|
Missouri
Congressman Dick Gephardt |
12 |
8 |
|
|
Iowa Governor
Tom Vilsack |
2 |
3 |
|
|
Other/None of
these (vol.) |
3 |
1 |
|
|
Undecided |
8 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Do you think President Bush should keep Dick
Cheney as his vice-presidential running mate in
2004, or do you think he should pick someone else?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Keep
Cheney |
Someone
Else |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
ALL |
51 |
43 |
6 |
|
|
|
Republicans |
68 |
28 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"If the election
were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush for president and
Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, and John Kerry for
president and
[see below]
for vice president, the Democrats, and Ralph Nader, the
independent, for whom would you vote?"
If "other,"
"none," or
"not sure": "Do
you lean more toward
[see below]?" |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Bush/
Cheney |
Kerry/
Gephardt |
Ralph
Nader |
Other/
None (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
6/7-9/04 |
47 |
45 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Bush/
Cheney |
Kerry/
Clark |
Ralph
Nader |
Other/
None (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
6/7-9/04 |
47 |
43 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Bush/
Cheney |
Kerry/
Vilsack |
Ralph
Nader |
Other/
None (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
6/7-9/04 |
47 |
43 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
The
Los Angeles Times Poll. June 5-8, 2004. N=1,230 registered voters
nationwide. MoE ±
3. |
. |
|
"If the November general
election for president were being held today and the candidates were George
W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, for whom would you
vote: Bush, or Kerry?"
Names
rotated. Includes leaners. |
. |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Someone
Else (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
6/5-8/04 |
44 |
51 |
1 |
4 |
|
|
3/27-30/04 |
46 |
49 |
- |
5 |
|
. |
|
"If the November general
election for president were being held today and the candidates were George
W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader running
as an independent, for whom would you vote: Bush, Kerry or Nader?"
Names
rotated. Includes leaners. |
. |
|
|
George
W. Bush |
John
Kerry |
Ralph
Nader |
Someone
Else (vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
6/5-8/04 |
42 |
48 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
|
3/27-30/04 |
44 |
47 |
4 |
- |
5 |
|
|
CBS News
Poll.
May 20-23, 2004.
N=923 registered voters nationwide. MoE ±
3 (total sample). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held
today, and the candidates were John Kerry for president and John McCain for
vice president, and George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice
president, would you vote for Kerry and McCain or Bush and Cheney?"
Names
rotated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
Bush/
Cheney |
Kerry/
McCain |
Other/
Depends
(vol.) |
Won't
Vote (vol.) |
Don't
Know |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALL |
39 |
53 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
|
Republicans |
80 |
15 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
|
Democrats |
11 |
80 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
|
Independents |
31 |
57 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
|
|
Mother Jones poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D).
May 17-22, 2004. N=1,007
registered voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"Thinking about the elections
in November, if the election for president were held today and the
candidates were Republican George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry,
for whom would you vote: George Bush or John
Kerry?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
George
Bush |
John
Kerry |
Other
(vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
5/17-22/04 |
44 |
49 |
1 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"It the
candidates for president were Republican George Bush, Democrat John Kerry,
and independent Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
George
Bush |
John
Kerry |
Ralph
Nader |
Other
(vol.) |
Unsure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
5/17-22/04 |
43 |
46 |
5 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll.
May 18-19, 2004. N=900 registered voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3. |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"In
the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President
George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for president and
[see below] for vice president. If the election were held today, which
ticket would you support?" |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Bush/
Cheney |
Kerry/
Edwards |
Neither
(vol.) |
Not
Sure |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
5/18-19/04 |
43 |
43 |
3 |
11 |
|
|
|
3/23-24/04 |
43 |
48 |
2 |
7 |
|
|
|
3/3-4/04 |
45 |
45 |
2 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Newsweek
Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. May
13-14, 2004.
N=832 registered voters nationwide.
MoE ± 4 (for all registered voters). |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Suppose the election for president were being
held TODAY and the candidates were George W. Bush,
the Republican; John Kerry, the Democrat; and Ralph Nader, an
independent candidate. Who would you vote for?"
If "Other"
or "Undecided":
"As
of TODA | |