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     White House 2004: General Election (p. 5)


Polls listed chronologically. All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

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CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. June 21-23, 2004. N=722 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: John Kerry, the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward John Kerry, the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Neither
(vol.)
Other
(vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %

6/21-23/04

49 48 1 - 2

6/3-6/04

44 50 2 1 3

5/21-23/04

47 49 1 - 3

5/7-9/04

48 47 2 1 2

5/2-4/04

48 49 1 - 2

4/16-18/04

51 46 2 - 1

4/5-8/04

48 45 4 1 2

3/26-28/04

51 47 1 - 1
3/5-7/04 44 52 2 1 1
2/16-17/04 43 55 1 - 1
2/6-8/04 49 48 1 - 2
1/29 - 2/1/04 46 53 - - 1
1/9-11/04 55 43 1 - 1
Among registered voters:
11/03 52 46 1 - 1
9/03 47 48 2 1 2

.

"Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican, or Nader, the independent?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican, or Nader, the independent?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
None/
Other (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %

6/21-23/04

48 47 3 - 2

6/3-6/04

43 49 5 1 2

5/21-23/04

46 47 4 1 2

5/7-9/04

47 45 5 2 1

5/2-4/04

47 47 3 1 2

4/16-18/04

50 44 4 - 2

4/5-8/04

47 43 4 3 3

3/26-28/04

49 45 4 1 1
3/5-7/04 44 50 2 2 2

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. June 17-20, 2004. N=1,015 registered voters nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, or Ralph Nader, the independent?" If undecided: "Which one are you leaning toward?" Names rotated. Trend includes variation in wording.

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
None/
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
6/17-20/04 44 48 6 1 1
5/20-23/04 46 46 4 2 1
4/15-18/04 48 43 6 3 -
3/4-7/04 44 48 3 3 2

.

Asked of Nader supporters and undecideds:
"
If Nader does not run or is not on the ballot, for whom would you vote: Bush or Kerry?" If undecided: "Which one are you leaning toward?" Names rotated.
 

Combined results of this question and preceding question:

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Neither
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
6/17-20/04 45 53 1 1 -
5/20-23/04 47 49 1 1 1
4/15-18/04 49 48 2 1 -

.

TREND:
"
If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, or for John Kerry, the Democrat?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Other/
Neither
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
3/4-7/04 44 53 1 1 1
2/10-11/04 43 52 3 1 1
10/03 52 43 2 1 2
Among ALL adults:
9/03 54 39 3 2 2
4/03 60 34 2 1 2

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. June 3-13, 2004. N=1,426 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"Now, suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY. If you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated

.

George
W.
Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Other/
Unsure
% % % %
6/3-13/04 46 42 6 6
5/3-9/04 43 46 6 5
3/22-28/04 44 43 6 7
3/17-21/04 42 49 4 5

.

"Suppose there were only two major candidates for president and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated

.

George
W.
Bush
John
Kerry
Other/
Unsure
% % %
6/3-13/04 48 46 6
5/3-9/04 45 50 5
3/22-28/04 46 47 7
3/17-21/04 43 52 5
2/24-29/04 44 48 8
2/11-16/04 47 47 6
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 52 41 7
10/03 50 42 8

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. June 8-9, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"In the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Gephardt
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
6/8-9/04 44 45 3 8
5/18-19/04 43 42 3 12

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Dean
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
6/8-9/04 44 45 3 8

 

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. June 7-9, 2004. N=788 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5 (total sample).

.

"I'm going to read you the names of some possible running mates for John Kerry on the Democratic ticket for president this year. Please tell me which one of the following individuals you would most like to see John Kerry choose as a candidate for vice president. [See below.]" Half-sample (Form A)

.

    ALL Democrats
    % %
North Carolina Senator John Edwards 36 43
Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt 19 19
Retired General Wesley Clark 18 18
Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack 4 4
Other/None of these (vol.) 6 4
Undecided 17 12

.

"I'm going to read you the names of some possible running mates for John Kerry on the Democratic ticket for president this year. Please tell me which one of the following individuals you would most like to see John Kerry choose as a candidate for vice president. [See below.]" Half-sample (Form B)

.

    ALL Democrats
    % %
North Carolina Senator John Edwards 34 42
New York Senator Hillary Clinton 24 31
Retired General Wesley Clark 17 13
Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt 12 8
Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack 2 3
Other/None of these (vol.) 3 1
Undecided 8 2

.

"Do you think President Bush should keep Dick Cheney as his vice-presidential running mate in 2004, or do you think he should pick someone else?"

.

Keep
Cheney
Someone
Else
Unsure  
% % %  
ALL 51 43 6  
  Republicans 68 28 4  

.

"If the election were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, and John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president, the Democrats, and Ralph Nader, the independent, for whom would you vote?" If "other," "none," or "not sure": "Do you lean more toward [see below]?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Gephardt
Ralph
Nader
Other/
None (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
6/7-9/04 47 45 6 1 1

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Clark
Ralph
Nader
Other/
None (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
6/7-9/04 47 43 6 1 2

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Vilsack
Ralph
Nader
Other/
None (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
6/7-9/04 47 43 7 2 1

 

The Los Angeles Times Poll. June 5-8, 2004. N=1,230 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, for whom would you vote: Bush, or Kerry?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.

.

George
W.
Bush
John
Kerry
Someone
Else (vol.)
Unsure
% % % %
6/5-8/04 44 51 1 4
3/27-30/04 46 49 - 5

.

"If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader running as an independent, for whom would you vote: Bush, Kerry or Nader?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.

.

George
W.
Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Someone
Else (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
6/5-8/04 42 48 4 1 5
3/27-30/04 44 47 4 - 5

 

CBS News Poll. May 20-23, 2004. N=923 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3 (total sample).

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry for president and John McCain for vice president, and George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, would you vote for Kerry and McCain or Bush and Cheney?" Names rotated

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
McCain
Other/
Depends
(vol.)
Won't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
ALL 39 53 3 1 4
  Republicans 80 15 0 1 4
  Democrats 11 80 3 1 5
  Independents 31 57 4 2 6

 

Mother Jones poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). May 17-22, 2004. N=1,007 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"Thinking about the elections in November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry, for whom would you vote: George Bush or John Kerry?"

       
George
Bush
John
Kerry
Other
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % %
5/17-22/04 44 49 1 6

.

"It the candidates for president were Republican George Bush, Democrat John Kerry, and independent Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?"

       
George
Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Other
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
5/17-22/04 43 46 5 1 5

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. May 18-19, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"In the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
5/18-19/04 43 43 3 11
3/23-24/04 43 48 2 7
3/3-4/04 45 45 2 8

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. May 13-14, 2004. N=832 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4 (for all registered voters).

.

"Suppose the election for president were being held TODAY and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican; John Kerry, the Democrat; and Ralph Nader, an independent candidate. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican; Kerry, the Democrat; or Nader, the independent?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % % %
ALL 42 43 5 10
  Men 46 41 5 8
  Women 38 45 4 13
  Republicans 85 6 3 6
  Democrats 12 78 2 8
  Independents 35 42 11 12
Trend:
4/8-9/04 42 46 4 8
3/25-26/04 45 43 5 7
3/18-19/04 45 43 5 7

.

"Suppose there were only two presidential candidates on the ballot and you HAD TO CHOOSE between George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat. If the election were held TODAY, who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or Kerry, the Democrat?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
5/13-14/04 45 46 9
4/8-9/04 43 50 7
3/25-26/04 47 48 5
3/18-19/04 48 48 4
2/19-20/04 45 48 7
2/5-6/04 45 50 5
1/29-30/04 46 48 6
1/22-23/04 46 49 5
1/8-9/04 52 41 7
12/11-12/03 51 41 8
11/6-7/03 49 45 6
10/23-24/03 50 42 8
10/9-10/03 48 42 10
9/25-26/03 50 42 8
9/18-19/03 48 43 9
7/03 50 42 8

 

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. May 12-13, 2004. N=563 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4.1.

.

"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between John Kerry, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote: Kerry or Bush?"

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Not
Sure
% % %

5/12-13/04

46 51 3

2/5-6/04

50 48 2

12/30/03 & 1/1/04

54 43 3

Among all registered voters:

11/03

49 42 9

9/03

50 45 5
12/02 56 39 5

.

"Now suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between John Kerry, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican, and Ralph Nader, running as an independent. For whom would you vote: Kerry, Bush, or Nader?"

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Not
Sure
% % % %

5/12-13/04

44 49 6 1

 

Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R). May 3-6, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.2.

.

"If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, John Kerry, the Democratic candidate, and Ralph Nader, the independent candidate, for which candidate would you vote?" If undecided: "Which way do you lean as of today: toward Bush, Kerry, or Nader?"

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Unsure

.

% % % %

.

5/3-6/04 45 41 4 11

.

.

"If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, and John Kerry, the Democratic candidate, for which candidate would you vote?" If undecided: "Which way do you lean as of today: toward Bush or the Democratic candidate?"

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Unsure

.

% % %

.

5/3-6/04 46 43 11

.


 

Sacred Heart University Poll. April 26-May 1, 2004. N=885 likely voters nationwide (from a total sample of 1,002 respondents, each of whom was "18 years of age or older and one of the heads of the household").

.

General Election Trial Heat:

.

George
Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader

Unsure

% % % %

4/26 - 5/1/04

42

38

2

19

.


 

Marist College Poll. April 20-23, 2004. N=787 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?"

.

George
Bush
John
Kerry

Unsure

% % %

4/04

47

44

9

.

304

46

45

9

.

10/03

48

42

10

.

.

George
Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader

Unsure

% % % %

4/04

47

43

5

5

.


 

InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate poll conducted by the Marketing Workshop. April 12-14, 2004. N=500 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"If the presidential election were held today, would you vote for . . . ?"

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Other/
Unsure
% % % %
4/12-14/04 37 43 2 18
3/18-19/04 46 41 4 9

 

Public Interest Projects poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). April 5-8, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"Thinking again about the elections in November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry, for whom would you vote: Republican George W. Bush or Democrat John Kerry?"

       
George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Other
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % %
4/04 49 47 1 3

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. March 23-24, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"What if the Democratic ticket is Senator John Kerry for president and New York Senator Hillary Clinton for vice president versus a Republican ticket of President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney? If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Clinton
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
3/23-24/04 47 42 4 7
3/3-4/04 47 42 4 7

.

"What if the Democratic ticket is Senator John Kerry for president and Senator John Edwards for vice president versus a Republican ticket of President George W. Bush and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

.

Bush/
Giuliani
Kerry/
Edwards
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
3/23-24/04 45 44 3 8

.

"What if the Democratic ticket is Senator John Kerry for president and Senator Hillary Clinton for vice president versus a Republican ticket of President George W. Bush and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

.

Bush/
Giuliani
Kerry/
Clinton
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
3/23-24/04 47 42 4 7

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. March 18-19, 2004. N=838 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4 (for all registered voters).

.

"Suppose the election for president were being held TODAY and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican; John Kerry, the Democrat; and Ralph Nader, an independent candidate. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican; Kerry, the Democrat; or Nader, the independent?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % % %
ALL 45 43 5 7
Men 50 41 4 5
Women 42 45 6 7
18-29 years 38 48 7 7
30-49 54 37 5 4
50-64 43 45 6 6
65 & older 35 53 4 8
Republicans 88 8 1 3
Democrats 11 81 4 4
Independents 35 43 12 10

 

CBS News/New York Times Poll. March 10-14, 2004. N=984 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president, the Democrats, and George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, would you vote for Kerry and [see below] or Bush and Cheney?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Gephardt
Won't
Vote (vol.)
Depends
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
3/10-14/04 47 41 1 2 9

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). March 6-8, 2004. N=1,018 adults nationwide. MoE 3.1 (total sample).

.

"If the election for president were held today, and John Kerry and John Edwards were running as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were running as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader were running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?"

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Ralph
Nader
Depends/
None/
Other (vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % %
3/6-8/04 45 45 3 3 4

.

"If the election for president were held today, and John Kerry and Dick Gephardt were running as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were running as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader were running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?" Half sample (Form A)

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Gephardt
Ralph
Nader
Depends/
None/
Other (vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % %
3/6-8/04 46 40 5 3 6

.

"If the election for president were held today, and John Kerry and Hillary Clinton were running as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were running as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader were running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?" Half sample (Form B)

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Clinton
Ralph
Nader
Depends/
None/
Other (vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % %
3/6-8/04 47 44 4 4 2

 

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll conducted by TIPP, the polling arm of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. March 1-7, 2004. N=828 registered voters nationwide.

.

"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry, Republican George W. Bush or independent Ralph Nader?"

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Not
Sure
  % % % %
ALL 41 44 6 8
Northeast 34 48 10 8
Midwest 39 47 4 10
South 44 41 6 7
West 44 42 6 7
Men 46 38 8 7
Women 37 50 4 8
Whites 46 40 6 7
Blacks & Hispanics 21 62 7 9

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. March 3-4, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"What if the Democratic ticket is Senator John Kerry for president and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson for vice president versus a Republican ticket of President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney? If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Richardson
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
3/3-4/04 46 41 3 10

 

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. March 1-3, 2004. N=771 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5. (Data from 11/03 and earlier co-sponsored by Cook Political Report.)

.

"If the election were held today, would you definitely vote to reelect George W. Bush as president, consider voting for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else as president?"
Definitely
Bush
Consider
Someone
Else
Vote for
Someone
Else
Not
Sure
% % % %
3/1-3/04 40 16 42 2
2/2-4/04 37 18 43 2
1/5-7/04 41 24 33 2
12/15-17/03 45 21 31 3
12/1-3/03 41 20 36 3
11/18-20/03 37 25 37 1
11/4-6/03 39 24 35 2
10/21-23/03 40 24 33 3
10/7-9/03 36 26 35 3
9/16-18/03 41 22 35 2
9/2-4/03 38 24 36 2
8/19-21/03 40 25 32 3
8/5-8/03 44 21 32 3
7/22-24/03 40 23 35 2
7/8-10/03 41 26 31 2
6/17-19/03 40 26 32 2
6/3-5/03 44 22 31 3
5/20-22/03 45 23 30 2
5/6-8/03 43 22 31 4
4/15-17/03 47 24 26 3
4/1-3/03 46 20 30 4
3/18-20/03 46 19 32 3
3/4-6/03 38 22 37 3
2/18-20/03 41 26 31 2
2/4-6/03 42 22 32 4
1/21-23/03 40 25 32 3
1/7-9/03 42 25 30 3
12/17-19/02 43 26 28 3
12/3-5/02 44 24 29 3
11/19-21/02 48 24 25 3
10/28 - 11/3/02 * 46 21 30 3
10/28-31/02 42 26 28 4
10/25-27/02 43 27 26 4
10/15-17/02 43 28 27 2
10/1-3/02 45 27 25 3
9/20-22/02 48 25 24 3
9/16-19/02 46 27 24 3
9/3-5/02 43 29 24 4
8/16-18/02 41 27 29 3
8/2-4/02 41 30 27 2
7/18-21/02 42 30 25 3
7/11-14/02 42 31 24 3
6/21-23/02 49 26 22 3
6/7-9/02 49 26 23 2
5/17-19/02 48 25 24 3
5/3-6/02 48 24 25 3
4/19-21/02 50 26 21 3
4/12-14 & 19-21/02 52 24 21 3
3/14-17/02 53 22 22 3
3/1-3/02 51 24 23 2
2/1-3 & 15-17/02 55 23 18 3
1/18-21 & 2/1-3/02 56 23 18 2
1/4-6/02 53 27 19 1
11/30 - 12/2/01 56 24 16 4

.

* Among likely voters

.

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?" If "other" or "not sure": "Do you lean more toward Kerry or Bush?"

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Other/
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
1/5-7/04 54 37 3 6
10/21-23/03 53 34 5 8

 

Andres McKenna Research. Feb. 23-March 1, 2004. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote: President Bush or Senator Kerry?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Unsure
% % %
2-3/04 45 47 9
7/03 49 30 22

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 24-29, 2004. N=749 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, or John Kerry, the Democrat. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated

.

George
W.
Bush
John
Kerry
Other/
Unsure
% % %
2/24-29/04 44 48 8
2/11-16/04 47 47 6
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 52 41 7
10/03 50 42 8

 

CBS News Poll. Feb. 24-27, 2004. N=1,294 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3 (for all registered voters).

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, do you think you would probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

George
W.
Bush
Democrat Can't Say
Until
Chosen
(vol.)
None/
Won't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
2/24-27/04 43 48 5 2 2
2/12-15/04 42 47 6 0 5
1/12-15/04 43 45 7 1 4
12/21-22/03 49 40 6 1 4

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican, would you vote for [see below] or George W. Bush?"

.

George
W.
Bush
John
Edwards
Won't
Vote (vol.)
Depends
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
2/24-27/04 45 45 2 3 5
2/12-15/04 50 41 1 3 5

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 19-20, 2004. N=873 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or [see below], the Democrat?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
John
Edwards
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
2/19-20/04 46 46 8
2/5-6/04 49 44 7
1/29-30/04 49 44 7
1/22-23/04 49 46 5
1/8-9/04 54 38 8
12/18-19/03 51 40 9
12/11-12/03 51 39 10

.

"We're interested in how you would vote if an election were held TODAY with the following choices for president and vice president. If you had to choose between a Republican ticket of George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, and a Democratic ticket of John Kerry for president and John Edwards for vice president, which ticket would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?" Options rotated

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
2/19-20/04 45 49 6

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Feb. 18-19, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat [see below]?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision

.

George
W. Bush
John
Edwards
Other (vol.)/
Not Sure
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
  % % % %
2/18-19/04 46 41 11 2
2/4-5/04 50 37 11 2
1/21-22/04 51 39 9 1

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Feb. 16-17, 2004. N=568 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
John
Edwards
Neither
(vol.)
Other
(vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
2/16-17/04 44 54 1 - 1
2/6-8/04 50 46 2 - 2
1/29 - 2/1/04 48 49 2 - 1

 

University of Connecticut Poll. Feb. 12-16, 2004. N=1,121 registered voters nationwide. MoE 2.9.

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, and George W. Bush was running as the Republican candidate and John Kerry was the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Other
(vol.)

Don't
Know

% % % %
2/12-16/04 45 46 2 6

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 11-16, 2004. N=1,149 registered voters nationwide.

.

"Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were [see below]. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated.

.

George
W.
Bush
John
Kerry
Other/
Unsure
% % %
ALL 47 47 6
Men 54 41 5
Women 41 53 6
East 40 55 5
Midwest 45 51 4
South 52 42 6
West 47 46 7
Trend:
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 52 41 7
10/03 50 42 8

 

CBS News Poll. Feb. 12-15, 2004. N=1,046 registered voters nationwide.

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican, would you vote for [see below] or George W. Bush?"

.

George
W.
Bush
Howard
Dean
Won't
Vote (vol.)
Depends
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
2/12-15/04 54 37 2 1 6

 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Feb. 10-15, 2004. N=1,010 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections this year, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and the Democratic nominee for president, for whom would you vote: Republican George Bush or the Democratic nominee for president?"
Bush Democrat Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
2/10-15/04 47 49 1 3
1/13-18/04 49 45 1 5
10/03 47 47 1 5
9/03 47 45 1 6
8/03 46 42 2 10
7/03 49 43 2 7
6/03 51 40 2 7
5/03 52 40 1 6
1/03 48 41 1 10
7/02 52 37 1 10
6/01 44 44 3 9

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Feb. 6-8, 2004. N=765 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Neither
(vol.)
Other
(vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
2/6-8/04 51 46 1 - 2
1/29 - 2/1/04 50 47 2 - 1
1/9-11/04 56 42 1 - 1
Among registered voters:
12/15-16/03 56 40 2 - 2
11/03 50 47 1 - 2
9/03 46 49 2 - 3

.

George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Neither
(vol.)
Other
(vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
2/6-8/04 53 43 2 - 2
1/29 - 2/1/04 52 45 3 - -
1/9-11/04 56 41 1 - 2
1/2-5/04 59 37 2 - 2
Among registered voters:
12/15-16/03 60 37 1 - 2
12/11-14/03 52 44 2 - 2
11/03 53 44 1 - 2
9/03 49 46 2 1 2

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 5-6, 2004. N=822 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or [see below], the Democrat?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
2/5-6/04 50 44 6
1/29-30/04 52 40 8
1/22-23/04 50 45 5
1/8-9/04 51 43 6
12/18-19/03 53 40 7
12/11-12/03 49 42 9
11/6-7/03 49 45 6
10/23-24/03 49 43 8
10/9-10/03 49 40 11
9/25-26/03 52 38 10
9/18-19/03 52 38 10
9/11-12/03 53 37 10
7/03 53 38 9

.

George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
2/5-6/04 51 43 6
1/29-30/04 53 41 6
1/22-23/04 48 47 5
1/8-9/04 50 41 9
12/18-19/03 53 41 6
12/11-12/03 49 43 8
11/6-7/03 48 45 7
10/23-24/03 49 43 8
10/9-10/03 47 43 10
9/25-26/03 49 43 8
9/18-19/03 47 43 10

 

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Feb. 5-6, 2004. N=580 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4.1.

.

"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between [see below], the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote: [see below]?"

.

George
W. Bush
John
Edwards
Not
Sure
% % %

2/5-6/04

52 46 2

12/30/03 & 1/1/04

53 43 4

Among all registered voters:

11/03

52 39 9

.

George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Not
Sure
% % %

2/5-6/04

55 41 4

12/30/03 & 1/1/04

53 43 4

Among all registered voters:

11/03

49 42 9

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Feb. 4-5, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat [see below]?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision

.

George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Other (vol.)/
Not Sure
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
  % % % %
2/4-5/04 54 35 8 3
1/21-22/04 54 34 9 3
1/7-8/04 54 33 10 3
11/03 49 36 12 3
7/03 55 27 15 3

.

George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Other (vol.)/
Not Sure
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
  % % % %
2/4-5/04 53 34 10 3
1/21-22/04 51 37 11 1
1/7-8/04 52 32 14 2
11/03 49 36 13 2
9/03 46 37 7 10

.

George
W. Bush
Hillary
Clinton
Other (vol.)/
Not Sure
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
  % % % %
2/4-5/04 53 36 7 4
1/21-22/04 52 39 7 2
11/03 52 38 8 2
7/03 52 35 10 3
5/03 60 30 8 2
11/02 59 24 16 1
8/02 58 28 12 2
1/01 45 34 21 -

Earlier polling on the general election


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