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     White House 2004: General Election (p. 5)


Polls listed chronologically. All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

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CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. June 21-23, 2004. N=722 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

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"If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: John Kerry, the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward John Kerry, the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Neither
(vol.)
Other
(vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %

6/21-23/04

49 48 1 - 2

6/3-6/04

44 50 2 1 3

5/21-23/04

47 49 1 - 3

5/7-9/04

48 47 2 1 2

5/2-4/04

48 49 1 - 2

4/16-18/04

51 46 2 - 1

4/5-8/04

48 45 4 1 2

3/26-28/04

51 47 1 - 1
3/5-7/04 44 52 2 1 1
2/16-17/04 43 55 1 - 1
2/6-8/04 49 48 1 - 2
1/29 - 2/1/04 46 53 - - 1
1/9-11/04 55 43 1 - 1
Among registered voters:
11/03 52 46 1 - 1
9/03 47 48 2 1 2

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"Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican, or Nader, the independent?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican, or Nader, the independent?" Names rotated

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George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
None/
Other (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %

6/21-23/04

48 47 3 - 2

6/3-6/04

43 49 5 1 2

5/21-23/04

46 47 4 1 2

5/7-9/04

47 45 5 2 1

5/2-4/04

47 47 3 1 2

4/16-18/04

50 44 4 - 2

4/5-8/04

47 43 4 3 3

3/26-28/04

49 45 4 1 1
3/5-7/04 44 50 2 2 2

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. June 17-20, 2004. N=1,015 registered voters nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS.

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"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, or Ralph Nader, the independent?" If undecided: "Which one are you leaning toward?" Names rotated. Trend includes variation in wording.

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
None/
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
6/17-20/04 44 48 6 1 1
5/20-23/04 46 46 4 2 1
4/15-18/04 48 43 6 3 -
3/4-7/04 44 48 3 3 2

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Asked of Nader supporters and undecideds:
"
If Nader does not run or is not on the ballot, for whom would you vote: Bush or Kerry?" If undecided: "Which one are you leaning toward?" Names rotated.
 

Combined results of this question and preceding question:

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Neither
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
6/17-20/04 45 53 1 1 -
5/20-23/04 47 49 1 1 1
4/15-18/04 49 48 2 1 -

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TREND:
"
If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, or for John Kerry, the Democrat?" Names rotated

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George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Other/
Neither
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
3/4-7/04 44 53 1 1 1
2/10-11/04 43 52 3 1 1
10/03 52 43 2 1 2
Among ALL adults:
9/03 54 39 3 2 2
4/03 60 34 2 1 2

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. June 3-13, 2004. N=1,426 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

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"Now, suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY. If you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated

.

George
W.
Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Other/
Unsure
% % % %
6/3-13/04 46 42 6 6
5/3-9/04 43 46 6 5
3/22-28/04 44 43 6 7
3/17-21/04 42 49 4 5

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"Suppose there were only two major candidates for president and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated

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George
W.
Bush
John
Kerry
Other/
Unsure
% % %
6/3-13/04 48 46 6
5/3-9/04 45 50 5
3/22-28/04 46 47 7
3/17-21/04 43 52 5
2/24-29/04 44 48 8
2/11-16/04 47 47 6
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 52 41 7
10/03 50 42 8

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. June 8-9, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

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"In the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

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Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Gephardt
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
6/8-9/04 44 45 3 8
5/18-19/04 43 42 3 12

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Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Dean
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
6/8-9/04 44 45 3 8

 

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. June 7-9, 2004. N=788 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5 (total sample).

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"I'm going to read you the names of some possible running mates for John Kerry on the Democratic ticket for president this year. Please tell me which one of the following individuals you would most like to see John Kerry choose as a candidate for vice president. [See below.]" Half-sample (Form A)

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    ALL Democrats
    % %
North Carolina Senator John Edwards 36 43
Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt 19 19
Retired General Wesley Clark 18 18
Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack 4 4
Other/None of these (vol.) 6 4
Undecided 17 12

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"I'm going to read you the names of some possible running mates for John Kerry on the Democratic ticket for president this year. Please tell me which one of the following individuals you would most like to see John Kerry choose as a candidate for vice president. [See below.]" Half-sample (Form B)

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    ALL Democrats
    % %
North Carolina Senator John Edwards 34 42
New York Senator Hillary Clinton 24 31
Retired General Wesley Clark 17 13
Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt 12 8
Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack 2 3
Other/None of these (vol.) 3 1
Undecided 8 2

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"Do you think President Bush should keep Dick Cheney as his vice-presidential running mate in 2004, or do you think he should pick someone else?"

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Keep
Cheney
Someone
Else
Unsure  
% % %  
ALL 51 43 6  
  Republicans 68 28 4  

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"If the election were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, and John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president, the Democrats, and Ralph Nader, the independent, for whom would you vote?" If "other," "none," or "not sure": "Do you lean more toward [see below]?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Gephardt
Ralph
Nader
Other/
None (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
6/7-9/04 47 45 6 1 1

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Clark
Ralph
Nader
Other/
None (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
6/7-9/04 47 43 6 1 2

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Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Vilsack
Ralph
Nader
Other/
None (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
6/7-9/04 47 43 7 2 1

 

The Los Angeles Times Poll. June 5-8, 2004. N=1,230 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

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"If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, for whom would you vote: Bush, or Kerry?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.

.

George
W.
Bush
John
Kerry
Someone
Else (vol.)
Unsure
% % % %
6/5-8/04 44 51 1 4
3/27-30/04 46 49 - 5

.

"If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader running as an independent, for whom would you vote: Bush, Kerry or Nader?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.

.

George
W.
Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Someone
Else (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
6/5-8/04 42 48 4 1 5
3/27-30/04 44 47 4 - 5

 

CBS News Poll. May 20-23, 2004. N=923 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample).

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"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry for president and John McCain for vice president, and George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, would you vote for Kerry and McCain or Bush and Cheney?" Names rotated

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
McCain
Other/
Depends
(vol.)
Won't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
ALL 39 53 3 1 4
  Republicans 80 15 0 1 4
  Democrats 11 80 3 1 5
  Independents 31 57 4 2 6

 

Mother Jones poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). May 17-22, 2004. N=1,007 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

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"Thinking about the elections in November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry, for whom would you vote: George Bush or John Kerry?"

       
George
Bush
John
Kerry
Other
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % %
5/17-22/04 44 49 1 6

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"It the candidates for president were Republican George Bush, Democrat John Kerry, and independent Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?"

       
George
Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Other
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
5/17-22/04 43 46 5 1 5

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. May 18-19, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

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"In the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

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Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
5/18-19/04 43 43 3 11
3/23-24/04 43 48 2 7
3/3-4/04 45 45 2 8

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. May 13-14, 2004. N=832 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4 (for all registered voters).

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"Suppose the election for president were being held TODAY and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican; John Kerry, the Democrat; and Ralph Nader, an independent candidate. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODA