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     White House 2004: Miscellany    ► STATE POLLS are in our subscriber area. INFO


Polls listed chronologically. All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

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NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=500 likely voters nationwide.

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"As you may know, presidents are chosen not by direct popular vote, but by the electoral college system in which each state casts electoral votes based on its population. Over the past one hundred years, with the exception of the 2000 election, the winning presidential candidate has won both the popular and electoral vote. Let us suppose in this election that one candidate were to win the popular vote and another candidate were to win the electoral vote. Who would you favor serving as the next president of the United States -- the one who wins the popular vote, or the one who wins the electoral vote?"

.

Popular
Vote
Electoral
Vote
Unsure    
% % %    
10/04 50 41 9    

 

ABC News Tracking Poll. Oct. 24-27, 2004. N=1,747 likely voters nationwide. MoE 2.5. Rolling sample. Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"How confident are you that the votes for president across the country  will be accurately counted this year: very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all?"

.

Very Some-
what
Not
Too
Not
At all
Unsure
% % % % %
10/04 25 46 20 8 1

.

"And how confident are you that your own vote for president will be accurately counted this year: very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all?"

.

Very Some-
what
Not
Too
Not
At all
Unsure
% % % % %
10/04 62 29 6 2 1

.

"Imagine that in Tuesday's presidential election one candidate wins the popular vote, but another wins the majority of votes in the electoral college. If that were to happen who do you think should become president: the winner of the popular vote or the winner of the electoral college?"

.

Popular
Vote
Electoral
College
Unsure    
% % %    
10/04 54 40 6    
11/00 63 32 6    

 

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Oct. 22-24, 2004. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"How confident are you that the votes in your state will be counted accurately . . . ?"

.

Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All Unsure
% % % % %

10/22-24/04

55 33 8 3 1

.

"How likely is it that on November 3, the day after the election, there will not be a clear winner of the presidential election? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?"

.

Very Somewhat Not Too Not At All Unsure
% % % % %

10/22-24/04

24 36 22 16 2

.

"How likely is it that the results of the November 2 presidential election will be challenged in court? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?"

.

Very Somewhat Not Too Not At All Unsure
% % % % %

10/22-24/04

20 28 27 23 2

 

ABC News Poll. Oct. 13, 2004. N=566 registered voters nationwide who watched the third presidential debate. Respondents were initially interviewed Oct. 9-12. MoE 4.5 (for all registered voters). Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"Who, in your opinion, won the debate?"

.

Bush Kerry Tie    
% % %    

ALL

41 42 14    

  Democrats

5 81 11    
  Republicans 73 12 11    
  Independents 35 42 22    

.

Party ID of debate viewers:

%        

Democrats

30        
Republicans 38        
Independents 28        

 

ABC News Poll. Oct. 8, 2004. N=515 registered voters nationwide who watched the second presidential debate. Respondents were initially interviewed Oct. 5-7. MoE 4.5 (for all registered voters). Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"Who, in your opinion, won the debate?"

.

Bush Kerry Tie    
% % %    

ALL

41 44 13    

  Bush supporters

84 1 13    
  Kerry supporters 2 85 12    

.

Party ID of debate viewers:

%        

Democrats

35        
Republicans 32        
Independents 29        

 

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Oct. 6-7, 2004. N=1,024 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"Last night/Tuesday night there was a debate between the two vice-presidential candidates, John Edwards and Dick Cheney. . . . Just based on what you saw or heard, which candidate -- John Edwards or Dick Cheney -- do you think won that debate?" Names rotated

Cheney Edwards Neither
(vol.)
Both/Tie
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/6-7/04

33 28 4 9 26

.

"Did the vice-presidential debate between John Edwards and Dick Cheney make you more likely to vote for John Kerry, more likely to vote for George Bush, or did it not really have any impact on your vote one way or another?" Names rotated

.

Bush Kerry No Impact Unsure  
% % % %  

10/6-7/04

15 16 68 1  

.

"Turning now to the presidential candidates: The first of three presidential debates was held last Thursday evening between George Bush and John Kerry. . . . Regardless of how you might vote, which candidate -- George Bush or John Kerry -- do you think won last Thursday's debate, just based on what you've seen or heard?" Names rotated

.

Bush Kerry Neither
(vol.)
Both
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/6-7/04

23 59 2 3 13

.

.

"Did the presidential debate between John Kerry and George Bush make you more likely to vote for John Kerry, more likely to vote for George Bush, or did it not have any impact on your vote one way or another?" Names rotated

.

Bush Kerry No Impact Unsure  
% % % %  

10/6-7/04

14 30 55 1  

Earlier White House 2004 miscellany

 


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