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   White House 2008: General Election Trial Heats (p. 2)      See also: Candidate ratings | The '08 campaign


Polls listed chronologically.

STATE POLLS are in our subscriber area. INFO     

.

         
See also:  Trial heat summary    Daily tracking polls
 
 

Marist College Poll. Nov. 3, 2008. N=804 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"If tomorrow's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?" Results include leaners

.

McCain/
Palin
Obama/
Biden
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

11/3/08

43 52 3 2  

11/2/08

44 53 1 2  

10/29/08

43 50 3 4  

9/28-30/08

44 49 1 6  

9/22-23/08

44 49 - 7  

 

American Research Group Poll. Nov. 1-3, 2008. N=1,200 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote: McCain and Palin or Obama and Biden?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Unsure    
% % %    

11/1-3/08

45

53

2

 

 

10/25-27/08

45

50

5

 

 

10/18-20/08

45

49

6

 

 

10/11-13/08

45

50

5

 

 

10/4-6/08

45

49

6

 

 

9/27-29/08

45

49

6

 

 

9/20-22/08

46

48

6

 

 

9/13-15/08

48

45

7

 

 

9/6-8/08

46

47

7

 

 

8/30 - 9/1/08

43

49

8

 

 


 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Nov. 1-2, 2008. N=971 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3. LV = likely voters. RV = registered voters.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, or Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Unsure Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
% % % % %

11/1-2/08 LV

43

50

2

5

-

10/28-29/08 LV

44

47

2

6

1

10/20-21/08 LV

40

49

2

8

-

10/8-9/08 RV

39

46

3

11

1

9/22-23/08 RV

39

45

2

13

1

9/8-9/08 RV

45

42

2

10

2


 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R). Nov. 1-2, 2008. N=1,011 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1. LV = likely voters. RV = registered voters.

.

"If the next election for president were held today, with John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican candidates, and Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic candidates, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean at this time?" If already voted: "For whom did you vote for president: John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republican candidates, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democratic candidates, or someone else?"

.

McCain Obama Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

11/1-2/08 LV

43

51

1

2

3

10/17-20/08 LV

42

53

1

1

3

10/4-5/08 RV

43

49

1

3

4

9/19-22/08 RV

46

48

1

2

3

9/6-8/08 RV

46

47

2

2

3


 

CBS News Poll. Oct. 31-Nov. 2, 2008. N=714 effective likely voters nationwide, from a total sample of 1,051 adults. LV = likely voters. RV = registered voters.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, would you vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden or John McCain and Sarah Palin?" If unsure: "Well as of today, do you lean more toward Barack Obama and Joe Biden or more toward John McCain and Sarah Palin?"

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Won't
Vote (vol.)
Depends (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % %

10/31 - 11/2/08 LV

42 51 - - 5

10/30 - 11/1/08 LV

41 54 - - 4

10/28-31/08 LV

41 54 - - 4

.

Excludes leaners:

10/25-29/08 LV

40 51 1 0 8

10/19-22/08 LV

39 52 2 0 7

10/10-13/08 LV

39 53 1 0 7

10/3-5/08 LV

45 48 0 0 7

9/27-30/08 LV

41 50 1 0 8

9/21-24/08 LV

43 48 1 0 8

9/12-16/08 LV

44 49 1 0 6

9/1-3/08 RV

42 42 3 1 12

8/29-31/08 RV

40 48 1 2 9

 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2008. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide.

.

 

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" Results include leaners

.

McCain Obama Other
Candidates
     
% % %      

VOTE PROJECTION, with undecideds allocated:

     

10/30 - 11/2/08

44 53 4      

.

McCain Obama Nader Barr Paul Unsure
% % % % % %

10/30 - 11/2/08

44 51 2 1 - 3

10/21-23/08

43 52 2 1 0 1

10/15-19/08

44 49 3 2 0 2

10/8-12/08

40 50 2 3 0 5

10/1-5/08

45 48 3 2 0 2

9/28-30/08

45 49 2 1 0 2

9/22-24/08

44 47 2 2 0 4

 

Ipsos/McClatchy Poll. Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2008. N=760 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.6. LV = likely voters. RV = registered voters.

.

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, Ralph Nader for president and Matt Gonzalez for vice president, the independents, or Bob Barr for president and Wayne Allyn Root for vice president, the Libertarians, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Do you lean more toward [see below]?" Respondents who had already voted were asked: "For whom did you vote for president?"

.

McCain Obama Nader Barr None (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % %

VOTE PROJECTION, with undecideds allocated:

.

10/30 - 11/2/08 LV

46

53

1

0

 

.

10/30 - 11/2/08 LV

42

50

1

0

7

10/23-27/08 LV

42

48

1

1

8

10/16-20/08 LV

42

50

1

0

7

10/9-13/08 RV

39

48

2

1

10

10/2-6/08 RV

40

47

3

1

9

9/26-29/08 RV

42

46

2

1

9

9/18-22/08 RV

43

44

2

2

9

9/11-15/08 RV

45

45

2

1

7

9/5-9/08 RV

46

45

2

1

6

.

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, or John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote?" If neither or unsure: "Do you lean more toward [see below]?"

.

McCain Obama Neither (vol.)/
Unsure

.

% % %

.

10/30 - 11/2/08 LV

43

51

6

.

10/23-27/08 LV

45

50

5

.

10/9-13/08 RV

42

51

7

.

9/26-29/08 RV

45

48

7

.


 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2008. N=714 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.5. LV = likely voters. RV = registered voters.

.

 

"If Barack Obama and Joe Biden were the Democratic Party's candidates and John McCain and Sarah Palin were the Republican Party's candidates, who would you be more likely to vote for: Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, or John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Options rotated

               
McCain Obama Neither
(vol.)
Other
(vol.)
Unsure  
% % % % %  
10/30 - 11/1/08 LV 46 53 1 - -  
10/17-19/08 LV 46 51 1 - -  
10/3-5/08 LV 45 53 1 - 1  
9/19-21/08 LV 47 51 2 - 1  
9/5-7/08 RV 48 48 3 1 -  
8/29-31/08 RV 48 49 2 - -  

.

 

"Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, John McCain as the Republican candidate, Bob Barr as the Libertarian party candidate, Cynthia McKinney as the Green Party candidate, and Ralph Nader, who is unaffiliated with a national party, who would you be more likely to vote for?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" 7/08: ". . . and Ralph Nader as an independent candidate . . . ?"

               
McCain Obama Nader Barr McKinney Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % % %
10/30 - 11/1/08 LV 43 51 3 1 - 1
10/17-19/08 LV 43 49 3 2 - 1
10/3-5/08 LV 42 53 2 2 - -
9/19-21/08 LV 45 48 4 1 1 1
9/5-7/08 RV 45 45 3 3 1 2
8/29-31/08 RV 44 46 4 2 1 1
8/23-24/08 RV 44 44 4 2 1 5
7/27-29/08 RV 42 46 6 3 1 1

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2008. N=2,587 likely voters nationwide. MoE 2.5.

.

"If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, for the Libertarian ticket of Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root, or for the independent ticket of Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Barr and/or Nader included only for respondents in states where those candidates are on the ballot.

.

McCain Obama Nader Barr Other/Unsure
% % % % %

VOTE PROJECTION, with undecideds allocated:

 

10/29 - 11/1/08

46 52 1 1  

.

10/29 - 11/1/08

42 49 1 1 7

10/23-26/08

38 53 2 - 7

 

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Oct. 25-29, 2008. N=1,005 effective likely voters nationwide (from a total sample of 1,439 adults).

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice-president, the Democrats, John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice-president, the Republicans, Bob Barr for president and Wayne Allyn Root for vice-president, the Libertarians, and Ralph Nader for president and Matt Gonzalez for vice president, would you vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden, John McCain and Sarah Palin, Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root, or Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez?"

.

McCain Obama Barr Nader Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % %

10/25-29/08

39 52 1 2 6

10/10-13/08

39 51 1 3 6

9/12-16/08

43 49 1 2 5

 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by FD. Oct. 23-26, 2008. N=804 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"Now thinking about the upcoming November general election for president: Suppose the presidential election were being held today, and it included John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican candidates, and Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic candidates. Would you vote for McCain and Palin, the Republicans, or Obama and Biden, the Democrats?" If unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Unsure Refused  
% % % %  

10/23-26/08

42 49 5 4  

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 22-23, 2008. N=882 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4. LV = likely voters. RV = registered voters.

.

"If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you be more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, or the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin?" If unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama and Biden, the Democrats, or McCain and Palin, the Republicans?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

10/22-23/08 LV

41 53 1 5  

10/8-9/08 RV

41 52 1 6  

9/10-11/08 RV

46 46 - 8  

 

Big Ten Battleground Poll co-directed by Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Oct. 19-22, 2008. N=1,014 (weighted) registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, and John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: ". . . which way do you lean?"

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

10/19-22/08

43 52 5    

9/14-17/08

45 46 9    

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R). Oct. 17-20, 2008. N=1,159 registered voters nationwide. MoE 2.9.

.

"If the next election for president were held today, with John McCain as the Republican candidate, Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate, Bob Barr as the Libertarian candidate, and Ralph Nader as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?"

.

McCain Obama Barr Nader Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % %

10/17-20/08

39

50

2

3

6

9/19-22/08

42

44

2

5

7


 

AP-GfK Poll conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media. Oct. 16-20, 2008. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"In the election for president in November, if the candidates are Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root, the Libertarians, or Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzales, the independents, for whom will you vote?" If none or unsure: "Do you lean more toward [see below]?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Barr Nader Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % %

10/16-20/08

43

44

1

1

12

9/27-30/08

41

48

1

2

10

9/5-10/08

48

44

1

1

7


 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey. Oct. 16-19, 2008. N=2,382 likely voters nationwide. MoE 2.5.

.

"If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin OR for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Other/Unsure    
% % %    

10/16-19/08

39 53 8    

10/9-12/08

42 49 9    

9/27-29/08

43 49 8    

9/9-14/08

46 46 8    

 

Franklin & Marshall College/Hearst-Argyle Television. Oct. 13-19, 2008. Likely voters nationwide (from a sample of 1,365 registered voters). MoE 3.5. LV - likely voters. RV = registered voters.

.

"If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, and Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, would you vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more to John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, or are you leaning toward some other candidate?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Other
Candidate
Unsure  
% % % %  

10/13-19/08 LV

45 50  

9/15-21/08 RV

45 43 3 10  

 

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. Oct. 10-13, 2008. N=1,030 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3. LV = likely voters. RV = registered voters.

.

 

"If the November 2008 general election for president were being held today and the choices were Barack Obama and Joe Biden on the Democrat ticket, and John McCain and Sarah Palin on the Republican ticket, for which ticket would you vote for: Obama and Biden or McCain and Palin, or would you vote for a ticket from some other party?" Options rotated. Results include leaners

.

 
McCain Obama Other Unsure    
% % % %    

10/10-13/08 LV

41 50 2 7    

9/19-22/08 LV

45 49 1 5    

.

 

"What if the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, John McCain, the Republican, independent Ralph Nader, Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, and Cynthia McKinney, the Green Party candidate, for whom would you vote: Obama, McCain, Nader, Barr, or McKinney?" Options rotated. Results include leaners

.

 
McCain Obama Nader Barr McKinney Other/
Unsure
% % % % % %

10/10-13/08 LV

39 48 3 1 1 9

9/19-22/08 LV

42 48 2 1 1 6

8/15-18/08 RV

41 42 4 1 - 12

 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 10-12, 2008. Likely voters nationwide.

.

"Suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic candidates and John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, or John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward Obama and Biden, the Democrats, or McCain and Palin, the Republicans?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %

.

Among likely voters -- expanded model (current voting intention only):
N=1,030, MoE 3

.

10/10-12/08

45

52

-

1

2

9/5-7/08

51

46

1

1

2

.

Among likely voters -- traditional model (current voting intention and past voting behavior):
N=825, MoE 4

.

10/10-12/08

46

50

-

1

2

9/5-7/08

54

44

-

1

1


 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Oct. 8-11, 2008. N=766 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, and John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, for whom would you vote?" If already voted: "For whom did you vote?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
10/8-11/08

43

53

1

1

2

9/27-29/08

46

50

-

2

2

9/19-22/08

43

52

-

1

3

9/5-7/08

49

47

1

1

3


 

Time Poll conducted by Abt SRBI. Oct. 3-6, 2008. N=1,053 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, and John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, and you had to choose, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Do you lean more toward Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, or more toward John McCain and Sara Palin, the Republicans?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Other/
Neither (vol.)
Unsure  
% % % %  

10/3-6/08

44 50 2 4  

9/26-29/08

43 50 2 5  

 

Gallup Poll. Oct. 3-5, 2008. N=926 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of six candidates for president who may appear on the ballot in a significant number of states this November. Supposing that all of these candidates were on the ballot in your state, which one would you be most likely to vote for: Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, John McCain, the Republican candidate, Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party candidate, Cynthia McKinney, the Green Party candidate, Chuck Baldwin, the Constitution Party candidate, or will you be voting for someone else?" If unsure: "As of today, which one of these candidates do you lean toward?" Options rotated

.

10/3-5/08 9/8-11/08      
% %      

Obama

48

47

 

 

 

McCain

42

44

 

 

 

Nader

2

4

 

 

 

Barr

1

1

 

 

 

McKinney

1

1

 

 

 

Baldwin

-

-

 

 

 

Someone else

2

1

 

 

 

Won't vote (vol.)

3

1

 

 

 

Unsure

1

1

 

 

 


 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Sept. 27-29, 2008. N=916 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, and John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
9/27-29/08

46

50

-

2

2

9/19-22/08

43

52

-

1

3

9/5-7/08

49

47

1

1

3

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, Bob Barr and Wayne Allen Root, the Libertarian Party candidates, and Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzales, as independent candidates, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

.

McCain Obama Barr Nader Unsure
% % % % %
9/27-29/08

45

48

2

3

2

9/19-22/08

43

51

1

2

3


 

Quinnipiac University Poll. Sept. 11-16, 2008. N=987 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1. RV = registered voters.

.

"If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain?" 5/08 and earlier excludes leaners

.

McCain Obama Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

9/11-16/08

45

49

1

-

5

8/12-17/08

42

47

2

-

9

7/8-13/08

41

50

2

-

7

.

5/8-12/08 RV

40

47

2

4

8

10/23-29/07 RV

43

43

3

3

8

8/7-13/07 RV

39

43

3

4

11

6/5-11/07 RV

41

43

3

4

10

4/25 - 5/1/07 RV

42

42

2

2

12

2/13-19/07 RV

43

43

1

4

10


 

ABC News/USA Today/Columbia University poll. Sept. 11-14, 2008. N=1,941 adults nationwide, including oversamples of blacks and Hispanics. Results below are among registered voters.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, and John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated. Results include leaners.

.

McCain Obama Other/
Neither (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

ALL

45 47 3 1 4

Blacks

4 92 1 - 3

Whites

56 36 3 1 3

Hispanics

33 57 1 - 7

 

Reuters/Zogby Poll. Sept. 11-13, 2008. N=1,008 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

General Election Trial Heats:

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  
9/11-13/08

45

47

1

6

 
8/14-16/08

46

41

3

10

 
7/9-13/08

40

47

3

10

 
6/12-14/08

42

47

3

9

 

5/15-18/08

40

48

 

 

 

4/10-12/08

45

45

 

 

 

3/13-14/08

46

40

4

11

 

2/13-16/08

40

47

4

8

 

1/10-11/08

45

43

 

 

 

12/12-14/07

43

47

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

42

45

5

8

 
5/17-20/07

43

46

3

8

 
2/22-24/07

40

44

3

13

 

.

McCain Obama Nader Barr Other/Unsure
% % % % %
9/11-13/08

45

45

2

1

7

8/14-16/08

44

39

2

3

13

7/9-13/08

36

46

3

3

12

6/12-14/08

40

45

3

3

10

5/15-18/08

37

47

4

3

10

4/10-12/08

42

44

3

2

9


 

George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). Sept. 7-11, 2008. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"If the election for president were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you probably vote?" Open-ended

.

McCain Obama Other Unsure  
% % % %  

9/7-11/08

46 40 1 13  

8/10-14/08

40 39 2 19  

.

"Now, as you think about the election for president and vice president that will be held in November -- If the election for president and vice president were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote: John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, Bob Barr and Wayne Allen Root, the Libertarians, OR Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez, the independents?" If unsure: "And which candidate do you lean toward slightly?" Republican and Democratic options rotated

.

McCain Obama Barr Nader Unsure
% % % % %

9/7-11/08

48 44 1 1 5

 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Sept. 8-10, 2008. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide.

.

"Now thinking about the presidential election in November. If the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, and independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?"

.

McCain Obama Barr Nader Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % %

9/8-10/08

48 46 1 2 3

9/1-3/08

44 49 2 1 3

7/21-24/08

43 49 3 1 3

 

Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Sept. 2-7, 2008. N=868 registered voters. MoE 3.2.

.

"If the 2008 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain?"

.

McCain Obama Unsure    
% % %    

9/2-7/08

40 45 15    

8/4-9/08

38 43 19    

7/7-11/08

37 40 22    

6/2-8/08

40 43 17    

5/12-18/08

37 48 15    

4/1-6/08

44 44 12    

 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by FD. Aug. 29-31, 2008. N=805 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"Now thinking about the next election for president in 2008, if the election for U.S. president were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?" Options rotated

.

Republican
Candidate
Democratic
Candidate
Neither (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  
8/29-31/08 37 47 4 12  
8/18-24/08 37 44 7 12  
6/5-8/08 38 44 5 12  

4/30 - 5/3/08

35 49 4 12  

3/28-31/08

38 46 5 10  

2/14-17/08

35 46 5 14  

1/10-12/08

33 48 4 15  
12/10-14/07 33 46 5 17  
7/19-22/07 27 51 5 17  
5/16-20/07 27 46 8 19  
4/26-30/07 28 47 8 18  
3/29 - 4/1/07 29 47 8 16  
2/21-24/07 28 46 10 16  
1/11-14/07 26 44 7 22  
11/8-12/06 27 40 7 26  

.

"Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Unsure    
% % %    
8/29-31/08 39 48 12    
8/18-24/08 40 44 16    
6/5-8/08 42 44 14    

4/30 - 5/3/08

43 47 10    

3/28-31/08

46 44 10    

2/14-17/08

40 48 12    

1/10-12/08

42 43 14    
5/16-20/07 39 42 19    
4/26-30/07 37 48 15    
1/11-14/07 43 38 20    
11/8-12/06 39 35 26    

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Aug. 23-24, 2008. N=909 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

 

"If Barack Obama and Joe Biden were the Democratic Party's candidates and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, or John McCain and his running mate, the Republicans?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Options rotated

               
McCain Obama Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % % %  
8/23-24/08 47 47 4 1 1  

.

 

"Now suppose that Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate. If the ballot in your state only included the Democratic and Republican candidates, who would you be more likely to vote for?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Options rotated

               
McCain Clinton Neither (vol.) Unsure    
% % % %    
8/23-24/08 46 49 4 1    

 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Aug. 21-23, 2008. N=765 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4. RV = registered voters

.

"Suppose the election were being held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: Barack Obama, the Democrat or John McCain, the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward Obama, the Democrat or McCain, the Republican?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %

8/21-23/08

45

48

1

3

3

7/25-27/08

49

45

1

1

4

6/15-19/08

44

50

1

2

3

5/30 - 6/1/08

44

49

1

4

2

5/1-3/08

48

47

1

3

1

4/18-20/08

44

49

1

3

3

3/14-16/08

47

49

1

1

2

2/21-24/08

48

47

1

2

2

2/8-10/08

46

50

-

2

1

1/10-13/08

50

45

1

2

2

11/11-14/07 RV

44

47

-

6

4

6/11-14/07 RV

46

48

-

3

2

2/9-11/07 RV

48

48

-

2

2


 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Aug. 19-22, 2008. Likely voters nationwide (from a sample of 916 registered voters). Fieldwork by TNS. RV = registered voters. LV = likely voters.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

.

McCain Obama Other/
Neither (vol.)
Won't Vote
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
8/19-22/08 LV

45

49

2

0

4

7/10-13/08 LV

46

49

3

0

2

6/12-15/08 LV

48

47

3

0

2

5/8-11/08 Adults

44

51

3

1

1

4/10-13/08 RV

44

49

3

3

2

2/28 - 3/2/08 RV

40

53

2

1

3

1/30 - 2/1/08 RV

48

47

2

1

2

1/16-19/07 Adults

45

47

3

1

3

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, John McCain, the Republican, Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party candidate, and Ralph Nader, as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

.

McCain Obama Nader Barr None/Other (vol.)/Unsure
% % % % %
8/19-22/08 LV

42

48

3

3

4

7/10-13/08 LV

43

49

4

2

3


 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Aug. 19-20, 2008. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3. LV = likely voters

     

"If the 2008 presidential election were held today, would you vote for [see below]?" Names rotated

     
McCain Obama Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % %

8/19-20/08

39

42

19

7/22-23/08

40

41

19

6/17-18/08

41

45

14

4/28-29/08

46

43

11

3/18-19/08

44

43

13

2/19-20/08

43

47

10

1/30-31/08

43

44

13

12/18-19/07

44

40

17

9/25-26/07

38

40

22

7/17-18/07

37

47

16

12/5-6/06

49

30

21

10/24-25/06 LV

41

38

21

     
McCain Clinton Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % %

8/19-20/08

43

46

12

4/28-29/08

44

45

11

3/18-19/08

43

46

11

2/19-20/08

47

44

9

1/30-31/08

45

44

10

12/18-19/07

47

42

12

11/13-14/07

45

46

9

10/9-10/07

44

47

9

9/25-26/07

39

46

15

7/17-18/07

42

45

12

6/5-6/07

43

43

14

3/27-28/07

47

43

9

12/5-6/06

48

40

12

10/24-25/06 LV

45

39

15

8/29-30/06

47

39

13

5/16-18/06

46

42

13

3/14-15/06

50

39

11

2/7-8/06

51

38

11

9/27-28/05

49

38

12

11/16-17/04

53

37

10


 

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Aug. 15-19, 2008. N=869 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama or John McCain?"

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

8/15-19/08

42 45 13    

7/31 - 8/5/08

39 45 16    

7/7-14/08

39 45 16    

5/30 - 6/3/08

42 48 10    

5/1-3/08

40 51 9    

4/25-29/08

45 45 10    

3/28 - 4/2/08

42 47 11    

3/15-18/08

43 48 9    

2/20-24/08

38 50 12    

 

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. Aug. 15-18, 2008. N=1,248 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3 (for all registered voters).

.

 

"If the November 2008 general election for president were being held today and the choices were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, for whom would you vote: Obama or McCain, or would you vote for a candidate from some other party?" Names rotated. Results include leaners.

.

 
McCain Obama Other Unsure    
% % % %    

8/15-18/08

43 45 2 10    

6/19-23/08

37 49 4 10    

5/1-8/08

40 46 5 9    

2/21-25/08

44 42 5 9    

1/18-22/08

42 41 5 12    

10/19-22/07

36 44 7 13    

6/7-10/07

35 47 10 8    

4/5-9/07

40 48 5 7    

.

 

"Would you describe yourself as enthusiastic about the candidacy of Barack Obama, or not?" Asked of Obama supporters

.

 
Enthusiastic Not
Enthusiastic
Unsure      
% % %      

8/15-18/08

78 20 2      

.

 

"Would you describe yourself as enthusiastic about the candidacy of John McCain, or not?" Asked of McCain supporters

.

 
Enthusiastic Not
Enthusiastic
Unsure      
% % %      

8/15-18/08

61 38 1      

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R). Aug. 15-18, 2008. N=1,005 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2008 presidential election -- that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?"

.

Democrat Republican Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

8/15-18/08

46 37 6 11  

7/18-21/08

48 36 4 12  

6/6-9/08

51 35 4 10  

4/25-28/08

51 33 4 12  

3/7-10/08

50 37 4 9  

11/1-5/07

49 39 2 11  

9/7-10/07

47 38 4 11  

6/8-11/07 Adults

52 31 5 12  

4/20-23/07 Adults

49 31 6 14  

.

"If the next election for president were held today, and John McCain were the Republican candidate and Barack Obama were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"

.

McCain Obama Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

8/15-18/08

42 45 1 4 8

7/18-21/08

41 47 2 4 6

6/6-9/08

41 47 2 4 6

4/25-28/08

43 46 1 5 5

3/24-25/08

42 44 3 4 7

3/7-10/08

44 47 1 3 5

1/20-22/08

43 41 4 5 7

4/20-23/07 Adults

39

45

1

5

10

12/8-11/06

43

38

3

6

10

.

"If the next election for president were held today, and John McCain were the Republican candidate, Barack Obama were the Democratic candidate, Bob Barr were the Libertarian candidate, and Ralph Nader were an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?"

.

McCain Obama Nader Barr Depends/Other (vol.)/Unsure
% % % % %

8/15-18/08

39 44 4 3 10

7/18-21/08

35 48 5 2 10

.

"If the next election for president were held today, and John McCain were the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"

.

McCain Clinton Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

8/15-18/08

43 49 1 3 4

6/6-9/08

40 49 2 4 5

4/25-28/08

44 45 1 5 5

3/24-25/08

46 44 1 4 5

3/7-10/08

45 47 1 3 4

1/20-22/08

47 43 1 3 6

11/1-5/07

45 46 1 4 4

12/8-11/06

47

43

1

5

4

10/28-30/06

45

36

3

8

8

4/21-24/06

46

37

3

8

6

11/4-7/05

44

42

1

6

7


 

Quinnipiac University Poll. Aug. 12-17, 2008. N=1,547 likely voters nationwide. MoE 2.5.

.

"Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2008 presidential election -- that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?"

.

Democrat Republican Unsure    
% % %    

8/12-17/08

46

34

20

   

 

George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). Aug. 10-14, 2008. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"Now, as you think about the election for president that will held in November -- If the election for president were held today and you had to make a choice between these two candidates, for whom would you vote: John McCain, the Republican, OR Barack Obama, the Democrat?" If unsure: "And which candidate do you lean toward slightly?" Names rotated

.

McCain Obama Unsure    
% % %    

8/10-14/08

47 46 7    

5/11-14/08

47 49 5    

1/8-11/07

51 39 10    

 

Gallup Poll. Aug. 7-10, 2008. N=903 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"Now, thinking about the upcoming presidential election: Which one of the candidates running for president do you plan to vote for in November?" If unsure: "Are you currently leaning toward voting for one of the candidates for president in November?" If yes: "Who is that?" Open-ended

.

%        

Barack Obama

45        

John McCain

38        

Bob Barr

1        

Ralph Nader

1        

Hillary Clinton

1        

Other

1        

None

5        

Won't vote

2        

Unsure

6        

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey. July 31-Aug. 10, 2008. N=2,414 registered voters nationwide. MoE 2.5.

.

"Now, suppose the 2008 presidential election were being held TODAY. If you had to choose between [see below], who would you vote for?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

7/31 - 8/10/08

43 46 11    

7/23-27/08

42 47 11    

6/18-29/08

40 48 12    

5/21-25/08

44 47 9    

4/23-27/08

44 50 6    

3/19-22/08

43 49 8    

2/20-24/08

43 50 7    

 

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. July 31-Aug. 4, 2008. N=833 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.4.

       

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" If neither or unsure: "Do you lean more toward [see below]?"

       
McCain Obama Nader Barr None (vol.) Unsure
% % % % % %

7/31 - 8/4/08

41

47

3

2

5

3


 

Time Poll conducted by Abt SRBI. July 31-Aug. 4, 2008. N=808 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3. RV = registered voters

.

"If the candidates in the November presidential election were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, and you had to choose, for which of these candidates would you vote?" If unsure: "Do you lean more toward Barack Obama, the Democrat, or more toward John McCain, the Republican?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %

7/31 - 8/4/08

41 46 3 - 10

6/18-25/08

43 47 2 - 8

2/1-4/08

41 48 2 3 6

4/5-9/07 RV

42 47 1 4 7

3/23-26/07 RV

45 43 1 3 8

3/9-12/07 RV

41 44 1 3 10

2/23-26/07 RV

42 46 1 4 7

1/22-23/07 RV

49 42 - 3 5

.

"And what if the election were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, John McCain, the Republican, Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, and Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Do you lean more toward Barack Obama, the Democrat, or more toward John McCain, the Republican, Bob Barr, the Libertarian, or Ralph Nader, an independent?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Nader Barr Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % %

7/31 - 8/4/08

41 44 3 3 10

 

Associated TV/Zogby International poll. July 31-Aug. 1, 2008. N=1,011 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

       

General Election Trial Heat:

       
McCain Obama Nader Barr Other/
Unsure
% % % % %

7/31 - 8/1/08

42

41

2

2

13


 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. July 27-29, 2008. N=914 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: Obama, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
7/27-29/08 44 51 4 1 -
6/26-29/08 45 50 4 - 1
6/4-5/08 46 49 4 - 1
4/28-30/08 45 49 3 - 4
3/14-16/08 46 47 5 1 1
2/1-3/08 44 52 3 1 1
1/9-10/08 48 49 3 - -
12/6-9/07 48 48 3 - 1
6/22-24/07 44 48 5 - 3

 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). July 21-24, 2008. N=1,004 likely voters nationwide.

.

"Thinking about the election for president in November, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?"

.

Republican
Candidate
Democratic
Candidate
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

7/21-24/08

43 50 3 4  

6/22-25/08

43 50 2 5  

5/13-15/08

40 54 1 5  

10/21-23/07

40 53 1 6  

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. July 22-23, 2008. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3. LV = likely voters

     

"If the 2008 presidential election were held today, would you vote for [see below]?" Names rotated

     
McCain Obama Nader (I) Barr (L) Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % %

7/22-23/08

37

40

2

-

20

6/17-18/08

39

42

4

2

14

     

"Let's say the Democratic ticket is Barack Obama for president and Hillary Clinton on the ticket with him as vice president, and the Republican ticket is John McCain for president and Mitt Romney on the ticket with him as vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote?" Options rotated

     
McCain/
Romney
Obama/
Clinton
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % %

7/22-23/08

39

48

3

10

6/17-18/08

41

48

4

6

4/28-29/08

41

47

4

7


 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. July 9-10, 2008. N=1,037 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.6.

.

"Suppose the presidential election were being held TODAY and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican. Who would you be more likely to vote for?" If "other" or "unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

7/9-10/08

41 44 15    

6/18-19/08

36 51 13    

5/21-22/08

46 46 8    

4/24-25/08

44 47 9    

4/16-17/08

44 48 8    

3/5-6/08

45 46 9    

6/20-21/07

41 51 8    

5/2-3/07

39 52 9    

2/28 - 3/1/07

43 45 12    

1/24-25/07

42 48 10    

1/17-18/07

44 46 10    

12/6-7/06

45 43 12    

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. June 26-29, 2008. N=906 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, John McCain as the Republican candidate, Bob Barr as the Libertarian Party candidate, and Ralph Nader as an independent candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Options rotated

.

McCain Obama Nader Barr None (vol.)
% % % % %
6/26-29/08 43 46 6 3 3
6/4-5/08 43 47 6 2 1

 

McLaughlin & Associates (R). June 26-29, 2008. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"If the election for president were held today, and the candidates were John McCain, the Republican candidate, and Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?" Results include leaners

.

McCain Obama Unsure    
% % %    
6/26-29/08 38 46 16    

 

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008. N=1,115 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3 (for all registered voters).

.

"If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, John McCain, the Republican, Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate and Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, for whom would you vote: Obama, McCain, Nader or Barr?" Names rotated. Results include leaners.

.

McCain Obama Nader Barr Other/
Unsure
% % % % %

6/19-23/08

33 48 4 3 12

.

"Would you describe yourself as enthusiastic about the candidacy of Barack Obama, or not?" Asked of Obama supporters in 4-way trial heat

.

Enthusiastic Not
Enthusiastic
Unsure    
% % %    

6/19-23/08

81 17 2    

.

"Would you describe yourself as enthusiastic about the candidacy of John McCain, or not?" Asked of McCain supporters in 4-way trial heat

.

Enthusiastic Not
Enthusiastic
Unsure    
% % %    

6/19-23/08

45 51 4    

 

Franklin & Marshall College/Hearst-Argyle Television poll. June 16-22, 2008. N=1,501 registered voters nationwide. MoE 2.5.

.

"If the November general election for president was being held today and the candidates were John McCain the Republican and Barack Obama the Democrat, would you vote for John McCain, Barack Obama, some other candidate, OR aren't you sure how you would vote?" Names rotated

.

McCain Obama Other Unsure  
% % % %  

6/16-22/08

36 42 7 15  

 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. June 12-15, 2008. N=880 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.3 (for all registered voters).

.

"I know the election in November is a long way off, but if Illinois Senator Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for: Barack Obama, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican?" If neither/unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward Obama, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican?" Names rotated

.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  
ALL reg. voters 40 44 1 15  
Republicans 81 8 1 10  
Independents 36 41 1 22  
Democrats 11 78 1 10  

.

5/29-31/08 43 44 3 10  
4/17-20/08 44 45 2 9  
3/6-9/08 45 43 2 11  
2/28 - 3/2/08 38 47 3 12  
1/31 - 2/2/08 43 45 2 9  

 

Ipsos Public Affairs poll. June 5-11, 2008. N=467 likely voters nationwide. 4/23-27/08 and earlier: Associated Press/Ipsos Poll. LV = likely voters.

     

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" If neither or unsure: "Well, do you lean more toward [see below]?" Names rotated

     
McCain Obama Neither (vol.) Unsure
% % % %

6/5-11/08 LV

43

50

5

1

4/30 - 5/4/08 Adults

42

46

9

3

4/23-27/08 Adults

44

46

8

2

4/7-9/08 Adults

45

45

7

3

2/22-24/08 Adults

41

51

6

2

2/7-10/08 Adults

42

48

8

2


 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R). June 6-9, 2008. N=1,000 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

.

"If the next election for president were held today, and John McCain were the Republican candidate with Mitt Romney as his running mate, and Barack Obama were the Democratic candidate with Hillary Clinton as his running mate, for whom would you vote?"

.

McCain/
Romney
Obama/
Clinton
Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

6/6-9/08

42 51 1 2 4

 

Earlier polling on the general election


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