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       Election 2000

 


A snapshot of election trends:
   Exit poll | Final trial heats | Tracking poll trend lines | Favorability trend lines

Election polls in depth:
   POST-ELECTION -- THE LONG COUNT
   POST-ELECTION -- GRADING THE CAMPAIGN
   WHITE HOUSE 2000 -- TRIAL HEATS, ETC.
  
CONGRESS 2000

 

EXIT POLL
THE LOS ANGELES TIMES POLL. Based on interviews with 8,132 voters as they exited 140 polling places across the nation on Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2000. (There was an oversample of Californian voters.) Figures reflect preliminary results.

.

%
of all
voters
Voted
for
GORE
Voted
for
BUSH
Voted
for
NADER
% % %
100 ALL 49 48 3
48 Men 43 54 3
52 Women 55 43 2
15 18 to 29 years old 54 41 5
34 30 to 44 46 51 3
37 45 to 64 51 47 2
14 65 & older 46 52 2
80 White 43 54 3
9 Black 90 9 1
7 Latino 61 38 1
2 Asian 62 37 1
10 Under $20,000 in annual family income 63 33 4
25 $20,000 to $39,999 51 45 4
23 $40,000 to $59,999 47 51 2
15 $60,000 to $74,999 48 49 3
27 $75,000 or more 46 52 2
52 Protestant 40 58 2
28 Catholic 53 46 1
4 Jewish 77 22 1
24 East 58 37 5
25 Midwest 47 50 3
30 South 41 58 1

21

West 52 44 4

.

ALL
Voters
GORE
Voters
BUSH
Voters
% % %
"What did you like most about your choice for president?..." Up to two responses accepted.
"He has the experience and intellect to be president" 33 51 16
"He thinks like me on the issues" 18 14 22
"He has strong leadership qualities" 18 15 23
"He shares my values" 17 10 24
"He cares about people like me" 16 20 12
"He has honesty and integrity" 15 6 23
"He understands average Americans’ problems" 13 15 9
"An overall good opinion of my candidate" 12 10 15
"He has a clear vision of the future" 10 10 10
"He is personally likeable" 5 4 7
None of the above 6 7 5

.

"Which issues, if any, were most important to you in deciding how you would vote for president today?..." Up to two responses accepted.
"Moral/Ethical values" 35 17 55
"Jobs/The economy" 26 36 16
"Education" 25 31 20
"Social Security" 21 25 16
"Taxes" 16 9 25
"Abortion" 14 12 17
"The environment" 10 14 2
"Health care" 8 11 5
"Medicare/Prescription drugs" 8 10 6
"Budget surplus" 6 6 6
"Foreign affairs" 5 5 5
None of the above 4 3 4

.

"Which of these things, if any, had a major influence on your vote for president today?..."   Up to three responses accepted.
"Gore will continue the policies of Clinton" 40 50 31
"Bush's record in Texas" 30 26 36
"Confidence in my candidate to deal wisely with international crises" 26 31 22
"Supreme Court appointments" 23 26 20
"Candidate’s position on gun control" 17 16 19
"Disapproval of Clinton’s personal behavior" 15 3 30
"Other candidate is too liberal" 14 3 27
"The broadcast debates" 11 11 10
"Other candidate is too conservative" 10 16 3
"Negative campaigning by the candidates" 8 6 8
"Candidate’s proposal to reduce dependency on foreign oil" 6 5 7
None of the above 8 8 6

.

.

FINAL PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEATS [Details]
BUSH
%
GORE
%
NADER
%
BUCH-
ANAN
%
BUSH
minus
GORE
CBS ^ 11/6 44 45 4 1 - 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP #@ 11/6 48 46 4 1 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 11/6 47 45 4 1 2
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # @ 11/6 47.9 46.0 3.7 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # @ 11/6 46 48 5 1 - 2
VOTER.COM ^ # @ 11/6 50.0 45.0 3.5 5
VOTER.COM ^ # 11/6 46 41 4 0 5
ABC # * 11/5 48 45 3 1 3
HARRIS ^ @ 11/5 47 47 5 - 0
HOTLINE ^ 11/5 45 42 4 1 3
ICR ^ 11/5 46 44 7 2 2
NBC/WALL ST. JOURNAL 11/5 47 44 3 2 3
PEW @ 11/5 49 47 4 - 2
PEW 11/5 45 43 4 - 2
WASHINGTON POST * 11/5 48 45 3 1 3
FOX/OPINION DYNAMICS ^ 11/2 43 43 3 1 0
MARIST COLLEGE 11/2 49 44 2 1 5
NEWSWEEK 11/2 45 43 5 - 2

.

Complete trend from early August.

.

Surveys of likely voters. Questions include running mates, except where noted.
Date shown is last day of interviewing.
Respondents who lean to a candidate are included, where available.
IBD/CSM/TIPP = Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence.
@ Vote projection, with undecideds allocated.
^ Exc
ludes running mates.
# Tracking poll.

* ABC News and The Washington Post shared data collection then independently applied their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates.

.

.

TRIAL HEATS Based on multi-candidate question. [Details]
ABC NEWS
TRIAL HEATS Based on multi-candidate question. [Details]
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP. Includes final vote projection.

.

.

TRIAL HEATS Based on multi-candidate question. [Details]
REUTERS/MSNBC/ZOGBY. Includes final vote projection.
TRIAL HEATS Based on multi-candidate question. [Details]
TARRANCE/LAKE/VOTER.COM. Includes final vote projection.

.

.

TRIAL HEATS Based on multi-candidate question. [Details]
CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR/INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY/TIPP. Includes final vote projection.
ttrend.gif (2298 bytes)

.

.

BUSH Favorability Rating [Details]
FOX NEWS/OPINION DYNAMICS, selected trend
GORE Favorability Rating [Details]
FOX NEWS/OPINION DYNAMICS, selected trend
bushfav.gif (2981 bytes) gorefav.gif (3078 bytes)

.

.

BUSH'S DRUNKEN DRIVING ARREST
PEW RESEARCH CENTER POLL. Nov. 3-4, 2000. N=794 registered voters nationwide.

.

"How closely have you been following news reports that George W. Bush was arrested for drunk driving in 1976? Have you been following this very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?"
%
Very closely 25
Fairly closely 28
Not too closely 26
Not at all closely 19
Don't know 2

.

Asked of those who are following the story:
"Has this story raised serious doubts in your mind about voting for George W. Bush, or is this not a serious consideration for you?"
%
Raised serious doubts 11
Not a serious consideration 88
Don't know 1

.

Asked of those who are following the story:
"Some have accused the Democrats of being behind the release of this story because it’s so close to the election. Has this charge against the Democrats raised serious doubts in your mind about voting for Al Gore, is this not a serious consideration for you, or have you not heard this charge?"
%
Raised serious doubts 12
Not a serious consideration 77
Have not heard this charge 9
Don't know 2

.

.

ABC NEWS POLL. Nov. 3, 2000. N=697 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

Support . . .
ALL Gore Bush
% % %
"Have you read or heard anything about George W. Bush being arrested for drunken driving in 1976?"
Yes 91 90 91
No 9 10 8

.

"Does knowing about this arrest raise questions in your mind about whether Bush is qualified to be president, or not?"
Yes 15 25 5
No 84 74 95
No opinion 1 1 1

.

"As a result of the reports about Bush's drunken driving arrest in 1976, are you [rotate] more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or won't it make any difference in your vote?"
More likely 5 1 9
Less likely 7 15 1
Won't make any difference 87 84 89
No opinion 1 0 1

.

"Do you think Bush's drunken driving arrest in 1976 is or is not relevant to the presidential race?"
Is relevant 17 30 5
Is not relevant 82 69 94
No opinion 1 2 1

.

.

SECOND THOUGHTS . . .
CNN/TIME POLL. Oct. 25-26, 2000. N=2,060 adults nationwide. MoE +/- 2.2.
"Now here is a question that asks you to compare your economic situation today with your economic situation eight years ago. Do you think you are better off today than you were eight years ago?"

1028.gif (885 bytes)

.

NBC NEWS/WALL STREET JOURNAL POLL. Oct. 13-15, 2000. N=500 registered voters nationwide.
"Looking ahead four years from now, how much do you think it will matter whether George W. Bush or Al Gore is elected president in November? Do you think it will matter a great deal, quite a bit, just some, or not very much at all?"

1020.gif (1305 bytes)

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