Election 2012

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Election 2012 See also: Potential presidential contenders

[ STATE ELECTION POLLS are in our subscriber area. ]

Daily Kos poll conducted by Research 2000. Feb. 1-4, 2010. N=2,400 adults nationwide. MoE ą 2.
					.
"If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you reelect Barack Obama, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Obama?"
					.
		Reelect Obama	Consider Another	Replace Obama	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	2/1-4/10	44	11	42	3

Marist College Marist Poll. Feb. 1-3, 2010. N=910 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5.
					.
"If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Barack Obama, the Democrat, Sarah Palin, the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg, the independent?"
					.
		Barack Obama (D)	Sarah Palin (R)	Michael Bloomberg (I)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	2/1-3/10	44	29	15	12

Daily Kos poll conducted by Research 2000. Jan. 20-31, 2010. N=2,003 self-identified Republicans nationwide. MoE ą 2.
			.
"If the 2012 primary for president were held today, which of the following would you vote for: [see below]?" Options rotated
			.
		%	.
	Sarah Palin	16	.
	Mitt Romney	11	.
	Dick Cheney	10	.
	Newt Gingrich	7	.
	Mike Huckabee	7	.
	Tim Pawlenty	3	.
	Ron Paul	2	.
	John Thune	2	.
	Unsure	42	.

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 12-13, 2010. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
					.
"If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to reelect Barack Obama, probably vote to reelect Obama, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else?"
					.
		Definitely Obama	Probably Obama	Probably Someone Else	Definitely Someone Else	Too Soon (vol.)/Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/12-13/10	23	20	11	36	11
	10/13-14/09	26	17	14	34	9
	4/22-23/09	37	15	8	23	16
					.
"What if the candidates were [see below]?" Options rotated
					.
		Barack Obama (D)	Mitt Romney (R)	Other (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/12-13/10	47	35	5	3	10
					.
		Barack Obama (D)	Sarah Palin (R)	Other (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/12-13/10	55	31	4	4	5
					.
		Barack Obama (D)	Newt Gingrich (R)	Other (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/12-13/10	53	29	5	4	9
					.
"What if the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and a candidate from the Tea Party movement?" Options rotated
					.
		Barack Obama (D)	Tea Party Candidate	Other (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/12-13/10	48	23	5	5	18

Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor National Survey conducted by FD. Jan. 3-7, 2010. N=1,200 adults nationwide. MoE ą 2.8.
					.
"If the election for president in 2012 were held today, would you definitely vote to reelect Obama, probably vote to reelect Obama, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else?"
					.
		Definitely Obama	Probably Obama	Probably Someone Else	Definitely Someone Else	Unsure/ Refused
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/3-7/10	23	16	13	37	10

Washington Post Poll. Nov. 19-23, 2009. Nationwide.
					.
"Thinking ahead to 2012, at this point would you definitely vote to reelect Obama, would you consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?" N=1,306 adults, MoE ą 3
					.
		Definitely Vote For	Consider Voting For	Definitely Not Vote For	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	11/19-23/09	24	31	41	4
					.
"If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?" N=804 Republicans and Republican-leaning nonpartisans
					.
		%			.
	Sarah Palin	17			.
	Mike Huckabee	10			.
	Mitt Romney	9			.
	John McCain	7			.
	Newt Gingrich	2			.
	Bobby Jindal	1			.
	Ron Paul	1			.
	Rudy Giuliani	1			.
	Tim Pawlenty	1			.
	Other	8			.
	No one	12			.
	Wouldn't vote	2			.
	Unsure	28			.

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Nov. 12-16, 2009. N=847 likely voters nationwide.
					.
"I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader and America First Party Candidate Lou Dobbs, for whom would you vote?" Results include leaners
						.
		Barack Obama (D)	Mitt Romney (R)	Lou Dobbs (AFP)	Ralph Nader (Green)	Other (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%	%
	11/12-16/09	45	38	6	4	2	5

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Nov. 13-15, 2009. N=1,014 adults nationwide. MoE ą 3.
					.
"Please tell me whether you think each of the following is or is not qualified to be president. . . ."
					.
		Is Qualified	Is Not Qualified	Unsure
		%	%	%
					.
	Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
	11/13-15/09	67	32	1
					.
	Vice President Joe Biden
	11/13-15/09	50	48	3
					.
	Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney
	11/13-15/09	47	42	11
					.
	Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee
	11/13-15/09	43	47	10
					.
	Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin
	11/13-15/09	28	70	2

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009. N=1,021 adults nationwide. MoE ą 4 (for all adults). Per Gallup: "These questions were asked of random half-samples for two nights of Gallup Daily polling, which interviews 1,000 U.S. adults each night."
					.
"Next, I'm going to read you a list of possible Republican candidates in the 2012 presidential election. Please tell me whether you would, or would not, seriously consider supporting each for president. How about . . . ?"
					.
		Would	Would Not	Unsure	.
		%	%	%	.
					.
	Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee
	ALL	40	51	10	.
	Republicans	71	.	.	.
	Independents	40	.	.	.
	Democrats	18	.	.	.
					.
	Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney
	ALL	39	51	11	.
	Republicans	65	.	.	.
	Independents	40	.	.	.
	Democrats	20	.	.	.
					.
	Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin
	ALL	33	63	5	.
	Republicans	65	.	.	.
	Independents	32	.	.	.
	Democrats	10	.	.	.
					.
	Former House speaker Newt Gingrich
	ALL	29	63	9	.
	Republicans	60	.	.	.
	Independents	28	.	.	.
	Democrats	8	.	.	.
					.
	Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
	ALL	18	60	22	.
	Republicans	32	.	.	.
	Independents	17	.	.	.
	Democrats	11	.	.	.
					.
	Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour
	ALL	15	65	21	.
	Republicans	26	.	.	.
	Independents	15	.	.	.
	Democrats	7	.	.	.
					.
"Please tell me whether you think each of the following people is or is not qualified to be president. How about . . . ?"
					.
		Is	Is Not	Unsure	.
		%	%	%	.
					.
	Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee
	ALL	50	36	14	.
	Republicans	72	.	.	.
	Independents	48	.	.	.
	Democrats	38	.	.	.
					.
	Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney
	ALL	49	39	12	.
	Republicans	71	.	.	.
	Independents	45	.	.	.
	Democrats	37	.	.	.
					.
	Former House speaker Newt Gingrich
	ALL	44	46	10	.
	Republicans	68	.	.	.
	Independents	39	.	.	.
	Democrats	32	.	.	.
					.
	Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin
	ALL	31	62	7	.
	Republicans	58	.	.	.
	Independents	28	.	.	.
	Democrats	14	.	.	.
					.
	Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
	ALL	25	51	25	.
	Republicans	33	.	.	.
	Independents	23	.	.	.
	Democrats	21	.	.	.
					.
	Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour
	ALL	18	57	26	.
	Republicans	27	.	.	.
	Independents	15	.	.	.
	Democrats	12	.	.	.

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 16-18, 2009. N=462 Republicans nationwide. MoE ą 4.5.
			.
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty." Options rotated
			.
		%	.
	Mike Huckabee	32	.
	Sarah Palin	25	.
	Mitt Romney	21	.
	Tim Pawlenty	5	.
	Someone else	10	.
	No one (vol.)	5	.
	Unsure	1	.

Clarus Research Group. Aug. 14-18, 2009. Registered voters nationwide.
					.
"If the next presidential election were held today, and the two candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican [see below], for whom would you vote?" N=1,003 registered voters, MoE ą 3.1
					.
		Barack Obama (D)	Mitt Romney (R)	Unsure
		%	%	%
	8/14-18/09	47	38	15
					.
		Barack Obama (D)	Mike Huckabee (R)	Unsure
		%	%	%
	8/14-18/09	48	38	15
					.
		Barack Obama (D)	Sarah Palin (R)	Unsure
		%	%	%
	8/14-18/09	53	34	13
					.
		Barack Obama (D)	Newt Gingrich (R)	Unsure
		%	%	%
	8/14-18/09	52	34	15
					.
"Of the following possible candidates for the next Republican presidential nomination, which one would you now most likely favor: [see below]?" N=353 Republicans and independents who lean Republican
					.
		%
	Mitt Romney	30
	Mike Huckabee	22
	Sarah Palin	18
	Newt Gingrich	15
	Bobby Jindal	4
	Someone else (vol.)	2
	Unsure	10

Marist College Marist Poll. Aug. 3-6, 2009. Nationwide.
					.
"If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?" N=310 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, MoE ą 5.5
					.
		%
	Mitt Romney	21
	Sarah Palin	20
	Mike Huckabee	19
	Newt Gingrich	10
	Bobby Jindal	5
	Tim Pawlenty	1
	Unsure	24
					.
"If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, and Sarah Palin, the Republican candidate?" N=854 registered voters, MoE ą 3.5
					.
		Barack Obama (D)	Sarah Palin (R)	Unsure
		%	%	%
	8/3-6/09	56	33	11

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). July 24-27, 2009. N=1,011 adults nationwide. MoE ą 3.1.
					.
"Would you like to see Sarah Palin as president some day, or not?"
					.
		Would	Would Not	Unsure
		%	%	%
	7/24-27/09	21	67	12
					.
"Would you like to see Mitt Romney as president some day, or not?"
					.
		Would	Would Not	Unsure
		%	%	%
	7/24-27/09	24	50	26

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. July 21-22, 2009. N=303 Republican voters nationwide. MoE ą 6.
				.
"I'm going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination. Please tell me which one you would like to see as the Republican presidential nominee. . . ." Options rotated
				.
				.
		7/21-22/09	5/12-13/09	.
		%	%	.
	Mitt Romney	22	18	.
	Mike Huckabee	21	20	.
	Sarah Palin	17	13	.
	Rudy Giuliani	13	12	.
	Newt Gingrich	9	14	.
	Bobby Jindal	3	3	.
	Jeb Bush	1	3	.
	Tim Pawlenty	1	n/a	.
	Mark Sanford	-	4	.
	Someone else (vol.)	1	3	.
	Too soon to say (vol.)	10	7	.
	Unsure	2	4	.

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. July 15-18, 2009. N=1,001 adults nationwide. Results below are among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
			.
"If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"
			.
		%	.
	Mike Huckabee	26	.
	Mitt Romney	21	.
	Sarah Palin	19	.
	Newt Gingrich	10	.
	Tim Pawlenty	4	.
	Jeb Bush	3	.
	Haley Barbour	1	.
	Bobby Jindal (vol.)	2	.
	Other (vol.)	2	.
	None of these (vol.)	5	.
	Wouldn't vote (vol.)	1	.
	Unsure	6	.

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by FD. July 9-13, 2009. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5.
					.
"Looking ahead to 2012, if the presidential election were held today, would you vote to reelect Barack Obama or would you like to see someone else become president?"
					.
		Obama	Someone Else	Too Early (vol.)	Unsure/ Refused
		%	%	%	%
	7/9-13/09	42	39	13	6
	6/4-7/09	46	30	18	5
	4/23-26/09	45	32	18	4

Gallup Poll. July 10-12, 2009. N=455 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ą 5.
			.
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2012, or if you would support someone else: Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney." Options rotated
			.
		%	.
	Mitt Romney	26	.
	Sarah Palin	21	.
	Mike Huckabee	19	.
	Newt Gingrich	14	.
	Tim Pawlenty	3	.
	Haley Barbour	2	.
	Other (vol.)	4	.
	Any/All/None (vol.)	3	.
	Unsure	7	.

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. May 14-17, 2009. N=448 Republicans nationwide. MoE ą 4.5.
			.
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Florida governor Jeb Bush." Options rotated
			.
		%	.
	Mike Huckabee	22	.
	Sarah Palin	21	.
	Mitt Romney	21	.
	Newt Gingrich	13	.
	Jeb Bush	6	.
	Someone else	10	.
	No one (vol.)	3	.
	Unsure	4	.

Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll. April 19-21, 2009. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5.
					.
"Now, based on President Obama's performance to date and looking ahead to the 2012 presidential election: Do you think you will vote to reelect Barack Obama, consider voting for someone else, or will you vote to replace Barack Obama?"
					.
		Reelect Obama	Consider Someone Else	Replace Obama	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	4/19-21/09	42	22	24	11

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. April 8-11, 2009. N=833 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5 (for all registered voters).
					.
"And if the election for president were held today, would you definitely vote to reelect Barack Obama, probably vote to reelect Barack Obama, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else for president?" Options rotated
					.
		Definitely Obama	Probably Obama	Probably Someone Else	Definitely Someone Else	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	ALL	32	18	13	26	11
	Republicans	5	8	24	53	8
	Independents	24	22	13	24	17
	Democrats	61	24	4	6	5

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Feb. 18-19, 2009. N=429 Republicans nationwide. MoE ą 4.5.
			.
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal."
			.
		%	.
	Sarah Palin	29	.
	Mike Huckabee	26	.
	Mitt Romney	21	.
	Bobby Jindal	9	.
	Someone else	10	.
	None/No one (vol.)	4	.
	Unsure	2	.

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Dec. 1-2, 2008. N=460 Republicans nationwide. MoE ą 4.5.
					.
"I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. For each one, please tell me whether you would be very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decided to run for the Republican nomination four years from now. . . ."
					.
		Very Likely	Somewhat Likely	Not Very Likely	Not Likely At All	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
					.
	Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee
	12/1-2/08	34	31	21	13	1
					.
	Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
	12/1-2/08	32	35	21	12	-
					.
	Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney
	12/1-2/08	28	33	23	13	3
					.
	Former House speaker Newt Gingrich
	12/1-2/08	27	25	28	19	1
					.
	Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani
	12/1-2/08	23	34	24	18	-
					.
	Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
	12/1-2/08	19	25	33	16	7
					.
	Florida Governor Charlie Crist
	12/1-2/08	7	25	40	20	7

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2008. N=950 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3 (for all registered voters).
					.
"If Barack Obama is NOT elected president in November, would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose Hillary Clinton if she ran for president four years from now?"
					.
		Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Somewhat Oppose	Strongly Oppose	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	ALL	37	23	13	27	1
	Democrats	63	27	3	6	1
	Independents	29	29	16	25	2
	Republicans	12	12	21	55	1
					.
"If John McCain is NOT elected president in November, would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose Sarah Palin if she ran for president four years from now?"
					.
		Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Somewhat Oppose	Strongly Oppose	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	ALL	22	18	13	46	1
	Democrats	3	7	10	78	1
	Independents	20	21	16	42	1
	Republicans	46	31	13	9	1

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 22-23, 2008. Registered Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide, from a total sample of 1,092 registered voters.
					.
"Thinking ahead to the next presidential election: If John McCain is not elected president in November, would you like to see Sarah Palin run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, or not?"
					.
		Yes	No	Unsure	.
		%	%	%	.
	10/22-23/08	44	38	18	.
					.
"If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012: [see below]?" Options rotated
					.
		Mitt Romney	Mike Huckabee	Sarah Palin	Someone Else (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	10/22-23/08	35	26	20	10	9

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